Politics Predictions & Real-Time Odds | Polymarket

US government shutdown Saturday?

Politics

US government shutdown Saturday?

$82m Vol.

$31m today

$5m Liq.

3

100%

$82m Vol.

$31m today

$5m Liq.

3

Fed decision in March?

Politics

Fed decision in March?

$34m Vol.

$13m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

89%

No change

$34m Vol.

$13m today

$4m Liq.

418

Ends in about 1 month

US strikes Iran by...?

Politics

US strikes Iran by...?

$145m Vol.

$12m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

63%

June 30

$145m Vol.

$12m today

$1m Liq.

2

Ends in 5 months

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Politics

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

$361m Vol.

$10m today

$45m Liq.

1,083

Ends in 11 months

98%

Kevin Warsh

$361m Vol.

$10m today

$45m Liq.

1,083

Ends in 11 months

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

$581m Vol.

$7m today

$27m Liq.

463

Ends in almost 3 years

34%

Gavin Newsom

$581m Vol.

$7m today

$27m Liq.

463

Ends in almost 3 years

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics

Presidential Election Winner 2028

$241m Vol.

$5m today

$18m Liq.

611

Ends in almost 3 years

26%

JD Vance

$241m Vol.

$5m today

$18m Liq.

611

Ends in almost 3 years

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Politics

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

$235m Vol.

$5m today

$12m Liq.

231

Ends in almost 3 years

50%

J.D. Vance

$235m Vol.

$5m today

$12m Liq.

231

Ends in almost 3 years

How long will the Government Shutdown last?

Politics

How long will the Government Shutdown last?

$7m Vol.

$3m today

$746k Liq.

332

Ends in about 2 months

100%

3+ days

$7m Vol.

$3m today

$746k Liq.

332

Ends in about 2 months

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026?

Politics

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026?

$10m Vol.

$2m today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 2 days

27%

360-379

$10m Vol.

$2m today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 2 days

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

Politics

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

$9m Vol.

$1m today

$86.1k Liq.

288

Ends in 14 days

78%

December 31

$9m Vol.

$1m today

$86.1k Liq.

288

Ends in 14 days

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

Politics

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

$2m Vol.

$1m today

$933k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

13%

380-399

$2m Vol.

$1m today

$933k Liq.

Ends in 9 days

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

US next strikes Iran on...?

$28m Vol.

$1m today

$202k Liq.

100%

No strike by January 31

$28m Vol.

$1m today

$202k Liq.

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Politics

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

$17m Vol.

$874k today

$364k Liq.

<1%

$17m Vol.

$874k today

$364k Liq.

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

Politics

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

$3m Vol.

$752k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 5 days

14%

360-379

$3m Vol.

$752k today

$1m Liq.

Ends in 5 days

US next strikes Iran on...?

Politics

US next strikes Iran on...?

$2m Vol.

$719k today

$373k Liq.

Ends in 27 days

60%

No strike by February 28

$2m Vol.

$719k today

$373k Liq.

Ends in 27 days

Costa Rica Presidential Election

Politics

Costa Rica Presidential Election

$3m Vol.

$604k today

$280k Liq.

111

95%

Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado

$3m Vol.

$604k today

$280k Liq.

111

Elon Musk # tweets January 31 - February 2, 2026?

Politics

Elon Musk # tweets January 31 - February 2, 2026?

$776k Vol.

$508k today

$132k Liq.

Ends in 1 day

46%

90-114

$776k Vol.

$508k today

$132k Liq.

Ends in 1 day

Who will Trump talk to in January?

Politics

Who will Trump talk to in January?

$7m Vol.

$508k today

$42.0k Liq.

22%

Vladimir Putin

$7m Vol.

$508k today

$42.0k Liq.

Next Country US Strikes

Politics

Next Country US Strikes

$5m Vol.

$368k today

$14m Liq.

Ends in 11 months

<1%

None before 2027

$5m Vol.

$368k today

$14m Liq.

Ends in 11 months

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Politics

Next leader out of power before 2027?

$4m Vol.

$346k today

$233k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

77%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

$4m Vol.

$346k today

$233k Liq.

Ends in 11 months

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