We've seen the playbook that Vladimir Putin is running on the Estonian border before.
If there is military action there - and there might not be, he might still be successfully restrained by allies inside the Russian government - here is how it will go...
First, a Russian separatist movement will magically appear in the 87% ethnic Russian city of Narva. It will of course be run by FSB agents, attracting mainly criminals and the local underclass.
There will be street demonstrations and minor riots. There's an old Communist trick where you plant agents among peaceful demonstrators to fire handguns at the police, who then "overreact", firing into crowds and killing civilians.
If you are lucky, this will cause genuine popular outrage among the Russophones. But you don't need that, you just need to be able to organize a massive propaganda blitz about how Russophones are being oppressed by the fascist Estonian government.
Russia will get some help here from history. There was significant Estonian collaboration with Nazis during World War II, including active participation in Einsatzgruppe A and formation of a first Estonian SS division.
Putin's propaganda apparatus will honk about Estonians being Nazis and NATO being a neo-Nazi puppet organization. Then they will stage troops across the River Narva and occupy the city. Not a lot of troops, because they don't expect to have to fight an army.
After which they will not move any further into Estonia. Not yet.
Instead, Russia will present the world with a fait accompli. Do you really want to go to war with a nuclear superpower over one border city full of ethnic Russians?
I can't tell you what will happen after that. Putin clearly believes NATO will crawfish, and in doing so destroy itself as an effective military alliance.
He may not be wrong.
- We've seen the playbook that Vladimir Putin is running on the Estonian border before. If there is military action there - and there might not be, he might still be successfully restrained by allies inside the Russian government - here is how it will go... First, a Russian separatist movement will magically appear in the 87% ethnic Russian city of Narva. It will of course be run by FSB agents, attracting mainly criminals and the local underclass. There will be street demonstrations and minor riots. There's an old Communist trick where you plant agents among peaceful demonstrators to fire handguns at the police, who then "overreact", firing into crowds and killing civilians. If you are lucky, this will cause genuine popular outrage among the Russophones. But you don't need that, you just need to be able to organize a massive propaganda blitz about how Russophones are being oppressed by the fascist Estonian government. Russia will get some help here from history. There was significant Estonian collaboration with Nazis during World War II, including active participation in Einsatzgruppe A and formation of a first Estonian SS division. Putin's propaganda apparatus will honk about Estonians being Nazis and NATO being a neo-Nazi puppet organization. Then they will stage troops across the River Narva and occupy the city. Not a lot of troops, because they don't expect to have to fight an army. After which they will not move any further into Estonia. Not yet. Instead, Russia will present the world with a fait accompli. Do you really want to go to war with a nuclear superpower over one border city full of ethnic Russians? I can't tell you what will happen after that. Putin clearly believes NATO will crawfish, and in doing so destroy itself as an effective military alliance. He may not be wrong.
"NATO will crawfish" Is this a Southern colloquialism I'm not aware of ?
There's absolutely no incentive for the Russians to do this. They don't need another conflict, they are already struggling in Ukraine. The only thing that's likely to happen here is a NATO false-flag event to try and get themselves into the war, because the Ukrainians are losing
