Nordic Africa Institute

⏰ A reminder that applications close on 6 April. This is a fully funded programme for early-career researchers in Africa, a valuable opportunity not to be missed.

The war in Iran is disrupting supply chains and driving up fuel prices with wide-ranging impacts across Africa.   🔍 NAI Senior Researcher Assem Abu Hatab has researched the impacts of previous economic shocks, including the war in Ukraine and COVID 19 and featured in a DW Arabic report on how this war can affect food security.   🔗 Watch in Arabic: https://shorturl.at/VuGo2   🔗 Read more in English: https://shorturl.at/iIuau   #NorthAfrica #Geopolitics #Economics #Energy #Trade #FoodSecurity

The ongoing war in the Middle East could reshape the balance of power in one of the world’s most critical maritime corridors — with significant implications for trade-dependent Djibouti and the Horn of Africa. 🧭 In this piece, NAI Senior Researcher Redie Bereketeab explores how the US-Israeli war with Iran may reconfigure geopolitics in the Red Sea region. Located at the gateway of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, Djibouti has built its economic and political model around its role as a global trade hub, with around 12% of global goods passing nearby. But shifting alliances, competing port developments and rising tensions could challenge this long-standing advantage. With roughly 90% of Ethiopia’s trade flowing through Djibouti — and multiple global powers maintaining a military presence — changes in the Red Sea’s geopolitical landscape could have far-reaching consequences for both Djibouti and the wider region. 🔗 Read more: https://shorturl.at/ySEBd #HornOfAfrica #RedSea #Geopolitics #Djibouti #MiddleEast #GlobalTrade #ScienceToPolicy #NAI

Containing the spillover: how can North Africa navigate the economic shock of the Iran war?   As global crises become more frequent and interconnected, their effects are spreading faster and further than ever before. The current war involving Iran, Israel and the US – and directly impacting Gulf states – is already driving energy price volatility and disrupting trade routes – sending ripple effects well beyond the region.   North African economies are particularly exposed. From rising oil and food prices to declining remittances, tourism, and investment flows, external shocks can quickly translate into inflation, fiscal pressure, and household hardship.   In a new analysis, NAI Senior Researcher Assem Abu Hatab examines the key transmission channels – from energy markets to supply chains – and outlines a four-pronged strategy for policy makers to strengthen resilience. 📖 https://lnkd.in/d_x4fXZS #NorthAfrica #Geopolitics #Economics #Energy #Trade

What does the Iran war mean for the Horn of Africa? In a new interview, NAI Associate Federico Donelli, of Università degli Studi di Trieste, explains why the most important effects may not come directly from Iran itself, but from how the war is reshaping the broader international environment in which regional actors operate. As Gulf states shift their attention and resources towards the conflict, this creates more room for others to act. Countries such as Egypt – and potentially Turkey – may become more influential, particularly in ongoing crises like Sudan. More broadly, Donelli warns of a worrying trend: the growing normalisation of the use of force and the erosion of international norms. In such a context, local actors may feel less constrained and more willing to pursue military options. This has implications across the Horn of Africa. Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea could escalate again. In Somalia, delayed elections and disputes between the federal government and member states risk deepening instability, with potential spillovers into Somaliland’s contested status. In South Sudan, an already fragile power-sharing arrangement is under increasing strain, raising concerns about renewed internal conflict. And in Sudan, the ongoing war could intensify further. 🎥 Watch the full interview to understand what this could mean for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. (link in comment) #HornOfAfrica #RedSea #Sudan #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations

⚖️ Who benefits from China's growing role in African agriculture? Our senior researcher Assem Abu Hatab and co-author Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah tackle that question in Expertgruppen för biståndsanalys / EBA's new anthology — now available. Their chapter examines China's growing involvement in African agriculture and argues for a more disciplined African approach — built on clearer priorities, firmer rules, and stronger African agency, anchored in continental frameworks like Agenda 2063 and AfCFTA. Africa's vast agricultural potential is central to China's long-term food security strategy. Ultimately, realizing the opportunities of this partnership, while mitigating its risks, demands a decisive shift in mindset and strategy from African governments, complemented by a smart and supportive recalibration of engagement by traditional partners such as Sweden. 💬 "The question is not whether Africa should engage with China — but how to do so on its own terms." 🔗 https://lnkd.in/ddKzEkWD

The Expert Group For Aid Studies / EBA's anthology on China As A Global Development Actor: Transforming the International Aid Landscape is out! In the last decade, China has emerged as a major development partner for many countries, increasingly visible as traditional Western donors reduce or recalibrate their engagement in various regions and sectors. This shift raises important questions for Swedish and European development policy: How might China fill gaps left by traditional providers? How can development effectiveness be maintained and recipientcountry priorities respected in a multipolar aid environment? Where can Swedish aid have the greatest impact? Understanding China’s global ambitions and its evolving role as a multilateral actor is essential for grasping how it shapes international development. This anthology situates China within this evolving terrain. It analyzes China’s approaches across health, climate and environmental governance, gender equality, trade, infrastructure, finance, agriculture, and media, with concrete examples and geographical case studies (Africa, Southeast Asia, Ukraine, and Iran). Authors: Assem Abu Hatab, Oscar Almén, Franklin Amuakwa-Mensah, David Bandurski (班志远), Lisa Eklund, Karl Hallding, Sebastian Haug, Lewis Husain, Helena Legarda Herranz, Asa Malmstrom Rognes, Malin Oud, Dr. Marina Rudyak, Michael Schiffer, Andrew Small, Abigaël VASSELIER, Jingdong Yuan, Jiayi Zhou Reference group: Björn Cappelin, Sarah Cook, Ching Kwan Lee, Carl L., Jillian Popkins, Rolf Schwarz, Love Theodossiadis, Christopher Weidacher Hsiung, John H.S. Åberg, and Lars Niklasson (chair). We also wish to acknowledge Dmytro Yefremov for valuable comments on the chapter about Ukraine, and Karolina Zurek for instructive input on synergies between trade and aid. Sida Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs FOI SIPRI The Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI) Nordic Africa Institute Lund University Raoul Wallenberg Institute Stockholm School of Economics Luleå University of Technology Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) European Council on Foreign Relations

A new article in The Conversation highlights the growing tensions surrounding the extraction of mineral sands in Senegal – and how they might be addressed. The piece draws on a recent policy note by Papa Sow, Senior Researcher at the Nordic Africa Institute, which examines the political economy of mineral sands extraction and outlines pathways for reducing conflict and improving governance. 🔎 Read the policy brief: https://lnkd.in/djzs7KGj 👉 You can also read the related article in The Conversation (in French): https://lnkd.in/dbzdNiYf

Many thanks to the Swedish Development Research Network for publishing our analysis on the Gen Z Movement in Africa. My attention was called to it by a Finnish colleague on Facebook. One of the reasons I value working closely with Swedish leaders—both in research and governance—is their strong commitment to the ideals of equality, freedom and democracy 🇸🇪. Whether in academic spaces or public policy, there is a consistent willingness to support democratic values wherever people are striving to strengthen them. As I listen to Gen Zs in Nigeria talk about their challenges, I realize that Africa today stands at an important crossroads. Across the continent, Gen Zs are expressing deep frustration with governance, inequality, and the slow pace of reform. At the same time, we are witnessing worrying signs of democratic backsliding in several places. From the pressures faced by opposition figures like Bobi Wine in Uganda who has had to flee Uganda to protect his life from the regime, to the rising political tensions among Gen Z activists in Kenya as the country approaches another major election cycle in 2027, the stakes for democracy across the continent remain high. This is precisely why Africa’s Gen Z generation matters so much. Across countries, young people are demanding greater transparency, accountability and respect for the rule of law. Their activism is reshaping how political participation is expressed in the digital age. Now more than ever, Africans must engage seriously with the ideas, frustrations and aspirations of this generation as the continent looks toward the long-term vision of African Union Agenda 2063 — “The Africa We Want.” Grateful as well to the Nordic Africa Institute for helping make this conversation possible. ▶️ Watch the full discussion and join the conversation: https://lnkd.in/dim4_npY #GenZ #Africa #Democracy #YouthPolitics #Agenda2063 #Research #NordicAfricaInstitute