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All Trump Epstein Venezuela Midterms Primaries Minnesota Unrest US Election Trade War Congress Global Elections NYC Mayor Ukraine Mayoral Elections Courts Gaza Israel Cabinet Senate

Politics

All Trump Epstein Venezuela Midterms Primaries Minnesota Unrest US Election Trade War Congress Global Elections NYC Mayor Ukraine Mayoral Elections Courts Gaza Israel Cabinet Senate

US government shutdown Saturday? card icon

US government shutdown Saturday?

100%

chance

$81m Vol.

Daily

Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

8%

50+ bps decrease

2%

25 bps decrease

8%

$33m Vol.

Monthly

US strikes Iran by...? card icon

US strikes Iran by...?

February 1

1%

February 2

3%

February 1

1%

February 2

3%

$145m Vol.

Monthly

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

99%

Judy Shelton

1%

Kevin Warsh

99%

Judy Shelton

1%

$361m Vol.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 card icon

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom

34%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

8%

Gavin Newsom

34%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

8%

$581m Vol.

Presidential Election Winner 2028 card icon

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance

26%

Gavin Newsom

20%

JD Vance

26%

Gavin Newsom

20%

$240m Vol.

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 card icon

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

J.D. Vance

50%

Marco Rubio

14%

J.D. Vance

50%

Marco Rubio

14%

$235m Vol.

How long will the Government Shutdown last? card icon

How long will the Government Shutdown last?

3+ days

100%

4+ days

97%

3+ days

100%

4+ days

97%

$7m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 27 - February 3, 2026?

240-259

<1%

260-279

<1%

240-259

<1%

260-279

<1%

$10m Vol.

Weekly

US/Israel strikes Iran by...? card icon

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

February 15

22%

February 28

41%

February 15

22%

February 28

41%

$9m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets February 3 - February 10, 2026?

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

<20

<1%

20-39

<1%

NEW

•

$1m Vol.

Weekly

US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

$28m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? card icon

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

<1%

chance

$17m Vol.

Monthly

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 30 - February 6, 2026?

60-79

<1%

80-99

<1%

60-79

<1%

80-99

<1%

$3m Vol.

Weekly

US next strikes Iran on...? card icon

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 2026

<1%

February 1

1%

January 2026

<1%

February 1

1%

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Costa Rica Presidential Election card icon

Costa Rica Presidential Election

Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado

92%

Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves

7%

Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado

92%

Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves

7%

$3m Vol.

Elon Musk # tweets January 31 - February 2, 2026? card icon

Elon Musk # tweets January 31 - February 2, 2026?

<40

<1%

40-64

4%

<40

<1%

40-64

4%

$719k Vol.

Daily

Who will Trump talk to in January? card icon

Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January?

14%

chance

$7m Vol.

Monthly

Next Country US Strikes card icon

Will the US not strike another country before 2027?

<1%

chance

$5m Vol.

Monthly

Next leader out of power before 2027? card icon

Next leader out of power before 2027?

Schoof - Netherlands PM

76%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

14%

Schoof - Netherlands PM

76%

Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader

14%

$4m Vol.

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