Shipping and Commodity Flows by S&P Global Energy

#LinkedInLiveAlert - Join us 𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗼𝘄 at 2PM (Singapore / China Standard Time) for an exclusive preview of the conversations to take place on the ground at the upcoming Singapore Coking Coal Conference 2026. Topic: Coking Coal 2026: Mongolian supply boom meets China steel slowdown Key questions answered during the session: - Will Mongolia continue to dominate China's coking coal scene? - At what price spread do mills substitute Mongolian coal for premium Australian HCC? Moderator: Rohan Somwanshi, Managing Editor, APAC-EMEA Metals News, S&P Global Energy Guest: JinSong Tang, Head of Coking Coal, JSL Global Commodities Register your place: https://okt.to/BZQY3u

Last chance to register for our upcoming networking evening next Monday, June 1 at the Piraeus Marine Club. Join our experts and market participants as we discuss what lies ahead for the shipping sector in 2026 and beyond. Find out more and register here: https://okt.to/S7L2b8

𝗔𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗻 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗰𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝟰𝟵% 𝗼𝗳 𝟮𝗤𝟮𝟲 𝗔𝗴𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝗹𝗸 𝗗𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗝𝗞𝗧 💡US gains market share in region: American exports to JKT rose, benefiting from redirected trade flows during the US–Chinese tariff dispute, especially in corn. 💡Stable volumes, mature demand: Agribulk shipments in JKT remained broadly flat in 1Q26 (+1% y/y), signaling a balanced and mature market with no major supply or demand shocks. 💡Corn dominates the mix: Corn accounted for almost half of total imports, reinforcing its central role in regional food and feed demand. 💡Slight slowdown ahead: Full‑year imports are expected to decline as US‑Chinese trade normalizes, reducing the need for JKT as an alternative destination. #CommoditiesatSea Rahul Kapoor Pranay Shukla Caio Cugler

𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗮𝗹 𝗹𝗼𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗱𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗴𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗲𝘁𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻; 𝗘𝗹 𝗡𝗶ñ𝗼 𝗼𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝘂𝗽𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲 💡4M26 down 5 percent y/y, standout flows to Southeast Asia: Coal loadings from Canada down 5% y/y over 4M26, as weak steel production in Japan and increased Mongolian overland shipments to Mainland China eat into Canadian volumes. Increased metallurgical coal flows to Southeast Asia stand out. 💡Warmer temperatures could induce more volumes to East Asia: The increasing likelihood of El Niño conditions as early as June 2026 indicates a greater reliance on thermal coal this summer, given that LNG disruptions continue to strain energy flows. 💡Nearby Russian material offers a substitute to JKT buyers over Canadian supply: Russian supply continues to offer a more attractive and nearby alternative to Canadian thermal coal supply in the face of ramping up temperatures and insecurity in LNG supply. 💡Forecast: Full‑year exports are expected to remain mildly higher y/y (+0.6% y/y) on coal-fired generation seeing a likely boost on El Nino along with disruptions to LNG flows, offset on the other hand by weaker prospects for metallurgical coal flows as Mongolian overland volumes eat into Mainland Chinese seaborne demand. #CommoditiesatSea Rahul Kapoor Pranay Shukla Vadim Yafasov

Strait of Hormuz disruption threatens extended decline in global tanker demand ▪️Oil on water at 1.07 bil barrels in April, below 3-year average ▪️Crude tanker demand may fall 11%-13% if strait shut: BIMCO ▪️Freight rates plateau as flows divert to alternative routes https://okt.to/g5L6ol

What happens when you view the energy system as one connected story?    Our new Energy Expansion Navigator offers an interactive lens on energy scenarios, supply, demand, climate risk, and critical minerals, bringing connections into focus and surfacing insights that are easy to miss when viewed in isolation.    Explore the experience now and let us know what you think: https://okt.to/koAfJL #EnergyInsights #EnergyMarket #energyinnovation

Dangote is pulling in record crude volumes — and reshaping Atlantic Basin flows. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is set to hit new highs, with ~612 kb/d of crude intake in May, surpassing April’s record. But the bigger story is what’s changing around it — and how flows are responding. 𝗗𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗯𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗲 — 𝗯𝘂𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝘀 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗮𝘆 Nigerian grades still make up ~84% of intake, but inflows from Libya and Guyana signal a gradual broadening of the slate. 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗡𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝘂𝗽 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗲𝘅𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 As Dangote diversifies, more local barrels are pushed into the seaborne market — with exports rising to ~1.19 million b/d in May, including ~306 kb/d to Southeast Asia (six‑year high). 𝗗𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗼𝘁𝗲'𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝗳𝗹𝗼𝘄𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 Clean product exports eased to ~318 kb/d from April’s 480 kb/d peak, with strong domestic retention (~172 kb/d) but exports to NW Europe surged to 77 kb/d, with a first jet fuel shipment to China since June 2024. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆: Dangote is no longer just absorbing crude — it is becoming a swing factor in Atlantic Basin flows, freeing more Nigerian crude barrels for export while reinforcing its role as a key source of product supply. Source: S&P Global Commodities at Sea �� Crude Oil Weekly (2026W21) #OilMarkets #CrudeFlows #Shipping #Nigeria #Dangote #EnergyMarkets #CommoditiesAtSea

Last chance to register for our upcoming networking evening next Monday, June 1 at the Piraeus Marine Club. Join our experts and market participants as we discuss what lies ahead for the shipping sector in 2026 and beyond. Find out more and register here: https://okt.to/dXnjwF

As global oil markets respond to shifting trade flows and geopolitical uncertainty highlighted, APPEC remains the key meeting place for the energy industry. From crude and refined products to shipping, geopolitics, and energy transition, APPEC brings together the decision-makers driving the market forward. 📍Singapore 📅 September 2026 Secure your place today and save before the Super Early Bird deadline on June 12. https://okt.to/P5IFVs

From market fundamentals to scenario planning, CERA provides the independent intelligence to stay ahead of shifting energy markets and uncover opportunities faster. Discover the insight shaping the future of energy 👇