ACLED

Targeting of fishers by Mozambican forces intensified in 2024, as changes in FADM’s naval operations led to a sharp rise in civilian fatalities at sea. Since January 2024, FADM has targeted fishers at least 10 times along the #CaboDelgado coast, from Muissune island near Mocímboa da Praia to Matemo island in the south. These incidents have resulted in at least 85 reported deaths, compared to 13 fatalities across five events between 2019 and 2023. The most deadly incident occurred in January 2024, when 30 fishermen were killed near #Muissune island. Explore in full: https://lnkd.in/egDE4n8U

After weeks of relative silence, Houthi forces launched two missile attacks targeting Israel on 29 March — marking their entry into the Iran conflict. No casualties have been reported, and no further strikes were recorded the following day. “What we are seeing now mirrors October 2023: these initial missile launches are essentially warning shots — not intended to cause significant damage, but to signal entry into the conflict,” says #ACLED Senior Analyst Luca Nevola. Framed as support for #Palestine rather than #Iran, the intervention comes at a critical moment — allowing the Houthis to signal alignment while maximizing leverage in ongoing negotiations. What comes next? Explore the latest Iran war updates: https://lnkd.in/eubgviXa

Over one month into the US and Israel’s war with #Iran, ACLED records that at least 1,238 Iranian retaliatory strikes have been launched across the region since 28 February — including 589 confirmed impacts and 649 intercepted. Confirmed impacts include 240 in Israel, 80 in the #UAE, 76 in #Iraq, and 61 in #Kuwait. Since 28 February, the US and Israel have launched at least 2,387 strikes on Iran, including 120 recorded between 30 March and 10:00 CET this morning. Swipe through the timeline of events and follow the live updates: https://lnkd.in/eubgviXa

Armed group alliances are increasingly shaping violence in eastern #DRC. When the March 23 Movement (M23) launched an offensive across South Kivu’s highlands in November 2025, fighting entered a new phase. The group continued south toward Fizi town, and by February 2026, violence had escalated to its highest levels since the conflict reemerged in late 2021. While international mediation has focused on high-level negotiations and regional political tensions, violence in #SouthKivu has been increasingly shaped by a complex web of non-state armed group alliances. 👇 Swipe to explore the latest developments.

Yemen's Houthi movement has officially entered the Iran war this weekend, launching missile attacks against Israel and outlining new red lines that could pull more actors into the Middle East Conflict. In the latest Conflicts of Interest episode, #ACLED CEO Clionadh Raleigh and #Yemen expert Dr Luca Nevola examine why the #Houthis intervened after weeks of restraint, why they targeted Israel, and what this signals about the wider “Axis of Resistance” — as dynamics evolve from Hezbollah’s role to Gulf state calculations and the contest over the Strait of Hormuz. 🎙️ Listen to the full emergency episode: https://lnkd.in/eaTV-nyr

The Strait of Hormuz oil shock is now heading west, as disruptions reach the one-month mark. Prices have surged, growth forecasts are being cut worldwide, and shortages are emerging across Asia, from #Thailand to #Pakistan. Described by Bloomberg as the biggest oil supply shock in history, the article warns that if the strait stays closed, the world will have to significantly reduce its oil and gas consumption. The analysis draws on #ACLED data to map how Saudi Arabia and the UAE are rerouting oil through pipelines after attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure, as flows through the #StraitofHormuz are disrupted. 🔗 Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/ejn-yhsE

Last chance to register for tomorrow’s emergency webinar on #Lebanon, examining how patterns of violence are evolving, how Hezbollah and other actors are positioning themselves, and what risks lie ahead for both Lebanon and the wider region. As Lebanon re-emerges as a central point in a widening confrontation between Iran, the United States, and Israel, #ACLED experts will unpack escalating dynamics and potential future scenarios. Moderated by Nasser Khdour, the discussion will feature Bassel Doueik 🇱🇧 and Ahmad El Gharbieh. Register today: https://lnkd.in/e87FSVy9

Regional tensions tied to the Iran war could reshape the balance of power in #Sudan. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) remain highly dependent on support from the United Arab Emirates, leaving them exposed to shifts in #Gulf backing. Meanwhile, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) draw on a broader network of regional support and are gaining strategic importance in eastern Sudan as attention to Red Sea security grows. Wider dynamics could further complicate the conflict. Rising tensions between #Ethiopia and Eritrea risk turning Sudan into a proxy battleground, with both countries backing local militias aligned with either side. Read ACLED’s Senior Research Assistant Nohad Eltayeb full comment: https://lnkd.in/eGMHUtzN

While all eyes are on the Iran conflict, settler violence is surging in the West Bank. On 21 and 22 March, settler rampages spread across at least 29 locations after a teenage settler died near a farming outpost in the northern #WestBank. The violence led to scores of injuries, alongside homes and cars burned and property vandalized. #Palestinian communities near settlements and outposts are becoming increasingly isolated by movement restrictions and blocked access between cities and villages — effectively creating a lockdown that settlers appear to be exploiting. As Israel remains engaged across multiple fronts, this could further fuel settler violence and enable expansion into new areas. Get the full details: https://lnkd.in/eePK6mbU