What does the conflict in Iran portend about outer space?
👉 Disruptions and challenges to "free passage" in space.
Iran has exploited its location next to a transit corridor vital to international commerce and energy markets, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz to international maritime traffic. To achieve this feat, Iran neither established sea control nor air superiority over the strait; instead, it applied a relatively small amount of force—and the threat of using more—to achieve its goals.
A nation applying this playbook to outer space could produce equally consequential results. Similar to transit rights through the strait, all nations have the right to freely use space—a right that is perhaps taken for granted. Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, all countries border space and, with the right technology, can threaten it. Nearly 80 percent of all operational satellites orbit less than 800 km from the Earth’s surface, a distance within reach of many ballistic missiles.
The fact that space is under threat has been known for years. The lesson on display in the Strait of Hormuz is that disruption can be achieved and sustained without having domain superiority, and that, once disrupted, it is hard to return things to the old normal. Russia, China, and others are watching. The United States would stand to lose the most from a disruption to space.
Rather than assuming it is possible to convince Iran, Russia, or any other country that it is not worth disrupting space, a parallel-path solution may be to develop ways to mitigate the impacts of anti-satellite weapons. This might include technologies that protect remote sensing satellites from laser dazzlers and quickly mitigate and remove debris from LEO. Focusing on technologies that could help satellites conduct more maneuvers over their lifetimes, as a way to raise their altitudes to escape debris fields and then return to the proper orbits, is another possible way to mitigate the threat of debris. A solution is possibly satellite refueling technologies, particularly for high-value spacecraft. The Pentagon may also want to rethink the wisdom of putting so many eggs in the LEO basket.
Read the full article here on the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) website: https://lnkd.in/eUbt2nUv.
The next geopolitical battle is no longer only about AI, cloud or semiconductors. It is also about TIME. Precise timing infrastructure is becoming one of the most strategic layers of modern civilization: finance, telecommunications, 5G/6G, energy grids, autonomous mobility, defense systems, smart cities, and resilient critical infrastructure. Canada is now moving with NRC and Xona toward sovereign low-Earth-orbit timing and resilient PNT architectures. The world is accelerating: • The United States through Starlink, Xona and Kuiper • China through massive sovereign orbital ambitions • Canada through resilient timing initiatives • Private space ecosystems are becoming strategic infrastructure Meanwhile, Europe risks depending on infrastructures designed and controlled elsewhere. The future will belong to nations capable of orchestrating: GNSS + LEO + terrestrial layers + AI-driven infrastructure. This is no longer only about navigation. It is about digital sovereignty.