European Security & Defence’s Post

I could not agree more with Cedric de Coning and Kristin Bergtora Sandvik ‘s analysis and conclusions. A narrow focus on defence spending does not reflect the reality and complexity of the current security landscape.

Excited to have contributed my thoughts on Trump's recent trip to Asia for this Foreign Policy Research Institute expert commentary. I ask, "Is homeland defense inhibiting America’s Asia strategy?" As President Trump returns from his Asia trip, there’s no shortage of headline achievements—new trade deals in Southeast Asia, allied investments from Japan and South Korea, and a temporary cooling of tensions with China. Yet U.S. strategy in Asia still lacks focus and coherence. Since the election, many expected the rise of “Prioritizers”—officials seeking to reorient U.S. strategy toward Asia and away from Europe and the Middle East. But instead, the administration’s center of gravity has become homeland defense: militarizing the southern border, expanding operations in the Caribbean, and launching the expensive “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative. This shift is constraining U.S. Asia policy on three fronts: Operational capacity – Key assets like the USS Gerald R. Ford and other naval assets are being diverted to the Western Hemisphere. Resources – Homeland defense spending crowds out funding for Indo-Pacific deterrence. Strategic attention – The next National Security Strategy is expected to formalize this inward turn. If Washington wants a real Asia strategy—one built around a coherent theory of victory—it must move beyond transactional diplomacy and toward a disciplined, well-resourced, long-term approach to the region. Read below! https://lnkd.in/e3KJfkb2

South Korea is recalibrating its alliance with the US, agreeing to greater defense spending and cooperation while pursuing more autonomy, hedging between Washington and Beijing. Seoul is expanding defense capabilities, pressing for wartime operational control transfer, and leveraging shipbuilding cooperation to secure both deterrence and independence. https://lnkd.in/dZGVigsS

🇺🇸➡️🇵🇱 From Washington to Warsaw: Can the Knudsen Act save NATO’s supply chains? As Europe scrambles to boost its defence production, one proposal out of Washington could quietly reshape the entire transatlantic industrial base. Senators Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance want a commission that would map America’s defence supply chain end-to-end — from propellants to critical minerals — and ensure industry can scale when it’s needed most. Why this matters for Europe: - Predictable US demand means stable contracts for NATO allies. - Eastern Europe could become a long-term production hub, not just a crisis buffer. - The Balkans and Central Europe could see new opportunities if coordination finally improves. Read the full analysis on AdriaDefense: 👉 From Washington to Warsaw: https://lnkd.in/eXafVhyE #NATO #DefenseIndustry #USDefense #Europe #IndustrialBase #SupplyChains #DefensePolicy #AdriaDefense #Balkans #CentralEurope

NEW: European defence unicorns eye Taiwan For the last three years Europe’s defence ecosystem has had all eyes on Ukraine. But some of the biggest names are increasingly looking eastwards to another country fraught with geopolitical tensions. Helsing, Quantum Systems and Tekever are all increasing their presence in Taiwan, where they’re inking partnerships and appearing at defence shows. Speaking at a product launch in September, Helsing founder Torsten Reil said: “the threat that is coming from the east is imminent [...] we have to feel a sense of urgency.” VCs hawkish about China may be pushing companies to expand to Taiwan in case tensions escalate, while public perception of the war in Ukraine recedes into the background, says Elke Schwarz, a professor at Queen Mary University who specialises in military AI. She advises caution, however: “Selling to Taiwan would come at potentially huge political and diplomatic costs for Europe.” With Freya Pratty, link in comments 👇

MILITARY POLITICS IN A DEGRADING SECURITY ENVIRONMENT – NATO IN THE NORDICS This panel on the SJMS/NDUC conference was organized by the working group on military politics, chaired by Thomas Crosbie from the Royal Danish Defence College (Forsvarsakademiet). First, Thomas Crosbie and Christoph Harig from the Royal Danish Defence College presented a paper on the need for better civil-military cooperation in the future operating environment, studying the professional competencies underlying CMR and CIMIC-approaches, arguing for a new approach, built on set of identified basic competences. Carsten F. Rønnfeldt from Forsvarets høgskole (FHS) presented a study of the effects of Norwegian military professional norms in international operations, arguing for a small-state’s orientation of civil-military relations, differentiated from the standard approaches, deeply influenced by American military and political culture. Jeffrey M. Reilley discussed new developments within military intelligence technology, among others open-source intelligence (OSINT) and how the sharing of intelligence across national borders impact and relate to the ongoing shifts in political alliances.  

The possibility of Chinese military action in Taiwan is a topic of increasing concern, particularly when considering the next five years. Discussions with individuals in China reveal a more assertive stance, raising some anxieties. Even a limited air and sea blockade could pose significant challenges to the U.S. economy, especially concerning the chip industry. Investors should closely monitor geopolitical developments and consider diversifying their portfolios to mitigate potential risks. One should prepare accordingly in case of a potential crisis. #geopolitics #ChinaTaiwan #investmentstrategy #riskmanagement #globalsecurity #economicoutlook

🔎 New Intelligence Product: The Africa Corps Our latest briefing note explores how Russia’s Africa Corps functions as a tool of the Russian state to solidify the Kremlin’s influence and provide an alternative military presence to that of Western powers. The analysis examines the Africa Corps’ military activities and influence campaigns, alongside the impact of its presence on regional stability. Key implications: ⚠️Narrative influence: The spread of anti-Western narratives risks further eroding relationships between African and Western nations, and may lead to greater rejection of Western-aligned assistance. ⚠️Governance risks: Russian backing for juntas entrenches authoritarian control, undermines regional stability, and weakens rule of law. ⚠️Economic impact: Involvement in illicit economic activity and resource exploitation risks destabilizing local economies and fuels corruption. 📘Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/eTDz3ZVj

More US military investment in Asia has escalated tensions and isn’t necessary for U.S. or allied interests, DEFP Director of Military Analysis Jennifer Kavanagh writes in a new piece for the Lowy Institute. https://lnkd.in/eMzmaDMd