Obligation Architecture vs Philoxenia: Building Trust in Afghanistan

When Senior General Min Aung Hlaing transferred command authority to Ye Win Oo, much of the discussion among Myanmar analysts focused on personalities. The dominant narrative was familiar: this was about trust. About choosing a loyalist over Vice Senior General Soe Win—who is often seen as more popular and charismatic within the military—and avoiding the risks of empowering a potential rival. But this framing misses the bigger picture. Progressive Grassroots Initiative's latest assessment argues that this transition should not be understood primarily in terms of individual preferences or internal rivalries. Instead, it points to a deeper institutional shift—one in which intelligence is no longer just a supporting arm of the military but increasingly central to how power is organised and exercised. What we may be witnessing is not simply leadership consolidation, but a move toward a more surveillance-driven model of rule—shaped by the integration of intelligence, data systems, and external security partnerships. This has implications not only for repression inside Myanmar, but also for how the regime engages beyond its borders, including its capacity to monitor and exert pressure on diaspora communities. This is not just about who leads. It is about how power is changing. Read the full piece here: https://lnkd.in/greh5sxZ Burmese Version: https://lnkd.in/gQ6QUN6h

Today the war is no more a military battle only, It’s a full-scale war of narratives. Perception. Story. Legitimacy. Recent developments in US-Iran conflict show escalating tensions from naval blockades to fragile ceasefire attempts and global political divisions. But look deeper, and you notice something more strategic. Every action is accompanied by a carefully crafted narrative. As communicators, there’s a powerful takeaway. PR is no longer a support function. It is strategy. Whether in geopolitics or business. The first narrative shapes public opinion. Repetition builds perceived truth. Emotional framing drives alignment. Silence creates speculation. From brands to nations - Those who control the narrative, control the outcome. Would love to hear your perspective. #PRStrategy #ReputationManagement #Geopolitics #Narrative #Media #Communication

Last week, Sudanese journalist Yousra Elbagir was subjected to a wave of online hate and misogynoir following her candid reporting for Sky News on the ground in #BurkinaFaso. The attacks were led by online zealots of #IbrahimTraoré—followers who often resort to intimidation to silence any narrative that doesn't strictly praise the military leader. Since seizing power in a 2022 coup and suspending all political parties earlier this year, Traoré’s digital "army" has enjoyed massive algorithmic visibility, often drowning out the voices of local Burkinabe and African journalists. Attempts to silence women in media through digital violence is widespread, and the scale of this current coordinated harassment is a direct threat to press freedom across the continent. Moreover, in #BurkinaFaso, the media has been systematically repressed, allowing the Traore saviour following to flourish with no counter-narratives about lived realities vs claims of achievements widely shared in a misinformation parade online. Read this newly published article by Dr. Folahanmi Aina, a Political Scientist and lecturer at SOAS University of London, titled: "Ibrahim Traore: Burkina Faso’s saviour, dictator or revolutionary anti-imperialist." Dr. Aina argues that: "This authoritarian turn is not incidental but structurally embedded in Traore’s political project. Revolutionary narratives often require a permanent state of exception, in which emergency becomes routine, and pluralism is reframed as betrayal." He also speaks to the fragile "politics of hope" sustaining the regime: "Without tangible improvements in livelihoods and security, revolutionary legitimacy risks exhaustion. Increasingly, this legitimacy is sustained through the strategic use of social media and other means of AI-generated videos that portray Traore as a heroic, defiant, and omnipresent revolutionary figure."  Dr. Aina highlights the selective appropriation of #ThomasSankara as a revolutionary symbol: "Sankara’s populism was rooted in mass political education, participatory governance, and social transformation, whereas Traore’s version is more heavily securitized and militarized. The symbolic continuity serves to legitimize rupture, allowing Traore to anchor his authority in a revered historical legacy while diverging from its substantive practices." He concludes, "Traore’s rule reveals how states under siege recalibrate legitimacy, redefine sovereignty, and normalize exception as permanence. The danger is not simply democratic erosion, but the entrenchment of a political order in which war becomes the primary organizing principle of authority. Until then, he remains a figure suspended between salvation and domination, embodying both the hope and the peril of a post-colonial revolt." Ultimately, to build any revolution, we must go beyond disinformation and connect with lived realities. This is much-needed knowledge, Dr Aina!

I had the opportunity to attend the National Aboriginal Trust Officers Association (NATOA) 13th Annual Trust & Investment Conference in Ottawa. This conference brought together Indigenous leaders, trustees, and investment professionals to discuss best practices in trust governance, responsible investing, and long-term economic sustainability for Indigenous communities. With many First Nations establishing and managing long-term community trusts, these discussions are increasingly important to ensure strong governance, transparency, and sustainable growth for future generations. I appreciated the opportunity to learn from peers and experts and to continue strengthening governance and investment knowledge to support Indigenous communities. Thanks to #NATOA for organizing this important event. #IndigenousLeadership #FirstNations #Governance #TrustManagement #EconomicDevelopment #IndigenousFinance

New publication on Zenodo: Al-Dawli, A. (2026). القيم والأخلاق العسكرية في العصر النبوي [Military Values and Ethics in the Prophetic Era]. This article explores the ethical and military principles in the Prophetic era, with a focus on their contemporary relevance. Access the full paper here: https://lnkd.in/dDhnxBk6 #OpenAccess #IslamicStudies #MilitaryEthics #Zenodo

I am pleased to share my recent SSRN working paper: U.S.-Iran War Through Ansoff’s Lens: Strategic Misfit in a High-Turbulence Conflict This paper applies Igor Ansoff’s Strategic Success framework to the U.S.-Iran conflict by examining the relationship among environmental turbulence, strategic aggressiveness, capability responsiveness, and strategic fit. The central argument is that military or organizational power alone is not enough. In highly turbulent environments, performance depends on whether strategy, capability, and environmental conditions are properly aligned. When an actor applies a lower-turbulence strategic logic to a higher-turbulence environment, even superior resources may produce disappointing outcomes. The paper is written as a neutral academic and strategic analysis. It does not endorse or oppose any government, political actor, military action, or ideology. Rather, it uses Ansoff’s framework to understand better how strategic misfit can emerge in complex, nonlinear, high-risk environments. I welcome comments, feedback, and scholarly discussion. SSRN link: https://lnkd.in/gQVgYak6 #StrategicManagement #Ansoff #GeopoliticalRisk #Iran #MilitaryStrategy #EnvironmentalTurbulence #SSRN

Democracy’s global decline may be easing, with the latest EIU index showing that nearly three-quarters of countries held steady or improved, driven in part by gains in Latin America. Notably, while Canada climbed to ninth place, the United States declined amid deepening political polarization and institutional strain, remaining a flawed democracy. Map by The Economist #Canada #EU #Europe #NATO #Security #War #Military #Politics #Geopolitics #InternationalAffairs #Канада #ЄС #Європа #НАТО #Безпека #Війна #Військоваполітика #Геополітика

𝗢𝗿𝗴𝗮𝗻𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗳𝗮𝘂𝗹𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗳𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁. Competence in one paradigm actively resists recognition that a different paradigm is needed. The better an institution is at its current job, the harder it is to learn a new one, because its incentives, promotion criteria, and self-image all reward the old competence. 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗿𝗲𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗿𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗼𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗼𝗽 𝘄𝗵𝗼 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘁𝗲𝗰𝘁𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀. Field officers figure things out constantly. Whether that knowledge propagates depends on whether senior leadership treats deviation as insight or insubordination. Templer protected adaptation. Westmoreland did not. 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗲 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 𝗱𝗼𝗲𝘀. Body counts in Vietnam weren't just a bad measurement, they were a causal force that pulled the entire organization toward operations that produced bodies, regardless of whether those operations advanced the actual goal. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗴𝗲𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝘄𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗲𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗷𝗼𝗯 𝗶𝘀. #OrganizationalLearning #AIAdoption #ChangeManagement 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gPAXkAb3

⚖️ When Institutions Bend, Nations Falter A reflection on civil–military balance and governance integrity The recent turbulence within the U.S. administration — marked by abrupt military leadership changes and politicized decision-making — raises a deeper concern: the erosion of institutional independence. When professional judgment is replaced by loyalty tests, and expertise is sidelined for optics, even established democracies begin to mirror the fragility seen in states where institutions serve personalities rather than principles. This isn’t about partisanship; it’s about governance maturity. - Strong institutions safeguard continuity, accountability, and strategic clarity. - Weak institutions amplify volatility, short-termism, and internal distrust. The parallels with nations that have struggled to balance civil and military authority are instructive. History reminds us that when political expediency overrides professional counsel, the cost is borne not only by the armed forces but by the credibility of the state itself. --- 📌 Call to Reflection In times of global uncertainty, the measure of leadership lies not in dominance but in discipline — the ability to listen to expertise, respect dissent, and preserve institutional integrity. 👉 Let’s discuss: How can democracies safeguard professional independence amid political turbulence? --- #Leadership #Governance #CivilMilitaryRelations #InstitutionalIntegrity #GlobalSecurity #StrategicClarity #LinkedInThoughtLeadership ---