Retail Market Analysis

🎁 I'm delighted to launch our latest research in partnership with Vinted which reveals a fascinating shift in Christmas shopping behaviour. Second-hand gifting is set to hit £2bn, accounting for over 10% of all gift spending. ➡️ Key Findings: 💠£2bn expected to be spent on 2nd hand gifts 💠Nearly 2/3rds (63%) of 2nd hand shoppers have bought pre-loved items as Christmas gifts before, rising to 79% of those aged 25 to 34 💠43% are selling items to fund their Christmas shopping 💠63% are comfortable receiving 2nd hand gifts What fascinates me about our research isn't just the scale - it's the profound implications for retail's future operating model. ♻️ Category Disruption There's virtually no stigma attached to buying pre-loved. It's a badge of honour for many. When 63% of consumers are comfortable receiving second-hand items, it fundamentally challenges the traditional retail model. I think this is especially the case in luxury and children's wear. Luxury retailers need to rethink their value equation - when scarcity and uniqueness can be achieved through pre-loved channels, what becomes their differentiator? 🌐 The Parallel Consumption Economy Traditional retailers are operating in parallel with a rapidly growing secondary market that's becoming increasingly mainstream. With 53% of under-45s buying second-hand monthly, we're not witnessing simple channel shift - we're seeing the emergence of a sophisticated parallel economy with its own rules, behaviours and value drivers. It's a fundamental expansion of how retail value is created and captured. Product attributes that support strong residual value - quality, durability, timeless design - are becoming a more important as consumers account for future resale potential. The vast majority (84%) of Vinted buyers said that they find the quality of second-hand items bought on Vinted as good or even better than new items.  Here's where it gets really interesting. 🔄 The Pre-loved Market Multiplier Products are becoming value multipliers through repeated resale cycles. A single item can generate value many times over as it changes hands. Take a luxury handbag - it might be resold 10 times or more in its lifetime, with cumulative transaction values potentially exceeding the original price. This creates a fascinating dynamic where: ➡️ Product provenance becomes a critical value driver ➡️ Provenance data become strategic assets ➡️ Recoverable value becomes a purchase driver ➡️ Brands have opportunities to capture value from secondary sales (Think 2nd hand cars) The implications are clear: retailers need to stop viewing the second-hand market as a separate ecosystem and start seeing it as an integral part of their customer's journey. Successful retailers won't just sell products once - they'll capture value throughout a product's entire lifetime journey. (Research findings covered in the BBC, The Guardian, Independent, Retail Week, Retail Gazette, Drapers and others).

The failure of Five Guys in Germany is more than just a story about overpriced burgers — it’s a masterclass in cultural misalignment. When American brands expand into Europe, I always say: market entry is the ultimate pressure test for your marketing playbook. If you haven’t defined your value proposition sharply enough, you can’t adapt it to local culture and friction is guaranteed. Five Guys entered Germany with a US-centric model: premium fast food, higher prices, low marketing, and the belief that quality would speak for itself. But in Germany, it didn’t. A good example is their German Instagram channel. One of their posts promotes Milkshake Mix-in flavors of “Reese’s ” or “Cinnamon Bun”. In the US, these are nostalgic, beloved, high-recognition brands. In Germany? Reese’s has niche awareness, Cinnamon Bun is not a cultural staple, and neither triggers emotional resonance. To be successful in Germany you need to understand the Germans: 1. Price sensitivity & uncertainty avoidance – Germans value structure, reliability, and rational decision-making. Paying twice as much for a burger with no clear differentiation simply didn’t add up - and the macroeconomic environment didn't help. 2. Individualism vs. collectivism – American brands often sell an emotional “have it your way” narrative. In Germany, shared experiences and consistency matters. 3. Long-term orientation – German consumers reward brands that invest locally, adapt to culture, and show commitment — not those that copy-paste global playbooks. Localization isn’t about translation. It’s about resonance. It’s understanding what people value, what they expect from brands, and what will actually make them care. In my work with US companies expanding into Europe, I’ve seen it repeatedly: those who adapt thrive. Those who don’t become case studies. #Localization #GlobalMarketing #BrandStrategy #CulturalIntelligence #Hofstede #MarketEntry #FiveGuys #MarketingLeadership

Understanding the Canadian Retail Landscape (Where the Real Decisions Are Made) If you’re selling into Canada… you’re not selling to a country. You’re selling to a small group of head offices controlling billions in shelf space. And if you don’t know where they sit—you’re already behind. Ask me for directions 😁 🧠 National Power Centers (Grocery + Mass) * Loblaw Companies Limited — Brampton, Ontario * Sobeys Inc. — Stellarton, Nova Scotia * Metro Inc. — Montreal, Quebec * Walmart Canada — Mississauga, Ontario * Costco Wholesale Canada — Ottawa, Ontario * Canadian Tire Corporation — Toronto, Ontario 🏪 DIY / Home Improvement (True Category Gatekeepers) * Home Depot Canada — Toronto, Ontario * RONA Inc. — Boucherville, Quebec * Home Hardware Stores Limited — St. Jacobs, Ontario * Timber Mart — Calgary, Alberta * Kent Building Supplies — Saint John, New Brunswick * Princess Auto — Winnipeg, Manitoba * Peavey Industries — Red Deer, Alberta 👉 This is where a lot of brands get it wrong: DIY in Canada is not just big box—it’s also dealer networks + regional powerhouses. 🏪 Regional & Discount Players (Scale + Influence) * Dollarama — Montreal, Quebec * Giant Tiger — Ottawa, Ontario * Save-On-Foods — Langley, British Columbia * London Drugs — Richmond, British Columbia * Farm Boy — Ottawa, Ontario 📍 The Reality (RGM Lens) Canada looks national. But retail power is highly centralized + regionally nuanced: * Toronto / GTA → Mass, Grocery, DIY command center * Montreal → Quebec buying power * Stellarton → Sobeys Inc. empire * Atlantic Canada → Kent Building Supplies regional strength * Western Canada → Dealer networks like Timber Mart ⚠️ The Mistake Most brands build a “Canada strategy.” Instead of: 👉 A Head Office + Network strategy Because: * National chains = centralized decisions * DIY networks = distributed buying influence * Merchants control space, displays, and velocity 👉 Especially in DIY: If you don’t win the bay… you don’t exist. 🚀 How You Actually Win Align to: * The merchant’s category scorecard * Margin + turns expectations * Your PPA fit to shelf + project-based buying * Your ability to drive category growth—not just share Canada isn’t one market. It’s a network of buying desks + dealer networks controlling the shelf. Win the desk… win the dealer… you win the country.

Same title. Very different job. You’d be surprised how often it happens: A global FMCG company opens a “Marketing Director” role in Europe, but writes the job description like it’s for a New York startup. Or they relocate a high-performing U.S. marketer into Paris, expecting the same results… only to find things don’t translate, literally or culturally. Here’s the truth I’ve seen play out over 12+ years of executive search across global markets: → A “Marketing Director” in the U.S. is expected to drive bold moves, launch fast, and own a P&L. → A “Marketing Director” in Europe is often navigating complex matrix structures, multi-country portfolios, and long-term brand equity, with less direct autonomy. Same title. Completely different expectations. And that’s where things break down. According to the McKinsey Global CMO Pulse 2024, 62% of global marketing leaders say they’ve encountered serious “role misalignment” when hiring across regions. Global titles like “Marketing Director,” “GM,” or even “Head of Innovation” are not standardized; they carry regional expectations based on org design, consumer dynamics, and leadership norms. In the U.S., the marketing director might be expected to: → Launch fast with minimal layers → Own end-to-end brand performance → Drive consumer-first innovation autonomously In Europe, that same title often requires: → Building alignment across local markets and global HQ → Managing multiple agency partners across regions → Driving long-term brand building within a regulated environment So what’s the fix? → Don’t just copy-paste job descriptions across regions. → Define outcomes first. What does success look like in-market? → Calibrate scope and influence — not just salary bands. → Hire for leadership context, not just category expertise. → And if you're hiring internationally, work with people who understand both ecosystems. At LS International, we spend just as much time decoding leadership context as we do sourcing candidates. Because a great hire in Chicago might fall flat in Frankfurt, not because they’re not talented, but because the expectations were lost in translation. The best global companies I work with get this. They build roles around impact, not just title. And they onboard with cultural fluency not assumption. Because when you hire with regional nuance in mind? You don’t just fill a position. You build a leader who lasts. #ExecutiveSearch #FMCGLeadership #GlobalHiring #MarketingLeadership #USvsEurope #TalentStrategy #ConsumerGoods

🔮 Four Levels Of Customer Understanding (https://lnkd.in/eJFghrDe), how to think of underlying reasons for user behavior, hidden motivations, root causes and the different layers of reality that are often overlooked in product design — from what people say to what they think or feel to what they actually do to reasons why they do it. By Hannah Shamji and Helio. 🤔 What people do, say, think and feel are often different. 🚫 Assumptions and hunches rely on most obvious reasons. ✅ But most obvious reasons rarely paint the full picture. ✅ People don’t always cancel because they actually want to. ✅ Pricing is never the only reason why people don’t buy. 🤔 Customers often don’t realize why they made a decision. ✅ We built understanding by studying 4 levels of reality. ✅ Level 1: “What we tell others”, unreliable, opinions, hearsay. ✅ Level 2: “What we tell ourselves”, interviews, debrief, surveys. ✅ Level 3: “What we actually do”, task analysis, observation. ✅ Level 4: “Why we do it”, task walkthroughs, context, interviews. Level 1 is most unreliable, and barely brings good insights. Often people imagine and say things that don’t necessarily represent real reasons for their behavior. They rather explain behavior through the lens of how a customer perceives it, or wants it to be perceived. The real magic happens on higher levels. But they require right questions, interviews and observations and, most importantly, user’s trust. So ask people to walk you through their daily routine. Explain to you where your product fits in their life. Observe how they complete their tasks in their environment. Study where they lose time, repeat actions, hover but don’t click, or click and then go back. Don’t ask them to speak loudly. Pay attention to when they scratch their neck, or raise their eyebrows. Smile, or laugh, or look worried. Many companies speak about “validation”. Yet validation often means accepting and confirming existing assumptions. As Hannah Shamji writes, instead, we should diagnose existing behavior without any preconceived notions or affiliations. So don’t validate — research instead. The hardest part is understanding customer’s real motivations — and the only way to get there is by building a sincere, honest and trustworthy relationship. A relationship that feels right. One that customers can wholeheartedly engage in. Once your customers really care and want to help, getting to real understanding will be much, much easier. (Leaving useful resources in the comments below due to LinkedIn link policy ↓)

There’s a stark contrast emerging across Australia’s retail landscape. On one side, we have the ’dinosaurs’, once-iconic apparel giants now facing systemic decline. Take Rip Curl and Kathmandu, owned by KMD Brands Limited, which are closing 21 stores as part of a broader “Next Level” transformation. The group is grappling with falling sales, a halved share price in 12 months, and the urgent need to revitalise through refreshed formats, digital upgrades, and stronger data intelligence. . Then there’s Country Road Group, which is in even more peril. The brand posted a staggering A$124 million loss in fiscal 2025. Sales are down across the board, margins are being slashed by heavy discounting, and the fallout from internal restructuring and reputational issues continues to take its toll. A nearly A$79 million brand impairment by the holding company and ongoing store closures signal deepening distress. . In sharp contrast, Australia’s homegrown challengers are not just enduring, they’re thriving. Brands like Proud Poppy Clothing, Billini, Arms Of Eve, and LSKD are all expanding their retail footprints nationwide. These nimble operators are delivering modern brand experiences, maintaining healthy margins, resonating deeply with consumers, and scaling strategically across both digital and physical channels. The message is loud and clear: in today’s retail environment, legacy can't shield you - agility, cultural relevance, and data-driven execution are the real competitive advantages. Or is this the difference between founder-led and boardroom-led brands?

Stop building the “local version” of things that have NO local dimension. Let’s say an Indonesian team wants to build an AI-powered customer service platform for Indonesia and their entire value proposition is: We’re here. Selling here. No one is selling in Indonesia, yet. That’s it. That’s the moat. But it isn’t a moat! That’s just geography. A temporary gap in someone else’s distribution strategy. Unless you’ve built something truly localised - like deep Bahasa NLP capabilities, data moats or unique customer behaviour patterns that a global player can’t easily replicate - you will likely vanish when an international competitor enters the market. After all, when your customers can choose to go with a competitor that has better technology, deeper pockets and years of global experience… If your only edge is “we’re locals selling to locals,” that edge disappears the moment you go international. Without a credible plan to expand beyond your initial market, your solution often isn't big enough for VCs to invest in. And no, saying ‘we can do it in Bahasa!’ isn’t a defensible answer. It’s just a temporary domestic play. Instead, before pitching ‘the local version of X’, ask yourself: 1. What can I build HERE that I couldn't build in Silicon Valley? 2. What makes my market truly different in ways that create a competitive moat? 3. If a global player enters tomorrow with 10x my resources, what stops them from crushing me? Answering these questions honestly is the difference between building a temporary local business and a resilient global company. Don't just build for today's market gap, build to scale.

The Unsexy Truth About Q4 Success: Most marketers think Q4 winners spend the most. The data tells a different story. Skai's Q3 2025 Quarterly Trends Report just dropped, analyzing 1 trillion impressions and $8.9B in spend through the Skai platform across retail media, paid search, and social. What we found challenges how you should think about your "peak season strategy." Here's my take: Prime Big Deal Days broke the rules: CTR surged 74% YoY while CPCs fell to a 3-year low. The secret? Teams that used Q3 to build infrastructure instead of just chasing performance. Here's what actually matters heading into Q4: → Retail media grew 21%, but the money's flowing to full-funnel strategies, not just lower-funnel clicks → Amazon DSP adoption hit 48% of advertisers; brands are finally connecting the dots across the journey → Search CPCs hit a 6-year high, yet spend grew 9% because smart teams pay for performance, not traffic → TikTok now commands 13% of social spend across 46% of accounts; it's infrastructure, no longer an experiment → AI usage shifted dramatically: strategy queries were up 54% QoQ while creative prompts dropped But here's the insight no one else is talking about: consumer behavior is telling us they're prioritizing value over aspiration. Beauty surged 45%, Health was up 35%, while discretionary categories like Apparel dropped 10%. Average order value fell 11% during PBDD, with most orders under $20. Translation? Q4 isn't about who spends the most. It's about who prepared the best. The teams winning right now locked in feed quality, validated pacing models, and built automation guardrails when nobody was watching. The ones who treated Q3 as "just another quarter" are about to spend November troubleshooting. This report was built to give you time to act. Category breakdowns. Format shifts. AI adoption patterns. Platform consolidation trends. Everything you need to know before it's too late. Read my take or download Skai’s full Q3 2025 Digital Trends Report: https://lnkd.in/gc3XuddP

Most APAC expansion strategies don’t fail because of the market. They fail because of the assumptions going into the market. One framework that has stayed with me over the years comes from The Culture Map, the idea that business behaviours don’t just vary by degree across countries, they vary by dimension. And nowhere is that more evident than in APAC. Having spent 20+ years scaling businesses across India, Southeast Asia, China, and ANZ, I’ve seen global companies consistently underestimate this. APAC is often treated as a single growth lever. In reality, it’s one of the most fragmented operating environments in the world. A few reasons why expansion strategies break: • “One APAC strategy” doesn’t exist What works in Australia will fail in Indonesia. What works in India won’t translate to Japan. • Underestimating go-to-market complexity Distribution, partnerships, and decision-making styles vary far more than most expect. • Over-centralisation Too many decisions made from HQ slow down execution in markets that require speed and localisation. • Misaligned product-market fit Products built for mature markets don’t always translate to high-growth or price-sensitive economies. • Hiring too late (or wrong) Strong local leadership early on is often the single biggest determinant of success. The companies that succeed in APAC do one thing differently: They build market-specific strategies on top of a strong regional operating backbone. It’s not about choosing between global vs local. It’s about knowing what must be standardised and what must be reinvented. As more companies look to APAC as the next growth engine, this distinction will matter even more.