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45th Ontario general election

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45th Ontario general election
← 2025
On or before April 11, 2030 (2030-04-11)
124 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
63 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Doug Ford Marit Stiles
Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic
Leader since March 10, 2018 February 4, 2023
Leader's seat Etobicoke North Davenport
Last election 80 seats, 42.97% 27 seats, 18.55%
Current seats 79 26
Seats needed Steady Increase 37
 
Leader John Fraser
(interim) 		Mike Schreiner
Party Liberal Green
Leader since January 22, 2026 November 15, 2009
Leader's seat Ottawa South Guelph
Last election 14 seats, 29.95% 2 seats, 4.83%
Current seats 14 2
Seats needed Increase 49 Increase 61
Incumbent Premier

Doug Ford
Progressive Conservative



The 45th Ontario general election is tentatively scheduled to be held on April 11, 2030 unless the Legislative Assembly of Ontario is dissolved earlier by the lieutenant governor of Ontario.

Standings

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Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario
Party Party leader Seats
2025 Current
Progressive Conservative Doug Ford 80 79
New Democratic Marit Stiles 27 26
Liberal John Fraser 14 14
Green Mike Schreiner 2 2
  Independent 1 2
Total 124 123

Timeline

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2025

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2026

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Ridings

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The Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015[7] increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016,[8] recommended the creation of the additional districts of Kiiwetinoong and Mushkegowuk—James Bay, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and Timmins—James Bay ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124.[9][10] This was implemented through the Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017.[11]

With the 2022 Canadian federal electoral redistribution, Ontario was allotted 1 additional seat in the House of Commons. On August 1, 2024, Premier Ford announced that Ontario would break with recent tradition and not adopt the federal electoral boundary changes for the 2025 provincial election.[12]

Ontario does not have legislation in place for a scheduled review of electoral districts and boundaries, and any changes to boundaries would require new legislation.[13]

Date of the election

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Ontario repealed its fixed election date legislation on November 27, 2025.[14][15]

Under Section 4 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms the Ontario legislature is automatically dissolved 5 years after the return of the writs for the previous general election.[16] Polling day in Ontario elections is the 5th Thursday after the date of the writ.[17]

The date fixed for the return of the writs in the 2025 general election was March 7, 2025,[18] meaning that unless the legislature is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on March 7, 2030, and the latest an election could be held is April 11, 2030.

Seat changes

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44th Parliament of Ontario - Movement in seats held up to the election (2025–present)
Party 2025 Gain/(loss) due to present
Resignation
as MPP 		Resignation
from caucus 		Expulsion Byelection
gain 		Byelection
hold
Progressive Conservative 80 (1) 79
New Democratic 27 (1) 26
Liberal 14 14
Green 2 2
Independent 1 1 2
Total 124 (1) – – 123
Changes in seats held since February 27, 2025
Seat Before Change
Date Member Party Reason Date Member Party
Sault Ste. Marie September 22, 2025 Chris Scott[19] █ PC Expelled from caucus. █ Independent
Scarborough Southwest February 3, 2026 Doly Begum[20] █ New Democratic Resigned to run for the Liberal Party in the Scarborough Southwest by-election TBA TBA Vacant

Opinion polls

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Graphical Summary

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Opinion Polling for the 45th Ontario General Election

Table of Polls

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Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Source PC NDP Liberal Green Other Margin of error Sample size Polling type Lead
Ipsos March 11, 2026 [p 1] 42 18 35 3 5 ±4.2% 801 Online 7
Abacus Data March 11, 2026 [p 2] 44 16 32 5 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 12
Liaison Strategies February 22, 2026 [p 3] 40 17 36 5 3 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 4
Abacus Data February 10, 2026 [p 4] 44 16 30 6 4 ±3.1% 1,001 Online 14
Pallas Data January 24, 2026 [p 5] 43 18 30 5 4 ±3.1% 1,015 IVR 13
Liaison Strategies January 21, 2026 [p 6] 42 17 35 3 2 ±3.1% 1,000 IVR 7
Abacus Data January 13, 2026 [p 7] 48 19 22 6 5 ±3.1% 1,006 Online 26
Liaison Strategies December 7, 2025 [p 8] 44 16 35 3 2 ±3.09% 1,000 IVR 9
Angus Reid December 1, 2025 [p 9] 41 23 28 4 4 ±3% 723 Online 13
Pallas Data November 15, 2025 [p 10] 45 18 28 6 3 ±3% 1,077 IVR 17
North Poll November 7, 2025 [p 11] 46 17 29 4 4 N/a 742 Online 17
Abacus Data November 6, 2025 [p 12] 51 19 23 3 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 28
Leger October 20, 2025 [p 13] 44 13 32 7 3 ±3.0% 1,052 Online 12
Liaison Strategies October 15, 2025 [p 14] 47 15 33 3 2 ±3.4% 800 IVR 14
Abacus Data October 15, 2025 [p 15] 51 15 25 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 26
Relay Strategies October 13, 2025 [p 16] 44 17 29 6 5 N/a 1,268 Online 15
Mainstreet Research September 18, 2025 [p 17] 48 14 29 3 5 ±3.2% 958 Online 19
Abacus Data September 17, 2025 [p 18] 52 12 24 6 6 ±3.1% 1,021 Online 28
Angus Reid September 5, 2025 [p 19] 45 22 25 4 6 ±3% 935 Online 20
Pallas Data September 4, 2025 [p 20] 45 17 26 7 5 ±3.1% 1,026 IVR 19
Abacus Data August 19, 2025 [p 21] 53 12 27 5 3 ±3.04% 1,037 Online 26
Liaison Strategies August 14, 2025 [p 22] 44 15 35 3 3 ±3.4% 800 Telephone 9
Abacus Data July 15, 2025 [p 23] 50 13 28 6 3 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 22
Pallas Data June 29, 2025 [p 24] 43 21 29 6 2 ±3% 1,080 IVR 14
Mainstreet Research June 26, 2025 [p 25] 41 17 32 3 7 ±3.2% 923 Smart IVR 9
Abacus Data June 5, 2025 [p 26] 49 14 28 5 4 ±3.1% 1,000 Online 21
Leger May 25, 2025 [p 27] 45 15 32 5 3 ±3.1% 1,025 Online 13
Liaison Strategies May 9, 2025 [p 28] 46 13 36 2 3 ±3.09% 1,000 IVR 10
Campaign Research[a] March 26, 2025 [p 29] 46 18 24 8 4 ±2.2% 1,672 Online 22
2025 election February 27, 2025 N/a 42.97 18.55 29.95 4.83 3.70 N/a N/a N/a 13.02

Notes

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  1. ^ Campaign Research is an internal PC Party polling firm led by Nick Kouvalis.[21]

References

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  1. ^ Smith Cross, Jessica; Cornwell, Steve (September 14, 2025). "BREAKING: Bonnie Crombie to step down as Ontario Liberal Party leader". The Trillium.
  2. ^ Benzie, Robert (September 23, 2025). "Marit Stiles survives leadership review with 68 per cent support, vows to 'hold Doug Ford to account'". Toronto Star.
  3. ^ Freeman, Joshua (January 14, 2026). "Bonnie Crombie no longer Ontario Liberal leader 'effective immediately'". CTVNews. Retrieved January 14, 2026.
  4. ^ Press, Allison Jones The Canadian (January 19, 2026). "Ontario Liberal caucus names John Fraser as pick for interim leader". thecanadianpressnews.ca. Retrieved January 20, 2026.
  5. ^ "Ontario Liberal Party Confirms John Fraser as Interim Leader". Ontario Liberal Party. Retrieved January 23, 2026.
  6. ^ Press, The Canadian (February 3, 2026). "Liberals announce NDP MPP Doly Begum will be candidate for Blair's federal Scarborough riding". CP24. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  7. ^ Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, S.O. 2015, c. 31
  8. ^ as a result of the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, S.O. 2016, c. 33, s. 36
  9. ^ "Report: Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission". August 8, 2017. Archived from the original on March 19, 2018. Retrieved May 1, 2018.
  10. ^ Benzie, Robert (August 8, 2017). "Ontario to get 17 new ridings, including a constituency that is largely Indigenous". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on December 6, 2017. Retrieved December 10, 2017.
  11. ^ Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017, S.O. 2017, c. 18
  12. ^ Benzie, Robert (August 1, 2024). "Ford government to break with tradition and not adopt federal boundary changes for next election". Toronto Star. Archived from the original on September 16, 2024. Retrieved September 16, 2024.
  13. ^ Benzie, Robert (July 29, 2024). "Doug Ford may be getting ready for an early election — but it's not clear how many ridings Ontario will have". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 28, 2025.
  14. ^ Jones, Allison (October 27, 2025). "Ontario to scrap fixed election dates, raise donation limit to $5,000 under new bill". The Canadian Press. Retrieved October 27, 2025.
  15. ^ Plan to Protect Ontario Act (Budget Measures), 2025 (No. 2), S.O. 2025, c. 15, s. 2(2), Sch. 7
  16. ^ "Section 4 – Maximum duration of legislative bodies". Charterpedia. Ottawa: Department of Justice. July 14, 2025. Retrieved December 28, 2025.
  17. ^ Election Act, R.S.O. 1990, c. E.6, s. 9.1(5)
  18. ^ Essensa, Greg (March 15, 2025). "Parliamentary Notice - Reuturn of Members" (PDF). www.ontario.ca. Toronto: King’s Printer for Ontario. Retrieved December 28, 2025.
  19. ^ White, Erik (September 22, 2025). "Sault MPP Chris Scott removed from Ford's PC caucus after arrest on assault, assault with weapon charges". CBC News. Retrieved December 7, 2025.
  20. ^ Tumilty, Ryan (February 3, 2026). "Mark Carney's Liberals recruit Ontario NDP deputy leader to run in Scarborough byelection". Toronto Star. Retrieved February 3, 2026.
  21. ^ "Nick Kouvalis | Canada's National Observer: Climate News". www.nationalobserver.com. Retrieved April 2, 2025.
Polls
  1. ^ "Ontario Tories Remain Ahead, but Liberals Closing the Gap" (PDF). Ipsos. March 17, 2026. Retrieved March 20, 2026.
  2. ^ "Ford Government Approval Stabilizes as Ontario Liberals Continue to Gain". Abacus Data. March 18, 2026. Retrieved March 19, 2026.
  3. ^ "Ontario: 4 Point Race, Ford PCs 40%, Leaderless Liberals 36%" (PDF). Liaison Strategies. February 25, 2026. Retrieved February 25, 2026.
  4. ^ "Ford Government Approval Falls as Liberals Surge and Ontario Politics Tightens". Abacus Data. February 12, 2026. Retrieved February 15, 2026.
  5. ^ "Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 30, NDP 18, Green 5". Pallas Data. January 29, 2026. Retrieved January 31, 2026.
  6. ^ "Ontario: PCs Lead, But 65% Disapprove of Ford" (PDF). Liaison Strategies. January 23, 2026. Retrieved January 24, 2026.
  7. ^ "Ontario PCs Start 2026 in Front, But Appetite for Change Grows as Affordability and Health Care Define the Risk". Abacus Data. January 14, 2026. Retrieved January 24, 2026.
  8. ^ "PCs lead OLP 44% to 35%, Ontarians Skeptical of Highway 401 Tunnel Expansion" (PDF). Liaison Strategies. January 2, 2026. Retrieved January 2, 2026.
  9. ^ "Government satisfaction scores fall like winter snow as Canadians blanketed in cost-of-living challenges". Angus Reid. December 17, 2025.
  10. ^ "Ontario Voting Intentions, Plus Ontarians' Opinions On Political Donations Limits, the Skills Development Fund, and the 401 Tunnel" (PDF). Pallas Data. November 17, 2025. Archived (PDF) from the original on December 8, 2025. Retrieved December 7, 2025.
  11. ^ Kohut, Alex (November 13, 2025). "Ontario Vote: PCs 46%, Liberals 29%, NDP 17%". The North Poll with Alex Kohut. Substack. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  12. ^ "Ontario PCs Still Lead by Wide Margin but Ontario NDP Rise Four in a Month". Abacus Data. November 10, 2025. Retrieved November 10, 2025.
  13. ^ "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. November 3, 2025. Retrieved November 7, 2025.
  14. ^ "Ontario: PCs Lead by 14 but Ontarians Support Speed Cameras". Liaison Strategies. October 20, 2025. Retrieved October 20, 2025.
  15. ^ "PCs Hold Commanding Lead, But 1 in 4 PC Supporters Point to a Lack of Alternative for their Support of Doug Ford". Abacus Data. October 21, 2025. Retrieved October 23, 2025.
  16. ^ Ronellenfitsch, Kyla (October 21, 2025). "In a race of hypotheticals, Boozary leads: OLP leadership". Relay with Kyla Ronellenfitsch. Substack. Retrieved October 27, 2025.
  17. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. September 22, 2025. Retrieved September 23, 2025.
  18. ^ Coletto, David (September 23, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: PCs Steady at 52% as Crombie Resigns Amid Liberal Convention Fallout". Abacus Data. Retrieved September 24, 2025.
  19. ^ Korzinski, David (September 12, 2025). "Cross-Canada Outlook – Provincial Issues, Politics, and Government Performance: Ontario".
  20. ^ "Ontario Voting Intentions, Plus Ontarians' Opinions On The Ontario Liberal Party Leadership" (PDF). September 5, 2025. Retrieved September 15, 2025.
  21. ^ Coletto, David (August 31, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs climb to 53%, widen lead over Liberals to 26 points". Abacus Data. Retrieved August 31, 2025.
  22. ^ "Ontario: PCs Lead by 9; Ontarians Split on Housing Solutions". Liaison Strategies. August 29, 2025. Retrieved August 30, 2025.
  23. ^ Coletto, David (July 24, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford PCs hit 50% in vote intention; lead Liberals by 22". Abacus Data. Retrieved July 24, 2025.
  24. ^ "Pallas Ontario Poll: PC 43, OLP 29, NDP 21, Green 6". Pallas Data. June 30, 2025. Retrieved July 4, 2025.
  25. ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Ontario" (PDF). Mainstreet Research. June 27, 2025. Retrieved July 3, 2025.
  26. ^ Coletto, David (June 10, 2025). "Abacus Data Ontario Poll: Ford Government Approval Hits New High; PCs lead by 21". Abacus Data. Retrieved June 10, 2025.
  27. ^ "Ontario Report Card" (PDF). Leger. May 29, 2025. Retrieved June 12, 2025.
  28. ^ "Ontario: PCs Lead by 10 as Ontario NDP Squeezed Out". Liaison Strategies. May 14, 2025. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
  29. ^ "Federal Election Study - Ontario Advanced Analytics Federal and Provincial Ballot Tests March 26th, 2025" (PDF). QC125. Campaign Research. Retrieved March 28, 2025.
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