Power System Risk Management

"One of the key ways to make energy systems more reliable is by maximizing flexibility — improving how well the system can adapt in real time to changes in supply and demand. The more flexible the system, the better it can handle sudden demand spikes in the event of extreme weather, such as cold snaps or heat waves, or respond to supply disruptions such as plant outages. Improving flexibility includes upgrading aging infrastructure. Much of the U.S. grid was built decades ago under different demand patterns. Modernizing the grid — by updating substations and transmission equipment, deploying advanced sensors and incorporating advanced transmission technologies (ATTs), for example — can reduce failure rates during extreme heat and cold. These technologies help operators detect problems quicker, reroute power if equipment is damaged and restore service fast. Modernization not only improves reliability but also reduces expensive emergency interventions and lowers long-term maintenance costs. Increasing grid capacity, both through deployment of ATTs and building regional and interregional transmission lines, can reduce the risk of a local weather event turning into a widespread outage. Creating a more interconnected grid allows regions to share power during shortages. Having this greater transmission capacity also help keep prices down by allowing lower-cost electricity to reach areas facing higher demand. Demand-side management options can help ease pressure on the system during extreme weather events. These include encouraging customers and large users to reduce or shift electricity use during peak periods in exchange for lower bills or leveraging distributed energy resources to help prevent shortages. Systems that rely too much on a single fuel are more vulnerable to disruption. Diversification across energy sources and technologies helps reduce the risk of issues related to fuel shortages, infrastructure failures and localized weather impacts. Finally, policy is also critical. It’s vital that incentives are properly aligned with modern needs for flexibility and preparedness. This can help utilities make system investments that really work in extreme weather and minimize costs to consumers in both the short and the long run." Kelly Lefler World Resources Institute https://lnkd.in/e5syqXQp

For TSOs, the energy transition has moved decisively from strategy to execution. Recent expert discussions on grid reliability highlighted a reality every system operator now faces: power systems are being operated closer to their physical limits, with less inertia, higher volatility, and far greater uncertainty than legacy planning frameworks were designed to manage. In this environment, deterministic capacity limits and offline security studies are no longer sufficient. Executives need operational answers in real time: How much load can the grid safely carry right now? For how long? And with what confidence level? This is why probabilistic, real-time prediction of load and network capacity is becoming a core operational capability. It allows operators to replace conservative static margins with quantified risk, enabling higher asset utilisation, reduced congestion costs, and safer integration of renewables — without compromising security of supply. This shift is not optional. Under the EU regulatory framework led by ACER, advanced probabilistic and real-time approaches to capacity calculation and operational security become mandatory by end-2027. Compliance will be assessed not on intent, but on demonstrable operational capability. For TSO leadership, the message is clear: • Reliability is now a probabilistic outcome, not a deterministic assumption • Regulatory compliance and real-time operations are converging • Competitive advantage will accrue to operators who can safely run closer to true system limits The question is no longer whether probabilistic real-time capacity forecasting will be adopted — but who will be ready in time.

The recent power outage across Malaysia, costing the economy an estimated RM 450-650 million in just a few hours, was a dramatic reminder of a lesson I've spent my career championing: never ignore the small things. The trigger for this massive economic disruption wasn't a complex cyber-attack or a catastrophic equipment failure. It was a lightning strike at a single power plant. A predictable, common event. This single point of failure cascaded through the grid, plunging the nation's economic heartlands—the Klang Valley and Johor—into darkness. For years, I have advised clients, especially those running critical facilities, that the most devastating consequences often stem from the smallest oversights. This is a classic example. While the addition of surge arrestors is a recommended good practice, it is often not mandated by government agencies. Consequently, many facility owners, looking to save on initial capital expenditure, don't see the need to install them—especially for extra low voltage (ELV) systems that are perceived as low risk. This event proves a point I've made time and again: the integrity of a small signal line, a grounding wire, or a surge protector can be the difference between a normal day and a national economic event. The cost of proper protection is infinitesimal compared to the cost of the downtime. To my network of engineers, facility operators, and business leaders: let this be a wake-up call. When was the last time you audited your entire system for these "small" points of failure? Are you confident your most critical assets are protected not just from major disasters, but from the mundane threats that can, as we've just seen, cause the most damage? Don't wait for the storm to find the cracks in your foundation. #RiskManagement #LightningStrike #Resilience #PowerOutage #CriticalFacilities #BusinessContinuity

Major Grid Failure in South-East Europe: A Wake-Up Call for Power System Resilience On June 21, 2024, a severe grid incident in South-East Europe triggered widespread blackouts across Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Croatia, disrupting the interconnected Continental Europe power system. What happened? 1. The failure began with a short circuit on two 400 kV transmission lines, caused by vegetation proximity, leading to cascading outages. 2. Within minutes, the voltage collapsed, causing the loss of 2,214 MW of generation and a major blackout. 3. The restoration process took nearly four hours, relying heavily on cross-border coordination. Key Lessons for Grid Stability: a. Vegetation Management Matters: Both initial short circuits were caused by inadequate clearance, highlighting the need for better maintenance policies. b. Real-Time System Awareness is Critical: The N-1 security analysis failed to detect voltage instability, underlining the need for improved dynamic monitoring. c. Resilience in High-Renewable Grids: Air conditioning demand accounted for 30-35% of total load, making voltage stability more vulnerable in heatwaves. d. Cross-Border Coordination is Essential: The top-down restoration strategy worked, but slow communication between TSOs delayed recovery. What’s Next? The report recommends: 1. Revising vegetation control policies near high-voltage lines 2. Enhancing real-time grid observability to predict voltage collapses 3. Optimising reactive power compensation to prevent instability 4. Fast-tracking digital grid technologies to improve response times The incident serves as a reminder that grid modernisation must go beyond adding renewable generation, it requires stronger transmission networks, real-time monitoring, and better cross-border coordination. Together with Prof. Aoife Foley, Chair in Net Zero Infrastructure at The University of Manchester, we are working to find innovative solutions to manage power system events like this as we move toward net-zero targets. What do you think? How can power systems better prepare for grid contingencies? #PowerSystems #GridStability #EnergyTransition #NetZero #Blackout #Transmission #GridResilience #VoltageStability

Proactive Risk Assessment Effective risk management is fundamental to operational excellence. Before commencing any task regardless of its scale or complexity a structured risk assessment must be conducted to safeguard people, assets, the environment, and organizational performance. A disciplined approach should address the following key considerations: 1). Hazard Identification – What could go wrong? Systematically identify all potential hazards associated with the task, including: Unsafe acts and unsafe conditions Equipment or system failures Human factors and competency gaps Environmental influences Process deviations or procedural non-compliance Early hazard identification is the foundation of risk prevention. 2). Likelihood Assessment – How likely is it to occur? Evaluate the probability of occurrence by considering: Historical incident data and near-miss trends Effectiveness of existing control measures Task complexity and operational pressures Workforce competence, training, and supervision Site-specific and environmental conditions Understanding likelihood enables informed decision-making and prioritization. 3). Consequence Evaluation – What would be the impact? Assess the severity of potential outcomes across critical dimensions: People: Injury, occupational illness, or fatality Assets: Equipment damage, downtime, financial loss Environment: Pollution, contamination, regulatory breach Quality & Compliance: Defects, rework, contractual or legal non-conformance Reputation: Brand damage and stakeholder confidence Both probability and impact must be evaluated together to determine overall risk exposure. 4). Control Effectiveness – Are safeguards adequate? Confirm that preventive and protective measures are: Properly implemented Clearly communicated Understood by all involved personnel Monitored for effectiveness Controls may include engineering solutions, administrative procedures, permit-to-work systems, isolation protocols, supervision, training, and appropriate PPE. 5). Risk Reduction – Can the risk be minimized further? Where risk remains unacceptable, apply the Hierarchy of Controls in order of effectiveness: Elimination Substitution Engineering Controls Administrative Controls Personal Protective Equipment (last line of defense) Continuous improvement should always be the objective. Risk management is not a reactive exercise conducted after an incident, it is a proactive leadership responsibility embedded in daily operations. #SHEQ #RiskLeadership #OperationalExcellence #SafetyCulture #RiskManagement

I just published a research paper that challenges how we model risk. And the result will make most project managers uncomfortable. ↓ Standard Monte Carlo assumes risks fire independently. They don't. They fire in chains. Risk A delays procurement. Procurement delay pushes mobilisation. Mobilisation delay compresses testing. Compressed testing forces rework. Rework blows contingency. That's not bad luck. That's a cascade. And your risk register cannot see it. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ I spent months building a framework to model exactly this — Probabilistic Chain Analysis (PCA). The result from a UK highways case study: ▸ One pre-mobilisation intervention ▸ £250,000 reduction in P90 cost exposure ▸ £15,000 management cost ▸ 16.7x return on risk management effort Not because we worked harder. Because we looked at the right node. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The methodology: → Map risks as a Directed Acyclic Graph (not a flat register) → Assign conditional probabilities using Bayesian Networks → Run coupled Monte Carlo simulation → Identify cascade lift factor — which node is amplifying everything? → Intervene there. Not everywhere. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ The paper is 27 pages. Open access. No paywall. Validated across 16,000 infrastructure projects across 8 sectors. UK highways. Solar EPC. Hospitals. Power plants. Same pattern every time. The most dangerous risk isn't the most probable one. It's the most connected one. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📄 Full paper (free): in comments ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Have you ever seen a cascade take down a project that looked fine on paper? Drop it in the comments. I read every one. #ProjectManagement #RiskManagement #MonteCarlo #BayesianNetworks #Infrastructure #EPC #ProjectControls #PMP #Quantitative

From Ransomware to Blackouts: The Real Threat to Power Grids In 2015, hackers shut down Ukraine’s grid, cutting power to 230,000 people. It was the first confirmed cyberattack to take down an electric grid and a clear warning that smart grids are high-value targets. Since then, incidents like the Colonial Pipeline ransomware in 2021 and Enercity’s disruption in 2022 have shown how digital intrusions translate into real-world blackouts and shortages. Modern grids depend on SCADA, EMS, IEDs (Intelligent Electronic Devices) and RTUs (Remote Terminal Units). These communicate through IEC 61850 in modern substations or legacy protocols like DNP3 and Modbus, many lacking encryption. Attackers exploit these weak points to manipulate control signals or pivot deeper into networks. Supply chain risk compounds the problem. Utilities rely on equipment from global vendors such as Siemens, ABB, or GE, and a single vulnerability in an IED can compromise the entire grid. SBOMs (Software Bill of Materials) are becoming essential, enabling operators to demand transparency and track vulnerabilities across every component deployed in substations and control rooms. Lessons are clear. Ukraine highlighted the danger of unsecured remote access, while Enercity proved the value of strong network segmentation to isolate operations. Proactive cyber hygiene and incident response drills are far cheaper than recovering from outages. Regulators are tightening requirements. In North America, NERC CIP enforces baseline controls for the bulk power system. Globally, IEC 62443 guides secure design of industrial networks. In Europe, NIS2 and ENTSO-E’s cybersecurity network code require operators to adopt risk management and incident reporting measures. Looking ahead, Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) pose the greatest challenge. Managing thousands of solar panels, storage batteries, and EV chargers through DERMS platforms creates a vast, decentralized attack surface. Without strong authentication, monitoring, and segmentation, these assets could destabilize grids at scale. Cybersecurity in power grids is no longer optional. Utilities must move beyond compliance, enforce supplier transparency with SBOMs, and prepare for massive DER integration. The future of energy reliability depends on securing both central control rooms and the countless devices at the edge. #CyberSecurity #SmartGrid #IEC62443 #NIS2 #NERC #CriticalInfrastructure #PowerGrid #DER #SBOM #Resilience References 1. https://lnkd.in/ddZA5ZTt 2. https://lnkd.in/dfW8D3UX 3. https://lnkd.in/dZFpiwR3 4. https://lnkd.in/dpvvBePd

Forecasting Risk in Today’s Power System Electricity prices follow human decisions, not formulas. They move with the weather, demand, fuel cost, and strategy. In 2012, we built a model that used Bayesian learning and stochastic games to forecast price distributions rather than single points. It worked then. It’s essential now. The system has changed. North America’s grid is managed through six NERC regional entities. ISOs and RTOs run about two-thirds of U.S. demand. Market operators now rely on probabilistic and Monte Carlo analysis for planning, pricing, and reliability. The old deterministic view is gone. The numbers show the shift. U.S. electricity demand set records in 2024 and again in 2025. Growth comes from data centers, electric vehicles, and manufacturing. The U.S. will add 63 gigawatts of new capacity this year, 81 percent of which will come from solar and batteries. Utility-scale storage will pass 65 GW by 2026. Renewables’ share of generation will climb from 23 percent in 2024 to 27 percent in 2026. Natural gas will decline toward 39 percent, and coal will fall below 14 percent. The key lessons remain. 1. Learn continuously. Bayesian updating incorporates new data—weather, bids, outages—to keep forecasts up to date. 2. Model real behavior. Prices form from competing decisions under limits, not from ideal equations. 3. Show the full range. A probability curve gives investors, traders, and planners the truth about exposure and resilience. The tools are better. GPU computing and scenario reduction now make real-time probabilistic forecasting routine. ISOs use stochastic unit commitment and risk-based adequacy methods. These drive real investment and operational choices, not academic models. The outcome is clear. Forecasting means measuring uncertainty, not hiding it. The most resilient organizations are those that see risk early, price it correctly, and act before others react. We forecast risk because risk drives every real decision—capital, reliability, and trust. The grid’s future will belong to those who treat uncertainty as information, not noise. — Sources: NERC State of Reliability 2025; EIA Today in Energy (May–Oct 2025); FERC Market Reports; ISO/RTO Council Data; Amin & Peck Probabilistic Price Model. #AI #Analytics #Bayesian #Data #Energy #Engineering #Foresight #Forecasting #Grid #Innovation #Leadership #Mathematics #Modeling #Optimization #Probability #Resilience #Risk #Simulation #Sustainability #Systems #Technology

⚡ 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗦𝗺𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹-𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲, 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲-𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗶𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆—𝗯𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗮𝗶𝗹𝘂𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻. Transformers have 𝗺𝘂𝗹𝘁𝗶-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 and are among the 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘀𝘁 grid assets. Waiting for a unit to run hot and fail isn’t strategy—it’s 𝗮𝘃𝗼𝗶𝗱𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸. 🔧 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝘃𝗲: Use AMI data + ambient temperature to build a 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹 that shows 𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗱𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗶𝗻 (𝗻𝗲𝗮𝗿) 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲. 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗶𝘁 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀 (𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻): 📡 𝗔𝗴𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲: Sum per-meter load to each service transformer (phase-aware). 🌡️ 𝗔𝗱𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁: Apply a 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲-𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴, not just nameplate. 🧮 𝗦𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲: Track 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗶𝗻, 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝗻𝘂𝘁𝗲𝘀, and a thermal 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘀𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗲. 🚨 𝗔𝗰𝘁: Trigger alerts + playbooks (phase balancing, mobile units, targeted upsizing). 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀: • 𝗙𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝗸 𝗿𝗼𝗹𝗹𝘀 and unplanned outages. • 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘅—replace the few units in true thermal distress, 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁. • 𝗘𝗩/𝗣𝗩 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀—spot clustering early, plan upgrades where it matters. • 𝗖𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘀—street-level messaging during heat events. 𝗣𝗶𝗹𝗼𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟵𝟬 𝗱𝗮𝘆𝘀 (𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗼𝗸): 🧭 Pick 𝟮 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘀 / 𝟯𝟬𝟬–𝟱𝟬𝟬 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿𝘀 with EV/PV growth 🔗 Validate 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿 �� 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗲𝗿 mapping and per-phase balance 🧠 Stand up 𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲-𝗮𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 + 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗹𝗱𝘀 📊 Run through a peak season; field-check the 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝟮𝟬 alerts 🎯 Roll out if you see 𝗳𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘀 and 𝗯𝗲𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 of replacements 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗻𝗼𝘄: You already have 𝗔𝗠𝗜, 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿, 𝗚𝗜𝗦, and ops know-how. This turns data into 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻—not just post-mortems. ❓ 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: If you could see transformer risk 𝗮𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝘀, what decision would you make 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 that you usually make 𝗮𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 a failure? #SmartGrid #GridModernization #Transformer #UtilityAnalytics #AMI #DistributionGrid #Reliability #DER #EVCharging #Operations #DataEngineering #PowerSystems

𝗜𝘁'𝘀 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆: 3 Baltic states turning into an island for 24h, cutting power links with Russia, before connecting to Europe. As a power engineer, this is a very unusual event. Operating in island mode — whether for a single power plant or an entire region — comes with significant risks. A power plant running in isolation must carefully balance supply and demand, maintain frequency and voltage stability, and manage load variations without grid support. Any sudden disruption can lead to instability or blackouts. The Baltic countries face similar challenges as they prepare to disconnect from the Russian energy system before synchronizing with the European grid. During this transition, they will operate in island mode, making them vulnerable to: 🔹 Frequency and Voltage Instability – Without the Russian or European grids to stabilize fluctuations, maintaining a steady 50 Hz frequency will be crucial. 🔹 Load and Generation Balancing – Any imbalance between power supply and demand could trigger outages or forced load shedding. 🔹 Grid Security Risks – Cyber threats or technical failures could be harder to manage without external backup. 🔹 Black Start Challenges – If the system goes down, restarting without external support is complex and resource-intensive. While a single power plant in island mode risks local blackouts, the Baltic region faces system-wide disruptions if not managed properly. Careful planning, reserve capacity, and real-time monitoring will be key to a smooth transition to the European grid. Fingers crossed for the Baltic linemen and power engineers 🤞⚡ Full coverage on CNN: https://lnkd.in/dpEdwGr9 on BBC: https://lnkd.in/ezy_Tmst