AI for Good: A conversation with Josh Tyrangiel JUNE 9 | 9:00 - 10:00 AM ET | LIVESTREAM & IN-PERSON Josh Tyrangiel, staff writer for The Atlantic and author of the new book AI for Good: How Real People Are Using Artificial Intelligence to Fix Things That Matter, will join AESG Director Melissa Kearney for a discussion of the book's themes and implications for US economic policy. Register here to attend in person or watch online: https://lnkd.in/etBQuSNF
Aspen Economic Strategy Group
Non-profit Organizations
Washington, DC 806 followers
The Aspen Economic Strategy Group promotes evidence-based solutions to significant U.S. economic challenges.
About us
The Aspen Economic Strategy Group (AESG), a non-profit program of the Aspen Institute, is composed of a diverse, bipartisan group of distinguished leaders and thinkers with the goal of promoting evidence-based solutions to significant U.S. economic challenges. Co-chaired by former U.S. treasury secretaries Henry M. Paulson, Jr. and Timothy F. Geithner, the AESG fosters the exchange of economic policy ideas and seeks to clarify the lines of debate on emerging economic issues while promoting bipartisan relationship-building among current and future generations of policy leaders in Washington.
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Updates
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How will falling fertility rates hurt the economy? "The worry is about a shrinking population in a less dynamic economy that delivers the continued increase in living standards that we’ve become accustomed to." AESG Director Melissa Kearney spoke with Soumaya Keynes on her Financial Times podcast The Economics Show about the AESG's recent volume, "Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives." Listen to the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/eX29HVwM
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Roughly half of US counties lost population between 2010 and 2020, a trend driven overwhelmingly by declining fertility rather than changes in migration. In his recent AESG paper, "Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments," Jeffrey Clemens UC San Diego examines the challenges that population decline pose for state and local governments. Explore the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gmdC-3jQ
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The discussion of population decline is often dismissed, minimized, or even welcomed with arguments that downplay its urgency because of the proposed environmental benefits. In his recent AESG paper, "The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated," Kevin Kuruc Middlebury College addresses the idea that a shrinking population might offer environmental benefits, characterizing this idea as a common misconception. Explore the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gh8TF7WP
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Last week, AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue testified at the United States Congress Joint Economic Committee's hearing, “Keeping Our Promises: Labor Inflows, Maintaining Competitiveness, and Supporting an Aging Population." Pardue's testimony draws on his own research and on the AESG's commissioned work. He first laid out the economic challenges presented by the country's current demographic trends. "The aging of the population is driving the country’s rising debt – in turn reducing the capacity for other productive uses of public spending," he said. "These shifts have reduced America’s economic dynamism and diminished the labor market prospects for younger workers." He outlined three important steps policymakers can take to confront the challenges posed by falling birth rates and an aging population: 1. Reform the country's high-skilled immigration system to boost growth, raise business dynamism, and reduce the federal deficit. 2. Invest in our future generations, from childhood through young adulthood, to create more skilled, productive workers and citizens. 3. Take policy steps to make raising a family more affordable and accessible for young adults today. Watch the hearing here: https://lnkd.in/g5YXqWfM
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Low fertility and population aging have shaped the U.S. federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing in large part to the growing federal debt. In a new AESG paper, “Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook,” Luke Pardue and Lisa J. Dettling examine the role of these trends in shaping America’s fiscal position – and the potential for higher fertility to meaningfully relieve fiscal pressures in the coming decades. Explore the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gkbWkeEK
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Demographic shifts are reshaping the U.S. labor market, as the share of the population within the working age has begun to decline. In a new AESG paper, “The Age Divide in the American Workplace,” Nicola Bianchi, Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management and Matteo Paradisi, EIEF - Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance lay out the consequences of an aging US workforce. Explore the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/gZ9DG2ps
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Aspen Economic Strategy Group reposted this
The United States is undergoing a profound demographic shift. Fertility rates are declining. Americans are living longer. And the economic implications will shape our future in ways we’re only beginning to understand. In Demographic Headwinds: The Economic Consequences of Lower Birth Rates and Longer Lives, the Aspen Economic Strategy Group examines how these trends will affect the labor market, fiscal sustainability, state and local public finances, and environmental outcomes. Understanding these dynamics is essential to building policies that support long-term economic resilience and shared prosperity. Explore the research and join the conversation on how we prepare for the decades ahead: https://lnkd.in/eeFefwQ5
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The United States is in the midst of a consequential demographic transition, marked by the dual trends of a sustained decline in the country’s birth rate and a rise in life expectancy. Since 2007, the birth rate has been on a downward trend, falling to a historic low in 2023. At the same time, average life expectancy has risen by 8.4 years since 1960. Taken together, these trends are creating both a slower-growing and aging US population. In a new series of papers, the AESG considers the long-term economic impacts of these shifts, including the effects on the US labor market, US fiscal sustainability, state and local public finances, and environmental sustainability. Here we highlight five key charts from this series and find links to each of the papers below. Introduction By AESG Director Melissa Kearney and Policy Director Luke Pardue https://lnkd.in/gmDhqYfR The Age Divide in the American Workplace By Nicola Bianchi, Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management and Matteo Paradisi, EIEF - Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance https://lnkd.in/gZ9DG2ps Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook By AESG Policy Director Luke Pardue and Lisa J. Dettling, Federal Reserve Board https://lnkd.in/gkbWkeEK Implications of Low Fertility and Declining Populations for the Operations of US State and Local Governments By Jeffrey Clemens, UC San Diego https://lnkd.in/gmdC-3jQ The Environmental Benefits of Low Fertility and Population Decline are Overstated By Kevin Kuruc, Middlebury College https://lnkd.in/gh8TF7WP
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In his latest column for The Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip examines the economic consequences of the United States’ aging population. "There has never been a better time in America to be old," he writes. "Yet it also exposes our disjointed national priorities. We keep pouring resources into making the elderly comfortable and happy when the economy’s pressure points lie elsewhere." In the article, Ip cites AESG Director Melissa Kearney and Policy Director Luke Pardue’s AESG paper, “The Economic Case for Smart Investing in America’s Youth.” "In 2019 the federal government spent more than $29,000 on everyone 65 and over through Social Security, Medicare, civil service and military and retirement benefits, five times what it spent on every child under 18. That is according to a study by economists Melissa Kearney and Luke Pardue of the Aspen Economic Strategy Group," writes Ip. "By 2023, spending on each elderly person had risen 19% after inflation; on each child, just 2%." Read the article here: https://lnkd.in/eCFWHDyx