Africa Center for Strategic Studies

La culture du professionnalisme militaire des Forces de défense du Botswana s'est construite de manière systématique autour des valeurs culturelles que sont la démocratie, le service public et la redevabilité. https://lnkd.in/etAsZytP

Millions of people are facing crisis-levels of food insecurity, and the main reason isn't weather or the economy, but conflict. Famine has been expanding in Sudan, South Sudan, and Mali, and it is almost entirely a man-made disaster. Learn more: https://lnkd.in/g5k4SUYD

Across Africa, Community-based conflict mediation and negotiation training has been shown to reduce violence and distrust. Applying these methods more broadly could reshape the security landscape. Learn more about these methods in our latest Africa Security Brief: https://lnkd.in/efhQFHvn

The war in Sudan is placing mounting pressure on an already fragile Chad. Contrary to its frequent portrayal as a pillar of regional stability, Chad is being shown to be increasingly vulnerable to the destabilizing dynamics coming from its neighbor. https://lnkd.in/e6rGJ3vt

Facts to Know: Chinese SOEs and Market Capture in Africa 🏢 Nearly 1 million state-linked firms China has ~363,000 fully state-owned firms, 629,000 with ≥30% state ownership, and ~867,000 with some state stake—forming the world’s largest state-owned enterprise (SOE) system. 🏗️ ~$200 billion in annual state support China provides roughly $200 billion per year in subsidies and policy support to help SOEs expand globally—through financing, tax incentives, insurance, and diplomacy. 🏭 ~10,000 Chinese firms in Africa, ~12% of industrial output Chinese firms in Africa number around 10,000 and account for about 12% of the continent’s industrial production, spanning sectors from energy to manufacturing. ⛏️ 66 of 166 global Chinese mining projects are in Africa In critical minerals, Chinese firms control the midstream and downstream—reinforcing supply chain dependence and leaving host countries reliant on exporting raw commodities. ⚠️ $3.4B reported vs. $6.6B actual debt (Zambia) Zambia’s China-linked debt was initially reported at $3.4 billion but later found to be $6.6 billion, underscoring transparency risks in Chinese financing. Read the new Spotlight here: https://lnkd.in/e2N6_wJx

From our Africa Media Review: The UN is warning that fighting in eastern DRC is escalating—with offensive drones now being used in urban areas, increasing risks to civilians. https://lnkd.in/eama243M This reflects a broader shift across Africa: ➡️ Armed drones are becoming more accessible to both states and non-state actors ➡️ They are reshaping battlefield dynamics by enabling low-cost, high-impact strikes ➡️ Their use in populated areas raises new risks for civilians, infrastructure, and escalation Read more: https://lnkd.in/eQ3bix53

Since Ibrahim Traoré's September 2022 coup, an army of junta-sponsored influencers have worked hard to present a positive picture of security in Burkina Faso: https://lnkd.in/eDugA3uF Unfortunately, the data paints a picture of starkly deteriorating security in Burkina Faso—and the reality on the ground is likely even worse than the numbers suggest, since the junta has actively tried to suppress independent reporting. https://lnkd.in/erkuUyev Similar trends are seen in its junta-led neighbors: the loss of accountable governance and the involvement of the military in the difficult act of governing has been, for each country, a pivot point leading to devastating and widespread insecurity. See our research on the damage to security wrought by Africa's coups: https://lnkd.in/erN_5SqK

Conflict and instability are a major driver of African migration. For example, with the deterioration of security in Mali, “many Malians now view irregular migration as a necessity rather than an opportunity.” See more on the causes and patterns of migration in Africa: https://lnkd.in/eWCn9x_6

Global demand is surging for critical minerals—nickel, graphite, manganese, cobalt, copper, lithium, and rare earth minerals. These resources are used in defense and aerospace systems, electronic vehicles (EV), semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and medical devices. China now controls over half of global critical minerals production and an estimated 87% of processing and refining. China also produces nearly 70% of rare earth minerals, manufactures 93% of high-strength rare earth permanent magnets, and is responsible for 95% of the necessary heavy processing of critical minerals. https://lnkd.in/gSAY4u9r

Sudan’s rival military structures are a product of the 30-year autocratic regime of Omar al-Bashir. Involving civilian voices in negotiations are necessary to move past the zero-sum bipolar dynamic that defines the SAF-RSF rivalry. https://lnkd.in/eKfdGM2x