Greg Alvo

Public software is down 40% in 12 months. The selloff has been indiscriminate. Companies hitting their revenue targets are getting hammered alongside the ones that deserve it. The market isn't distinguishing between well-positioned and poorly-positioned software companies.   That will change. When it does, the companies left standing will be the ones with moats that matter in a world where agents do more of the work.   The Emergence partnership spent yesterday debating a question I think every founder and investor should be asking (and, judging by my LinkedIn feed, it seems they are...):   Which software moats actually survive in an AI era?   Here's the spectrum we landed on (from least to most defensible):   1. Workflow   Pre-Claude, getting humans to do their jobs inside your software was a powerful moat. But if agents are doing the work, who cares about the human workflow? Cursor vs Claude Code is the canary in the coal mine: one owns the workflow, the other just executes—and developers are increasingly choosing execution over process.   2. Integrations   MCPs are rapidly commoditizing the glue between systems. Being the connector used to be a moat. Soon, it'll be a utility.   3. Data repository   Static repositories are table stakes. Owning customer data matters less than understanding what to do with it.   4. System of action   Now we're getting somewhere. If your software touches money, customers, or real-world outcomes (think Gusto or Shopify), ripping it out is genuinely painful.   5. Full context   The most important new moat in AI. Understanding how a full task gets done across systems, knowing what a user needs across many different sources. This is what agents need to be useful, and the companies that own it become indispensable infrastructure. But it's young and unproven. If context becomes portable (the way integrations are being commoditized now), this moat could erode too.   6. Brand   The moat that survives every platform shift. Trust compounds over time and can't be replicated by a new entrant with better tech. When everything else gets commoditized, the vendor you trust still wins.   7. Network effects   The most underappreciated moat in AI, and potentially the most enduring. But not all network effects are equal. Workflow-based ones (more humans in the tool) are vulnerable. Data and trust-based ones (every user makes the product smarter) actually accelerate with agents. LinkedIn, Doximity, and Slack all still have this. Relatively few AI native companies have prioritized it...yet.   --   The bottom line: Seat-based pricing and workflow stickiness were the backbone of the last era. Both are eroding. The next era rewards companies tied to outcomes, context, and trust.   If you're a founder, stress-test your moats against this spectrum. If your primary defense is "our users do their jobs in our software," you have work to do.   Because the world is moving towards selling outcomes, not software.

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I recently sat down with Josh R., Co-Founder & CEO of Gusto, for a fireside chat at Afore Capital's Pre-Seed Summit.   Gusto is a testament to solid fundamentals. We partnered at the Series B over a decade ago (Jason Green). Since then, they've steadily built a business that's amassed more ARR than Cursor, Lovable, and Harvey combined, is executing profitably, making accretive acquisitions and integrating the latest in GenAI to improve their stack.   Here are 5 tips Josh shared for early-stage founders with similar goals:   1. Start with co-founder selection, not the problem   Unlike most founders who begin by identifying a problem to solve, Josh prioritized finding co-founders based on relationship quality and complement. The investment in those relationships has paid dividends—their families are so close that the founders' moms have a group text thread.   2. Problem authenticity accelerates product-market fit   Josh and his co-founders had experienced payroll pain firsthand at previous startups. I've observed this same pattern repeatedly with portfolio founders who reach PMF fastest. Austin Hughes at Unify knew the GTM space from his work at Ramp. Eric S. Yuan was VP of Engineering at Webex before founding Zoom. Authentic problem experience creates both passion and expertise that compound over time.   3. Sequence your biggest risks first   When Josh started Gusto, he took a methodical approach to de-risking. Before burning cash on frontend or go-to-market, they built the backend systems—tax calculations, payments, and all the complex infrastructure. Then they manually tested these systems at friends' companies to validate that they worked before building front end. This sequential risk management helped proved technical feasibility before they committed resources elsewhere.   4. Don't trust surface-level competitive analysis   Payroll looked terrifying from the outside. ADP, Paychecks, and Intuit all dominated SMB, while Zenefits was an aggressive upstart. But when Josh dug deeper, a different picture emerged: the incumbents combined only had 50% market share, and 40% of SMBs were still doing payroll manually. Markets often have more white space than initial analysis suggests.   5. Find why you can win the untapped market   Identifying opportunity is one thing. Capturing it requires a superior go-to-market motion or a better product than incumbents. Josh developed both over time. The question every founder should answer: "Why can we tap the market segment the established players have left behind?"

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Agentic commerce is taking first steps. Demo of Stripe MCP in action from Jeff Weinstein. - open claude - connect stripe (via MCP) - prompt to create payment link done! All in <1 minute. Agentic commerce is very early, but you can already feel the demand building. Everyone I know uses LLMs for most of their product research now, just a matter of time before this all comes together. If folks have other demos, love to see below!

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Gas stations figured out bundling long before DTC brands. Walk inside to pay and what do you see? → “2 for $3” energy drinks → “Buy a snack, get $0.10 off gas” → “Add a car wash for $5” It’s all engineered to lift AOV in 15 seconds. DTC brands? → “Add to cart” → “Checkout” No journey. No moment. Just exit. Lesson? Your bundle doesn’t need to be clever. It just needs to: • Be visible • Feel obvious • Reward momentum Gas stations do this better than most Shopify stores.

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I’m thrilled to announce defy.vc’s investment in Birches Health as part of their $20M combined Seed and Series A funding round, alongside incredible partners like AlleyCorp, General Catalyst, Will Ventures, and others. As someone deeply passionate about backing companies that tackle important problems for our society, I couldn’t be more excited about what Birches is building—a national virtual clinic dedicated to treating gambling addiction and related behavioral disorders like gaming, sex, porn, and internet addictions. What excites me most is Birches’ innovative health assurance model: proactive, accessible, and affordable care that’s evidence-based and delivered right at home. With the explosion of legal sports betting—think nearly $1.5 billion wagered on this year’s Super Bowl alone—we’re staring down a looming public health emergency. Traditional options like hotlines or generic therapy fall short for this high-acuity issue, but Birches changes that by offering specialized therapy from trained clinicians, multimodal treatment, and peer support, all covered by major insurers like United Healthcare, Cigna, Aetna, and Blue Cross Blue Shield. It’s available in all 50 states, breaking down geographical and financial barriers that have left so many without help. The impact is already profound: 96% of patients report an improved quality of life, and 94% give Birches a 5/5 rating. By partnering with state governments, payors, and policymakers, Birches is pushing gambling addiction into the spotlight of behavioral health conversations, where it’s been neglected for too long—often leading to shame, worsened outcomes, and higher suicidality risks. This funding will supercharge their growth: expanding the provider network, boosting clinical excellence, scaling infrastructure, and deepening insurance and state partnerships to meet surging demand. Very excited to partner with Elliott Rapaport and the entire Birches team! See more about our POV in the blog post linked in the comments. #GamblingAddiction #BehavioralHealth #HealthTech #VentureCapital #Innovation

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Spoke to someone building businesses explicitly to exit—creating a portfolio from scratch and selling them directly on their own website. There are clear advantages: - pick niches with high multiples/buyer demand - track key metrics from day one - build businesses designed to be turnkey But it also raises questions for buyers: - are these companies built for long-term success? - is the founder truly invested? - can they effectively juggle multiple businesses? Still, it’s interesting - curious to see how it plays out.

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Sprouty raised a $550k seed round from AltaIR Capital to bring evidence‑based, AI‑powered parenting support to more families worldwide. The app currently helps parents navigate the first two years of their child's life, offering insights, personalized recommendations and exercises during the most demanding phase of parenting. The team built Sprouty from real experience. They bootstrapped the product to 1.7 million families across North America, Europe, Australia, and Latin America. All of that growth came from a simple idea executed well: give parents clarity, calm, and one trusted place for support. Sprouty's opportunity is clear. AI is creating a new wave in consumer products where personalization drives usefulness, stickiness, and far better unit economics. On top of that, the parenting market renews itself every day, and the need for reliable guidance is universal. But the real reason we invested is the team. They're focused, deeply committed, and they've built a strong product with limited resources. More importantly, they know exactly where they're going next. I'm glad to support founders who execute with this level of clarity and discipline. Congratulations to Dmitrii Rumbeshta and the team on this milestone!

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I always hear founders at pre seed say 'we did this without any marketing'. That's really impressive. Truly...it is. But also...why? I understand that you aren't going to hire a head of growth yet. Or buy ads. That's good. Don't do these things. But even at early stage there is a punch list of things you should 1000% be doing. Here it is: - have a coherent positioning document. make sure that you are saying things clearly, coherently and consistently. Yeah, it will change. Update it. - have a GREAT, well designed 5-10 page website. It costs like $1000, and makes you look bigger / stronger than you are. Strong signal to customers, future employees (and VCs) - a whitepaper that explains clearly what your customer problem is, your unique approach, and why you should exist. IN CUSTOMER VOICE (please). - active social channels, most importantly, YOUR OWN. I get it, I don't really want to be doing this either. In the words of a wise friend 'the best time to do content marketing was ten years ago. the second best time is today.' In the age of Ai there is no excuse for not having the above. 'No marketing' isn't the flex you think it is.

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🚨 VC Fund Alert: Creative Capital Ventures Launched €18M to Back Bold Ideas in Tech, Media & Consumer Innovation 🚀 In a time when capital efficiency and strategic value-add matter more than ever, Creative Capital Ventures Group (CCV) stepped in with an ambitious new €18 million fund — and a vision to raise €50 million by Q1 2025. Backed by Saratoga Capital Partners, Anthill Ventures, and a network of institutional & private investors, this Lisbon- and London-based venture studio brought a bold new model to early-stage VC. 🔥 🎯 What’s the play? 18 initial investments + 11 follow-ons by the end of 2024 Sectors: Tech, Digital Media, Consumer Products High-growth focus on: sports tech, entertainment, immersive IP, and wellness 💡 Why it matters: As CCV’s John D. put it: “The fund provides critical capital and helps scale innovative startups. We aim to foster long-term success for ambitious entrepreneurs.” But this isn’t just another VC fund... 🎥 Immersive IP & Creative Capital: Rich Britton is doubling down on entertainment innovation: “This fund comes at the right time — immersive content and music rights are redefining how we consume and create.” 🔧 Execution-focused Acceleration: With Pivotal, CCV’s venture studio, the fund promised “hands-on tactical support from strategy to execution,” said Dominic Joseph. 🧠 CCV’s track record is real: 150 startups impacted 20 companies founded 6 successful exits 📈 With structured investment in early-stage tech and IP assets, this fund blends venture-like returns with enhanced downside protection — a playbook that speaks directly to today’s LP mindset. 💬 If you're an LP looking to diversify into high-upside, creative-led ventures, or a founder innovating at the crossroads of tech and culture — this is the fund to watch. 🎧🎮📱 #VentureCapital #TechStartups #ImmersiveMedia #IPInvesting #ConsumerInnovation #SportsTech #WellnessEconomy #CreativeEconomy #LPs #VCFunds #EarlyStageVC #Fundraising #StartupAcceleration #CreativeCapitalVentures #PivotalStudio

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How can private markets access be unlocked by the self-directed IRA? Hear from Alto Founder & CEO Eric Satz on how they've built innovative technology and a platform to enable self-directed IRAs to access private markets investments on the latest Alt Goes Mainstream podcast. Listen to the full episode on Alt Goes Mainstream here: https://lnkd.in/eEVY_Wpj

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𝗬𝗼𝘂'𝗿𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗹𝗮𝗽𝘁𝗼𝗽, 𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗣 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁'𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟰 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀. Tomorrow's board meeting looms. They want to know why DTC revenue is down 18%. They don't want to hear about your 500 unqualified applicants or the two "perfect fits" who ghosted after round three. You put on the confident face. "We're handling it internally while we find the right leader." But internally? You're drowning. 🔻 The freelancer you hired last month just increased their rate 🔻 Your team is burned out 🔻 That recruiter who promised "top-tier talent" sent you someone who thinks Shopify Plus is a subscription box This isn't just about missing revenue. It's about you working 70-hour weeks while your kids ask why you missed another dinner. It's about wondering if leadership is one bad quarter away from "restructuring" your role. It's about carrying the weight of that last bad hire who cost you $200K and six months of momentum. You're not failing. The system is. Post-and-pray recruiting doesn't work for transformational roles. Neither does hoping the perfect candidate stumbles across your LinkedIn job post between 200 others. What actually works: 🔹 Building targeted pipelines before you need them 🔹 Embedding interim talent Day 1 while you hire right 🔹 Using scorecards that predict performance, not pedigree You didn't get to your level by doing things halfway. Stop recruiting that way. What's keeping you working past midnight – missing targets or missing talent?

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