US Hegemony Challenged by China-Russia-Iran Alliance

For years I have preached the uselessness and destructiveness of leverage - understood as the ability to coerce/constrain another into making specific decisions - in negotiation. The moment you use leverage, you are not negotiating. Putin tried leverage in Ukraine. Trump tried leverage with Putin. Netanyahu and Trump, as a tag team, tried it with Tehran. Perhaps the most striking example in all of human history was the might of the Roman Empire brought to bear against a motley group of disciples of a Jewish Rabbi. The mightiest empire in human history killed millions of them in the most violent, perverted, and sadistic manner it could come up with - including crucifixion which it learnt from the Persians - over a period of ~ 250 years and still failed to wipe them out. When your counterpart is ready to die, you either negotiate with exquisite effectiveness and steel resolve, or you will play defense over the long run. The ONLY power you need in a negotiation is the power to make and to influence effective decisions at the service of a valid Mission & Purpose, through the instrumentality of clarity of vision, resolving of pain, and courageous solving of problems which can derail the negotiation or lead to stalemate, impasse, or deadlocks.

Part (1/4) Information: The #Iran War Is Becoming Leverage Against #China and a Future Battle Over the American Presidency (Trump’s New Mission) The breach of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. forces, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the Iranian military in the Strait of Hormuz that took place in recent hours — despite the media statements made by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth regarding the “genuine intentions” to reach a “one-page” peace agreement, according to the American description — indicates, according to intersecting indicators within security and military decision-making circles, that the Defense Secretary effectively maneuvered around the ceasefire track and pushed toward an undeclared redefinition of the rules of engagement by convincing President Trump of the necessity of carrying out either a decisive strike or several small, successive strikes against Iranian vessels or oil tankers linked to Tehran in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would place significant strain on the Chinese economy, the primary beneficiary of Iranian oil, followed by the Russian shadow fleet, which continues to represent a difficult intelligence dilemma for Western agencies. According to situational assessments circulating within circles close to the National Security Council, the real objective was not to open a full-scale confrontation as much as it was to reengineer the balance of deterrence before entering the major negotiation phase with China — a phase President Trump reportedly views as the most important political and economic battle of his second term. Internal assessments suggest that the limited strikes against Iran were intended to project an image of offensive strength for the American president, granting him broader negotiating leverage ahead of any anticipated meeting with the Chinese leadership, especially after the postponement of the previous visit due to war conditions and regional escalation. Sources connected to the White House further confirm that the U.S. administration has, in recent months, reached a strategic conviction that the keys to ending the Middle East deadlock — and even preventing the American economy from sliding into a deeper crisis — have become directly tied to the Chinese position. This assessment is based on the fact that China remains the largest investor in U.S. government debt instruments, in addition to being the actor most capable of influencing global trade, energy networks, and supply chains that have been severely disrupted by the tariff policies adopted by Trump since the beginning of his second term on January 20, 2025. These policies have been heavily championed by Trump economic adviser Peter Navarro, whom members of the Republican Party itself increasingly blame for damaging the party’s public reputation, fueling inflation, and contributing to declining monthly employment rates.

Tehran demands that US establish peace in Lebanon — Iranian ambassador to Belarus Alireza Sanei says that Iran's proposals also include the unfreezing of assets "that have been frozen for many years in banks of various countries" MINSK, May 16/ One of Iran’s demands conveyed to the United States is the establishment of peace and security across the region, including in Lebanon, Iran’s Ambassador to Belarus Alireza Sanei told TASS in an interview. In early May, Tehran sent Washington a 14-point proposal via Islamabad, outlining a roadmap for a potential agreement. The document was a response to a previous US initiative containing nine points. "Regarding our proposals, first of all, the war must come to a complete end. We demanded the establishment of peace and security across the entire region, including Lebanon. We also asked them to unfreeze our assets that have been frozen for many years in banks of various countries," the diplomat said. "And we would also like the Americans to put an end to this maritime piracy and their naval blockade. [US President] Donald Trump openly states and admits that the United States acts like pirates, seizing tankers, taking oil and profiting from it," Sanei added. "Just imagine if Iran said something like that. An emergency UN Security Council meeting would be convened the same evening," the ambassador emphasized. "Trump writes that he will destroy Iranian civilization tomorrow and threatens the use of nuclear weapons. But no one in the world protests. It is unclear where the UN is, where the Security Council is, where international human rights institutions are," the envoy added. In addition, Tehran insists that transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz must not return to their pre-war state and argues that vessels should comply with Iranian security requirements and pay necessary fees. #business #finance #financialservices

Iran’s position in talks with the U.S. to end the war hasn’t changed much from earlier iterations that failed to yield progress toward a deal, regional mediators and U.S. officials familiar with the terms said, raising questions about whether an offramp to the conflict can be found.

TRUMP’s FOLLY My initial take on our attack on Iran was about regime change, The brutal reign of the Ayatollahs and Iranian Guard seemed tenuous. People were rioting in the streets and being slaughtered by the murderous regime. We seemingly came to the aid of the people with a massive attack on the regime’s offensive capabilities and the leaders themselves. But despite the severe damage, the evil power structure remains intact. History demonstrates that crushing economic blockades and destroying primary economic assets rarely result in organic change. For example, despite our valiant efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, neither one worked out as we hoped. Even if mass anti-regime protests erupt due to hyperinflation and starvation, a regime willing to use unrestricted lethal violence against its own citizens—as the IRGC has routinely demonstrated—can easily suppress an unarmed population regardless of the economic situation. To effect regime change now , we would need a ground invasion force of at least 750,000 soldiers. Iran’s landmass is larger than France, Germany, and Spain combined, with a highly mountainous topography. Controlling major urban centers and the capital, Tehran, would require an invasion force exceeding 600,000 to 1,000,000 personnel. The U.S. does not now have that many troops. Even a more limited operation of controlling the Strait of Hormuz would require, perhaps, 100,000 soldiers. This force could capture and hold a localized coastal buffer zone around the Strait of Hormuz. But, It cannot march inland without being cut off and overwhelmed by regular military and insurgent forces. Stationing 100,000 troops along the coast places them directly within the striking range of Iran's deep-interior drone and ballistic missile arsenals, leading to high casualties without a clear path to victory. It seems the best we can make of this situation is to take solace in the fact that we have set the Iranian’s nuclear ambitions back for years. We have also crippled their ability to act as an offensive force outside of their boundaries. So, we can declare victory and move on to other issues. But, now , Iran is in undisputed control of the Strait. We can blockade it and squeeze the Iranian government but the IRGC doesn’t care. Unless we send the tanks down Main Street in Tehran, they aren’t going anywhere.

US nears launching new massive strikes against Iran A new phase of military escalation, including large-scale strikes on Iranian territory, appears most likely if no progress is made in the negotiations between Washington and Tehran, experts say. Expectations of renewed hostilities intensified on the very first day of Project Freedom, which US President Donald Trump announced on the night of May 4. The operation is aimed at ensuring the safe passage of ships blocked in the Persian Gulf. The likelihood of renewed US-Israeli strikes against Iran remains very high, although this is not particularly beneficial for Trump, Pavel Koshkin, a senior researcher at the US and Canadian Studies Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vedomosti. According to the expert, the US leader’s latest threats against Tehran are part of his plan to create the illusion of control over the situation. "Trump is in a very vulnerable position. He wants to act from a position of strength, but if war with Iran were to resume, the president’s domestic political standing would weaken further," he said. Another argument in favor of Trump’s desire to delay a sharp resumption of attacks is the rate at which US weapons stockpiles are being depleted. According to data from US analysts, over the course of several weeks, the Americans have used up between 30% and 80% of their stockpiles of various types of strike and anti-missile weapons. However, even Tehran is unsure how to resolve the current situation, Ivan Bocharov, program manager at the Russian International Affairs Council, emphasized. At the same time, he believes that Tehran understands its demands for the lifting of sanctions, official permission to develop its nuclear program, and security guarantees are unlikely to be met. "Iran is acting primarily reactively, adapting to changes in the situation. Increased pressure from the US, including around the Strait of Hormuz, is perceived as an attempt at coercion. Iran views its own countermeasures, including demonstratively tough signals, as a forced reaction. Tehran is ready to maintain a state of chronic tension, avoiding both a full-scale war and a lasting peace," Bocharov added. If hostilities cease without a political settlement, Iran will most likely continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a tool of pressure. Changing this position will require significant external pressure or substantial concessions from the US, he concluded. #business #finance #financialservices

Henrietta Treyz Posted: The President has called off military strikes in Iran for the time being, but the market isn’t overly confident that this will hold, and it shouldn’t be. Its plain that Iran’s neighboring Gulf nations will bear the cost of retaliation, which will only drive gas prices higher and for the moment that’s being prioritized, along with their safety. The President could clear a backlog of ships by suspending sanctions and allowing Western banking companies and nations to coordinate with the IRGC but the diplomatic political costs of effectively normalizing the IRGC on the global stage are a horrible result of the US/ Israel War with Iran. There are no good choices here for President Trump and early voting starts in 119 days. ➡️ Conversations With Jonathan Ferro and Annmarie Hordern to discuss this am on Bloomberg News #IranNuclear #HormuzStrait #OilMarkets #EnergyPolicy #GasPrices #Geopolitics #PoliticalRisk #MacroPolicy #EnergyMaekets #CrudeOil #Election2026 #Midterms2026 #TrumpPolicy #NationalSecurity

UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz, peace efforts at an impasse Humeyra PamukMay 1, 20262:52 AM PDTUpdated 14 mins ago May 1 (Reuters) - A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse. Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the U.S. Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday. Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive U.S. strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity. 'TREACHEROUS AGGRESSION' Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump ⁠said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. Advertisement · Scroll to continue After U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at U.S. bases, infrastructure and U.S.-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon. Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait. "And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors," Gargash wrote. Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the purposes of the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. Financial and energy markets remained on edge because of concerns about the impasse over negotiations and worries that there could be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose ⁠again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 a barrel and poised for a 5.7% gain over the week after hitting $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022.

Iran’s Parliament Advances Strait of Hormuz Control Bill Iran’s Parliament is finalizing a draft bill to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying ~20% of global oil trade. Announced Saturday by Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad, the proposal includes: Permanent ban on Israeli ships Prior Tehran approval required for most vessels Restrictions on “hostile” nations unless they pay war reparations Fees/tolls (with a portion reportedly funding Iran’s military), to be paid in rials No return to pre-war free navigation This follows the U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran that began in late February 2026, a fragile ceasefire around April 7, and ongoing disruptions that have sharply reduced oil flows. Global oil prices have surged (Brent around $116/barrel recently), raising fears of further spikes and shortages. U.S. officials reject Iran’s claims of control, while Gulf states, Europe, and energy markets face mounting pressure amid stalled talks.

Trump called Iran's latest proposal "a piece of garbage." He said he didn't finish reading it. He said the ceasefire has a one percent chance of surviving. Then he flew to Beijing. In Beijing, Xi Jinping told Trump he would like to help bring the war to an end. He pledged China would not provide military equipment to Iran. Both agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, toll-free, and non-militarised. That last part matters more than any statement either side has made in weeks. China buys roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil. That is not a diplomatic position. That is economic leverage that Tehran cannot replace. The Pentagon has a new operational plan ready. Trump has signalled a decision within days. The blockade now stands at 70 vessels redirected or disabled since April 13. A deal or a resumption of bombing: no third option is visible. For GCC importers, both outcomes require the same preparation: a confirmed Jeddah agent relationship, alternative routing in place, and no CIF shipments in motion through contested corridors. SABIT's Trade Intelligence Brief, Issue 006, is attached. Situation, Implications, Strategic Read, and Advisory Note inside. Follow for future briefs.