Part (1/4) Information: The #Iran War Is Becoming Leverage Against #China and a Future Battle Over the American Presidency (Trump’s New Mission) The breach of the ceasefire agreement between U.S. forces, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, and the Iranian military in the Strait of Hormuz that took place in recent hours — despite the media statements made by President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth regarding the “genuine intentions” to reach a “one-page” peace agreement, according to the American description — indicates, according to intersecting indicators within security and military decision-making circles, that the Defense Secretary effectively maneuvered around the ceasefire track and pushed toward an undeclared redefinition of the rules of engagement by convincing President Trump of the necessity of carrying out either a decisive strike or several small, successive strikes against Iranian vessels or oil tankers linked to Tehran in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would place significant strain on the Chinese economy, the primary beneficiary of Iranian oil, followed by the Russian shadow fleet, which continues to represent a difficult intelligence dilemma for Western agencies. According to situational assessments circulating within circles close to the National Security Council, the real objective was not to open a full-scale confrontation as much as it was to reengineer the balance of deterrence before entering the major negotiation phase with China — a phase President Trump reportedly views as the most important political and economic battle of his second term. Internal assessments suggest that the limited strikes against Iran were intended to project an image of offensive strength for the American president, granting him broader negotiating leverage ahead of any anticipated meeting with the Chinese leadership, especially after the postponement of the previous visit due to war conditions and regional escalation. Sources connected to the White House further confirm that the U.S. administration has, in recent months, reached a strategic conviction that the keys to ending the Middle East deadlock — and even preventing the American economy from sliding into a deeper crisis — have become directly tied to the Chinese position. This assessment is based on the fact that China remains the largest investor in U.S. government debt instruments, in addition to being the actor most capable of influencing global trade, energy networks, and supply chains that have been severely disrupted by the tariff policies adopted by Trump since the beginning of his second term on January 20, 2025. These policies have been heavily championed by Trump economic adviser Peter Navarro, whom members of the Republican Party itself increasingly blame for damaging the party’s public reputation, fueling inflation, and contributing to declining monthly employment rates.
Iran War Becomes Leverage Against China and Trump's China Negotiation Strategy
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Someone really didn't think this through. The implications on global economics are significant. It also marvelously distracts the US from Ukraine, while in the big picture becomes part of the China-Russia-Iran challenge to US hegemony. Ukraine's play to get closer to the gulf states is a smart move. The speed at which autonomy and AI in warfare are advancing is enormous. 2028 can't come fast enough.
Major General, PhD, Commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, Deputy Commander of the Operational Command East. Commander of the Directorate Moral and Psychological Support - Armed Forces of Ukraine 2021-2024.
The United States is approaching a complete defeat in its war with Iran — one whose consequences can neither be reversed nor ignored, writes Robert Kagan for The Atlantic. Despite 37 days of devastating U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed a significant portion of Iran’s leadership and crippled its armed forces, Tehran has made no concessions whatsoever. In turn, Trump was reportedly forced to halt the attacks after Iran launched a retaliatory strike on the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar on March 18, with repairs expected to take years. The author argues that Iran will not back down from its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz, thereby gaining global leverage over energy supplies and the ability to dictate terms to Gulf states. This, he claims, would strengthen the Iran–China–Russia axis geopolitically. The war, according to the article, has exposed America as a “paper tiger.” It has also depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles and accelerated the arrival of a “post-American world,” potentially emboldening Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan and Vladimir Putin in Europe. “President Trump likes to talk about who has the ‘cards,’ but whether he has any good cards left to play is unclear. The United States and Israel spent 37 days delivering devastating blows to Iran, killing much of the country’s leadership and destroying much of its armed forces, yet failed to overthrow the regime or extract even the smallest concession from it. The Trump administration now hopes that a blockade of Iranian ports will achieve what overwhelming military force could not. Of course, that is possible, but a regime that could not be brought to its knees by five weeks of relentless military attacks is unlikely to yield merely under the pressure of economic sanctions. Nor does it fear the anger of its own people.”
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For years I have preached the uselessness and destructiveness of leverage - understood as the ability to coerce/constrain another into making specific decisions - in negotiation. The moment you use leverage, you are not negotiating. Putin tried leverage in Ukraine. Trump tried leverage with Putin. Netanyahu and Trump, as a tag team, tried it with Tehran. Perhaps the most striking example in all of human history was the might of the Roman Empire brought to bear against a motley group of disciples of a Jewish Rabbi. The mightiest empire in human history killed millions of them in the most violent, perverted, and sadistic manner it could come up with - including crucifixion which it learnt from the Persians - over a period of ~ 250 years and still failed to wipe them out. When your counterpart is ready to die, you either negotiate with exquisite effectiveness and steel resolve, or you will play defense over the long run. The ONLY power you need in a negotiation is the power to make and to influence effective decisions at the service of a valid Mission & Purpose, through the instrumentality of clarity of vision, resolving of pain, and courageous solving of problems which can derail the negotiation or lead to stalemate, impasse, or deadlocks.
Major General, PhD, Commander of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade, Deputy Commander of the Operational Command East. Commander of the Directorate Moral and Psychological Support - Armed Forces of Ukraine 2021-2024.
The United States is approaching a complete defeat in its war with Iran — one whose consequences can neither be reversed nor ignored, writes Robert Kagan for The Atlantic. Despite 37 days of devastating U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed a significant portion of Iran’s leadership and crippled its armed forces, Tehran has made no concessions whatsoever. In turn, Trump was reportedly forced to halt the attacks after Iran launched a retaliatory strike on the Ras Laffan gas facility in Qatar on March 18, with repairs expected to take years. The author argues that Iran will not back down from its demand for control over the Strait of Hormuz, thereby gaining global leverage over energy supplies and the ability to dictate terms to Gulf states. This, he claims, would strengthen the Iran–China–Russia axis geopolitically. The war, according to the article, has exposed America as a “paper tiger.” It has also depleted U.S. weapons stockpiles and accelerated the arrival of a “post-American world,” potentially emboldening Xi Jinping regarding Taiwan and Vladimir Putin in Europe. “President Trump likes to talk about who has the ‘cards,’ but whether he has any good cards left to play is unclear. The United States and Israel spent 37 days delivering devastating blows to Iran, killing much of the country’s leadership and destroying much of its armed forces, yet failed to overthrow the regime or extract even the smallest concession from it. The Trump administration now hopes that a blockade of Iranian ports will achieve what overwhelming military force could not. Of course, that is possible, but a regime that could not be brought to its knees by five weeks of relentless military attacks is unlikely to yield merely under the pressure of economic sanctions. Nor does it fear the anger of its own people.”
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37th day after US-Iran ceasefire was announced— President Trump himself as described it this week to be on "massive life support." That phrase, used publicly by the President of the United States, is the most candid official assessment of the conflict's diplomatic status yet. Iran submitted its formal written counterproposal to the US 14-point peace plan. Trump read it — or partially read it — and called it "a piece of garbage" and "just unacceptable." His core complaint: Iran's response did not include an explicit commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons. Iran, for its part, insists its proposal — which reportedly includes recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — was "reasonable and generous." The talks are now effectively stalled again, with both sides maintaining the ceasefire in name while trading fire in the Strait. The most consequential diplomatic development of the week is President Trump's arrival in Beijing for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting carries outsized importance for the Iran conflict for a specific reason: China is Iran's most significant economic partner, purchasing the majority of Iran's crude oil exports despite US sanctions. Beijing has leverage with Tehran that Washington lacks. An advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader issued a pointed public warning ahead of the meeting: "Mr Trump, never imagine that by taking advantage of Iran's current calm, you will be able to enter Beijing triumphantly." That is not a diplomatic courtesy. It is a signal that Tehran is watching Beijing-Washington dynamics closely and will factor them into its negotiating posture. The economic cost to ordinary Americans is now politically acute. Gas prices have risen from $2.98 per gallon when the war began in February to $4.52 on Monday — costing consumers an estimated $20 billion in additional fuel costs, with diesel adding a further $16.9 billion in indirect costs to farmers, truckers and supply chains. These are not abstract macroeconomic numbers. They are the kind of figures that reshape electoral politics — and Trump knows it. The pressure to produce a deal is not purely diplomatic. It is domestic and deeply personal to millions of American households. Meanwhile some Trump aides are now said to be "more seriously considering" a resumption of major combat operations — a development that, if accurate, means the diplomatic window is narrower than the public ceasefire status implies. For global business and investment leaders: the Xi-Trump meeting in Beijing this week is the most important external variable in the Iran peace process. If China signals willingness to co-sponsor a framework that brings Iran to the table on nuclear issues, a deal becomes materially more possible. If Beijing plays for continued instability, the conflict extends indefinitely and energy markets remain severely disrupted. Watch Beijing. Watch Tehran. The ceasefire is still alive — just barely. #IranWar #GlobalEconomy
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On Iran and the U.S. deadlock -- Iran and Washington are both under pressure, but in very different ways. The dynamics generally favor Iran in the short term and the U.S. in the long term. Iran is facing severe military, economic, and diplomatic pressure. It cannot stop U.S.-Israeli airstrikes; it cannot eject the U.S. Navy from the Gulf; and should it come to it, it cannot stop a U.S. invasion of its islands. Its economy shed up to a million jobs since the start of the war. It cannot export its oil at scale, nor does it have clean back-up routes to China via Russia and Central Asia. And closing Hormuz and attacking the Gulf Arabs has left it the most isolated its been since 1979, creating the prospect of a budding coalition of regime-changers that could include key countries like the UAE. But politically, Tehran can ignore this pressure. Airstrikes suppress the opposition rather than embolden it. The economy moves slowly, as it does everywhere, and economic pain will not create a significant uprising on its own. And its relationships with Russia and China are evolving, perhaps deepening, in a significant structural offset to regional isolation. This gives Iran the months it needs to hold out. The U.S., meanwhile, is not facing an economic crisis, but a political one: Americans feel entitled to cheap gas, the chief social emblem of their superpower status. They turn on a president who cannot achieve this, as they are turning on Trump. If he holds out for months for his comprehensive deal, he will burn his own party, and potentially his domestic legacy, at the midterms. As a president, he has a strong incentive to offer whatever concessions are necessary to restore Hormuz and reassure the Americans that their geopolitical privileges are still intact. But Trump is not the U.S. After the midterms, an Iran that is still adversarial, that may still be blocking Hormuz, must still face all its structural disadvantages against a Washington that will remain better armed, wealthier, and diplomatically positioned. They may yet get Trump to offer them the concessions they want; if they don't, the problems their system can put off will threaten to overwhelm them.
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🗺 International news for 27 May 2026: 1. 🇺🇸 Donald Trump’s “Peace Council” fund is empty, - FT. #USA #Trump 2. 🇺🇸 Trump appointed former Attorney General Pam Bondi to the White House AI council. #USA #AI 3. 🇺🇸 Musk: It is time to build a large base on the Moon. #USA #Moon 4. 🇺🇸🇮🇳 US Trade Representative Greer: The US expects to conclude a trade deal with India soon. #USA #India 5. 🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump told PBS News that Iran will not receive sanctions relief in exchange for giving up highly enriched uranium. #USA #Iran 6. 🇬🇧🇵🇱 The UK and Poland will sign a defence and security agreement. #UK #Poland #Defence 7. 🇺🇦 Zelensky ordered preparations for another 2-3 years of military operations, - The Economist. #Ukraine #Defence 8. 🇺🇦 The IMF mission begins its work in Kyiv on 27 May and is expected to stay until around 2-3 June. #Ukraine #Macro 9. 🇺🇦🇺🇸 Zelensky sent Trump an urgent letter warning about Ukraine’s critical shortage of missile defence systems, – Kyiv Independent. #Ukraine #USA #Defence 10. 🇺🇦🇺🇸 The US once again did not support Ukraine’s anti-Russian statement at the UN. #USA #Ukraine #Defence 11. 🇦🇺 Australia – Consumer Inflation CPI (April): #Australia #CPI - m/m = +0.4% (exp. +1.1% / prev. +1.1%) - y/y = +4.2% (exp. +4.4% / prev. +4.6%) 12. 🇭🇰 Hong Kong overtook Switzerland for the first time as the world’s largest offshore cross-border hub for wealthy clients, attracting $2.9tn in 2025, - FT. #HongKong 13. 🇨🇳 Profits of China’s industrial enterprises rose 24.7% y/y in April. #China #Macro
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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 New piece out for MEIS | Middle East Institute Switzerland, looking at the US-China summit through the lens of the Iran war. The argument, in short: the conflict has structurally weakened Washington's negotiating position in ways that are now difficult to reverse. US munitions depletion, including nearly 50% depletions in major precision strike and air defense categories, has created an even more immediate dependency on Chinese-controlled rare earth supply chains at precisely the moment the US is trying to extract concessions from Beijing. Meanwhile, China has watched America's strategic attention and naval assets flow back into the Middle East, entrenching its own position in the Pacific theatre at low cost. Beijing has little incentive to curtail Iranian oil purchases, which serve economic and strategic functions simultaneously. China has become far less flexible to America's Iran-related demands in the Xi era and that will likely continue. On sanctions: Treasury's "Operation Economic Fury" (I still cant believe they called it that) is an active pressure tool meant to compensate for some of the lost leverage on China, but designating teapot refiners and shadow fleet intermediaries has limited bite given their dollar exposure. Sanctioning Chinese banks remains a deterrent Washington is reluctant to spend. Tehran is watching these talks closely. PS. Middle East Switzerland is publishing a whole series about the Trump-Xi meeting, written from various vantage points - US, China and Russia in addition to Iran. https://lnkd.in/dBxZ2ZaM
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The Hormuz Paradox will be a defining moment in modern warfare and strategic thinking. An ill planned dominating power without knowing the limitations of hard power consumes itself with unprecedented amnesia. Trump's strategy is exceptionally horrible and reveals what went wrong with American coercive power. Hormuz papradox will change the discourse on war & strategy. I write along with Md Asad Uzzaman. Do read! Happy to share!
Trump’s madness has brought a self-inflicted injury; a certain political isolation, even among allies from continental Europe and beyond, including India. His post on Truth Social, against NATO and his strategic allies, expressing his frustration, has unleashed a new order in the making. The Europeans have been clueless about how to deal with his madness and eccentric foreign policy choices; an uncertainty of monstrous proportions. Trump’s war on Iran has compromised its energy security. The war has impacted everyone, and the global economy has shown lasting consequences. Trump’s misadventure has raised crude prices by about 40 per cent as the Iran blockade has affected the supply of roughly 25 per cent of oil through the strategic waterways. Commentary by Dr PremAnand Mishra & Md Asad Uzzaman. Click below for more: https://lnkd.in/g-rVrg74
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Republicans warn Trump against hasty deal with Iran — Politico According to sources cited by the newspaper, the officials fear that the deal terms would be unfavorable for Washington WASHINGTON DC, May 27/ A number of influential Republican party congresspeople warn US President Donald Trump against concluding a peace agreement with Iran in haste, fearing that its terms may be unfavorable for Washington, the Politico newspaper reported. "President Donald Trump’s push for an Iran peace deal faces opposition from a surprising quarter: Republican hawks who fear the White House will strike a bad deal," the article says. "Top Republicans warned that a hasty deal could leave Iran with the tools to still threaten the region and choke off commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz." "Major sticking points would include the future of Iran’s nuclear program, including its stock of highly enriched uranium, and clearing the way for maritime transit of the strait," Politico wrote. "Several top Republicans are pushing the administration to abandon talks and keep the pressure on Iran," the article says. Among them are Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (Mississippi), who earlier urged to resume bombings of Iran. In turn, Senator Thom Tillis (North Carolina) said the US administration has "a lot of things that need to be explained" regarding the potential agreement with Iran. The United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran on February 28. On April 7, Trump announced a "double-sided" two-week ceasefire with Iran. On April 11, the parties held several rounds of talks in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad. According to both Tehran and Washington, they were unable to agree on a long-term solution to the conflict due to multiple disagreements. On April 21, the US president announced plans to extend the ceasefire with Iran. On May 19, Trump said the US was ready to give diplomacy a chance, postponing military operations until the beginning of next week. On May 23, the US leader stated that an agreement had been largely negotiated, but he said the following day that the sides had not yet reached final agreements on several issues. #business #finance #financialservices
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UAE says Iran cannot be trusted over Hormuz, peace efforts at an impasse Humeyra PamukMay 1, 20262:52 AM PDTUpdated 14 mins ago May 1 (Reuters) - A senior United Arab Emirates official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse. Two months into the conflict, the vital sea channel is still largely closed because of an Iranian blockade and the U.S. Navy is blocking exports of Iranian crude oil. The blockade has choked off 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies, pushing up global energy prices and increasing concerns that there will be an economic downturn. A ceasefire has been in place since April 8 but reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was to be briefed on plans for new military strikes to compel Iran to negotiate pushed global oil prices up to a four-year high at one point on Thursday. Iran has activated air defences and plans a wide response if attacked, having assessed that there will be a short, intensive U.S. strike, possibly followed by an Israeli attack, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity. 'TREACHEROUS AGGRESSION' Washington has not said what its next steps are. Trump said on Tuesday he was unhappy with the latest proposal from Iran, and mediator Pakistan has not set a date for new talks on ending a war that has killed thousands, mainly in Iran and Lebanon. Advertisement · Scroll to continue After U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on February 28, Iran fired at U.S. bases, infrastructure and U.S.-linked companies in Gulf states, while the Iran-backed Lebanese group Hezbollah launched missiles at Israel, which responded with strikes on Lebanon. Underlining the concerns of the Gulf states, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said the "collective international will and provisions of international law" were the primary guarantors of freedom of navigation through the strait. "And, of course, no unilateral Iranian arrangements can be trusted or relied upon following its treacherous aggression against all its neighbors," Gargash wrote. Trump faces a formal U.S. deadline on Friday to end the war or make the case to Congress for extending it under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. The date looks set to pass without altering the course of the war after a senior administration official said that, for the purposes of the resolution, hostilities had terminated due to the April ceasefire between Tehran and Washington. Financial and energy markets remained on edge because of concerns about the impasse over negotiations and worries that there could be a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose again on Friday, up slightly at over $111 a barrel and poised for a 5.7% gain over the week after hitting $126 a barrel on Thursday, the highest level since March 2022.
