Iran’s Parliament Advances Strait of Hormuz Control Bill Iran’s Parliament is finalizing a draft bill to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint carrying ~20% of global oil trade. Announced Saturday by Deputy Speaker Ali Nikzad, the proposal includes: Permanent ban on Israeli ships Prior Tehran approval required for most vessels Restrictions on “hostile” nations unless they pay war reparations Fees/tolls (with a portion reportedly funding Iran’s military), to be paid in rials No return to pre-war free navigation This follows the U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran that began in late February 2026, a fragile ceasefire around April 7, and ongoing disruptions that have sharply reduced oil flows. Global oil prices have surged (Brent around $116/barrel recently), raising fears of further spikes and shortages. U.S. officials reject Iran’s claims of control, while Gulf states, Europe, and energy markets face mounting pressure amid stalled talks.
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The US and Iran are reportedly close to reaching a deal, although the situation remains complicated. Former President Trump indicated that the agreement is largely negotiated, yet the US military has conducted fresh strikes on Iranian vessels this morning. Secretary of State Rubio mentioned that discussions are stalled over the wording of a single sentence. This creates a paradox where we are on the brink of peace while still engaging in active strikes. Oil prices initially dropped due to optimism surrounding the potential peace deal but quickly rebounded following the military actions. The markets are uncertain about how to respond. What is crucial for your finances is this: as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, oil prices will remain high. High oil prices translate to increased costs across the board. A genuine agreement could change this dynamic overnight. The timeline for such a deal is unclear, but global attention is focused on the developments. Link in the bio.
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Trump declared the war "terminated" on Friday. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. That is not a contradiction: it is a legal manoeuvre. The 60-day War Powers deadline hit May 1. Trump wrote to Congress, declared hostilities over, and simultaneously warned that strikes could resume if Iran does not deal. The same weekend, Iran put its most significant proposal yet on the table: open the Strait now, defer nuclear talks to a later stage. Trump said he was reviewing the "concept." And while all of that was happening, the US Treasury issued a warning that shippers paying Iran's $1 million transit toll may now be in violation of US sanctions. The Strait did not open. But the legal risk did. For GCC importers on CIF terms with cargo moving on flag-exempt carriers through Hormuz, this is the development that changes the calculus. The toll is no longer just an operational cost. It is a potential sanctions exposure traceable to your shipment. SABIT's Trade Intelligence Brief - Issue 004 is attached. Situation, Implications, Strategic Read, and Advisory Note inside. Follow for future briefs.
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The US Just Struck Southern Iran While Peace Talks Were Happening in Qatar. CENTCOM Called It "Self-Defense." Several IRGC Personnel Were Killed. Here is what happened: US Central Command launched strikes on missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to lay mines. This happened while Iran's top negotiators — Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf — were sitting in Doha for peace talks. Trump posted on Truth Social: "Talks proceeding nicely." Then added: "It will only be a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all — Back to the Battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before." Iran's foreign ministry said progress has been made but no agreement is imminent. The ceasefire has been in place since April 8. This is not the first skirmish since then, but it is the most significant. Oil climbed on the news. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. And the market is being asked to believe that peace is coming while bombs are still falling. The pattern: negotiate in public, strike in private, and let the market price in the headline it wants to hear. #Sovrana #Iran #US #CENTCOM #Oil #StraitOfHormuz #Geopolitics #Trump #MiddleEast #Markets
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US Treasury Secretary Bessent Calls Iran's Leaders 'Rats in Sewer Pipe' The United States steps up pressure on Iran over navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Washington has warned shipping companies against paying any tolls allegedly demanded by Iran for safe passage, cautioning that such payments could trigger sanctions. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sharply criticised Iran’s leadership, accusing it of being out of touch with ground realities. He also indicated that the US-led blockade would continue until 'freedom of navigation' is ensured in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes. Meanwhile, the US military claims the ongoing blockade has already curbed billions of dollars in Iranian oil exports. https://lnkd.in/dHXgfmM6
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Trump called Iran's latest proposal "a piece of garbage." He said he didn't finish reading it. He said the ceasefire has a one percent chance of surviving. Then he flew to Beijing. In Beijing, Xi Jinping told Trump he would like to help bring the war to an end. He pledged China would not provide military equipment to Iran. Both agreed the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, toll-free, and non-militarised. That last part matters more than any statement either side has made in weeks. China buys roughly 90 percent of Iran's oil. That is not a diplomatic position. That is economic leverage that Tehran cannot replace. The Pentagon has a new operational plan ready. Trump has signalled a decision within days. The blockade now stands at 70 vessels redirected or disabled since April 13. A deal or a resumption of bombing: no third option is visible. For GCC importers, both outcomes require the same preparation: a confirmed Jeddah agent relationship, alternative routing in place, and no CIF shipments in motion through contested corridors. SABIT's Trade Intelligence Brief, Issue 006, is attached. Situation, Implications, Strategic Read, and Advisory Note inside. Follow for future briefs.
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Tehran demands that US establish peace in Lebanon — Iranian ambassador to Belarus Alireza Sanei says that Iran's proposals also include the unfreezing of assets "that have been frozen for many years in banks of various countries" MINSK, May 16/ One of Iran’s demands conveyed to the United States is the establishment of peace and security across the region, including in Lebanon, Iran’s Ambassador to Belarus Alireza Sanei told TASS in an interview. In early May, Tehran sent Washington a 14-point proposal via Islamabad, outlining a roadmap for a potential agreement. The document was a response to a previous US initiative containing nine points. "Regarding our proposals, first of all, the war must come to a complete end. We demanded the establishment of peace and security across the entire region, including Lebanon. We also asked them to unfreeze our assets that have been frozen for many years in banks of various countries," the diplomat said. "And we would also like the Americans to put an end to this maritime piracy and their naval blockade. [US President] Donald Trump openly states and admits that the United States acts like pirates, seizing tankers, taking oil and profiting from it," Sanei added. "Just imagine if Iran said something like that. An emergency UN Security Council meeting would be convened the same evening," the ambassador emphasized. "Trump writes that he will destroy Iranian civilization tomorrow and threatens the use of nuclear weapons. But no one in the world protests. It is unclear where the UN is, where the Security Council is, where international human rights institutions are," the envoy added. In addition, Tehran insists that transit rules in the Strait of Hormuz must not return to their pre-war state and argues that vessels should comply with Iranian security requirements and pay necessary fees. #business #finance #financialservices
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Bill Alert! US House Bill HR 8670 - Stop Oil Exports to Lower Gas Prices Act Policy: Foreign Trade and International Finance Status: Introduced to House Full Details: https://lnkd.in/ehi_A29V H.R. 8670, introduced in the 119th Congress on May 7, 2026, aims to prohibit the export of crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel during periods of military operations against Iran.
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UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz, peace efforts at an impasse Humeyra PamukMay 1, 20262:52 AM PDTUpdated 14 mins ago May 1 (Reuters) - A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse. Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the U.S. Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday. Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive U.S. strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity. 'TREACHEROUS AGGRESSION' Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. Advertisement · Scroll to continue After U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at U.S. bases, infrastructure and U.S.-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon. Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait. "And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors," Gargash wrote. Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the purposes of the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. Financial and energy markets remained on edge because of concerns about the impasse over negotiations and worries that there could be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 a barrel and poised for a 5.7% gain over the week after hitting $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022.
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The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has now entered its 11th week, with tensions still extremely high. Iran has officially sent a response to a U.S.-backed peace proposal through Pakistani mediators. Tehran reportedly demanded: an end to military operations, lifting of sanctions/blockades, maritime security guarantees, and continued negotiations. U.S. President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response as “totally unacceptable,” indicating the ceasefire remains fragile and further military escalation is possible. The Strait of Hormuz remains the biggest flashpoint. Shipping disruptions and partial blockade conditions continue to affect global oil supply and trade routes. Oil prices have crossed around $100 per barrel in global markets. Reports indicate: intermittent missile/drone exchanges are continuing, tensions remain active in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Gulf waters, and Western naval deployments in the Gulf region are increasing. The war has also caused: severe economic pressure on Iran, global fuel inflation concerns, shipping and aviation disruptions, and internet shutdowns inside Iran during periods of unrest. Key Concern Globally The biggest international concern right now is that any collapse of negotiations could trigger: renewed U.S.-Israel strikes, full closure of Hormuz, wider Middle East conflict, and another major global energy crisis.
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Someone really didn't think this through. The implications on global economics are significant. It also marvelously distracts the US from Ukraine, while in the big picture becomes part of the China-Russia-Iran challenge to US hegemony. Ukraine's play to get closer to the gulf states is a smart move. The speed at which autonomy and AI in warfare are advancing is enormous. 2028 can't come fast enough.
Major General, PhD, Commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, Deputy Commander of the Operational Command East. Commander of the Directorate Moral and Psychological Support - Armed Forces of Ukraine 2021-2024.
The United States is approaching a complete defeat in its war with Iran — one whose consequences can neither be reversed nor ignored, writes Robert Kagan for The Atlantic. Despite 37 days of devastating U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed a significant portion of Iran’s leadership and crippled its armed forces, Tehran has made no concessions whatsoever. In turn, Trump was reportedly forced to halt the attacks after Iran launched a retaliatory strike on the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar on March 18, with repairs expected to take years. The author argues that Iran will not back down from its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz, thereby gaining global leverage over energy supplies and the ability to dictate terms to Gulf states. This, he claims, would strengthen the Iran–China–Russia axis geopolitically. The war, according to the article, has exposed America as a “paper tiger.” It has also depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles and accelerated the arrival of a “post-American world,” potentially emboldening Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan and Vladimir Putin in Europe. “President Trump likes to talk about who has the ‘cards,’ but whether he has any good cards left to play is unclear. The United States and Israel spent 37 days delivering devastating blows to Iran, killing much of the country’s leadership and destroying much of its armed forces, yet failed to overthrow the regime or extract even the smallest concession from it. The Trump administration now hopes that a blockade of Iranian ports will achieve what overwhelming military force could not. Of course, that is possible, but a regime that could not be brought to its knees by five weeks of relentless military attacks is unlikely to yield merely under the pressure of economic sanctions. Nor does it fear the anger of its own people.”
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Strategic mistake by the Iranians, unfortunately. Even if the blockade is legitimate because the strait is largely on their territorial waters in reality. Their decision will push the Gulf countries to review their routing through other routes. Which will make the strait obsolete. They will lose their trump card in the future. Moreover, many countries will invest in underexploited African oil. China, for example, will invest in Africa in oil structures that will belong to them. I repeat, this is a fundamental strategic mistake for them and for their relationship with the Gulf countries. They should just forbid passage to Israeli ships; this signal is more than enough for what follows.