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Geopolitics

All Iran Ukraine Venezuela Ukraine Peace Deal Ukraine Map Gaza Israel Sudan China Thailand-Cambodia Middle East Foreign Policy India-Pakistan South Korea Yemen Syria Turkey

US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

February 1

1%

February 2

3%

February 1

1%

February 2

3%

$145m Vol.

Monthly

US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

February 15

21%

February 28

41%

February 15

21%

February 28

41%

$9m Vol.

US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

$28m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

<1%

chance

$17m Vol.

Monthly

US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 2026

<1%

February 1

1%

January 2026

<1%

February 1

1%

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Costa Rica Presidential Election card icon

Costa Rica Presidential Election

Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado

92%

Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves

7%

Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado

92%

Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves

7%

$3m Vol.

Who will Trump talk to in January? card icon

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

15%

chance

$7m Vol.

Monthly

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

14%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Next Country US Strikes card icon

Will the US not strike another country before 2027?

<1%

chance

$5m Vol.

Monthly

Next leader out of power before 2027? card icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Schoof - Netherlands PM

76%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

14%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

76%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

14%

$4m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?

13%

chance

$12m Vol.

Next Country US Strikes card icon

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

85%

Iran

11%

Somalia

85%

Iran

11%

NEW

•

$359k Vol.

Monthly

Venezuela leader end of 2026? card icon

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Delcy Rodríguez

61%

María Corina Machado

16%

Delcy Rodríguez

61%

María Corina Machado

16%

$14m Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? card icon

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

March 31

3%

December 31

12%

March 31

3%

December 31

12%

$14m Vol.

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...? card icon

Will Khamenei leave Iran by...?

February 28

5%

March 31

10%

February 28

5%

March 31

10%

$7m Vol.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? card icon

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

25%

chance

$8m Vol.

Daily

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? card icon

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

14%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Iran Strike on Israel by...? card icon

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 31

<1%

February 28

37%

January 31

<1%

February 28

37%

$1m Vol.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? card icon

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

5%

chance

$1m Vol.

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? card icon

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

23%

chance

$7m Vol.

The World's Largest Prediction Market™

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