Geopolitics

US strikes Iran by...?

February 1

February 2

February 1

February 2

$145m Vol.

Monthly

US/Israel strikes Iran by...?

February 15

23%

February 28

43%

February 15

23%

February 28

43%

$9m Vol.

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

January 30

<1%

January 31

<1%

$28m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

<1%

chance

$17m Vol.

Monthly

US next strikes Iran on...?

January 2026

<1%

February 1

January 2026

<1%

February 1

$2m Vol.

Monthly

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

14%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Will the US not strike another country before 2027?

<1%

chance

$5m Vol.

Monthly

Next Country US Strikes

Somalia

85%

Iran

11%

Somalia

85%

Iran

11%

NEW

•

$362k Vol.

Monthly

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

26%

chance

$8m Vol.

Daily

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

12%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Iran Strike on Israel by...?

January 31

<1%

February 28

36%

January 31

<1%

February 28

36%

$1m Vol.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

51%

chance

$2m Vol.

Daily

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by...?

March 31

20%

June 30

29%

March 31

20%

June 30

29%

$490k Vol.

Weekly

Will Israel strike Gaza on...?

February 1

62%

February 2

36%

February 1

62%

February 2

36%

$82k Vol.

Daily

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

February 1

90%

February 2

63%

February 1

90%

February 2

63%

$89k Vol.

Daily

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

36%

chance

$3m Vol.

Monthly

Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?

36%

chance

$212k Vol.

Monthly

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

March 31, 2026

37%

June 30

56%

March 31, 2026

37%

June 30

56%

$2m Vol.

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?

36%

chance

$4m Vol.

Daily

Iran strike on Qatar by January 31? card icon

Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?

21%

chance

$96k Vol.

Middle East Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

Geopolitics

Geopolitics