Tami Cornwell

CNBC recently reported that there may be millions of “ghost jobs,” based on the 2.2M gap between job openings and hires. The gap is real (it's based on BLS data), but the interpretation is up for debate. They cite analysis from "My Perfect Resume", and they draw the conclusion that ANY gap represents a "ghost job". Some other considerations: 1. They measure openings and hires at different times. If a company posts a job in September, makes the hire in November, and the new hire starts in December, we have 3 openings but 1 hire. In other words, even if 100% of jobs that were posted were filled, we would see a discrepancy unless every role is filled (with butt in seat) in the same month it was posted. 2. The longer it takes to fill a role, the greater this gap will appear to be. Roles are taking longer to fill - I know that doesn't seem intuitive in this market, but the reality is that those who are looking for work may not align well with the roles companies are trying to hire in terms of skills, location, etc. Layer on top of that, that companies are hiring fewer people and being more selective. They would rather hold out 4 months for the right person than take a risk on a stretch hire in 2 months. This means openings are being counted for many months before a hire is recorded. 3. Openings are self-reported by companies, and most economists say it's the least reliable metric in the JOLTS report. There IS a definition, but it's kind of fuzzy and there's no audit. There's not necessarily a posting that would represent a "fake job" to an applicant. Let's just consider jobs posted on LinkedIn: we see 3.8M jobs posted in the US. Not all employers post here, but about ~75% of recruiters use LinkedIn so this might suggest a total of ~5M job postings. If 30% of all job postings were truly fake, we’d expect to see far fewer than ~5M hires per month happening in the labor market. None of this changes the fact that: - people in certain fields are really struggling in this job market - that there's real misalignment between what jobs openings and the skills, interests, and locations of the workforce - that many people are underemployed - that many companies are unrealistic in the bar they're holding - that many companies have crappy hiring processes. - that many companies But none of that means that employers are intentionally posting fake jobs en masse. I think that nuance is important. I think it impacts how people approach their job search. If you believe every company is out to get you and 30% of jobs are fake, you may engage in an adversarial way or try to "game the system" (with mass appliers, fake resumes, etc.). If you believe companies are hiring in good faith but being extremely picky, you're more likely to be thoughtful about what jobs you apply for, take steps to stand out, and show up as the best possible candidate. And one of those strategies leads to much better results for applicants than the other.

43

30 Comments

We had the privilege of hosting Quentin Clark — our board member and Managing Director at General Catalyst — during our recent leadership offsite at Eightfold’s headquarters in Santa Clara. Every moment of this session was filled with profound insights — the kind that make you pause and rethink assumptions. I tried to capture a few, though I’ll admit that taking notes while being genuinely awestruck is not easy! What are the three ills to ward off as companies grow: 1. Companies can get complacent. Current success can hinder future success. A very counterintuitive point: If you exceed the expectation and beat the plan, still be curious. “It still betrays!”.  2. Lowering the hiring bar. B-players hire C-players.  3. Not protecting the brand. What makes Eightfold such a hot prospect?  1. Eightfold was the first one to figure out how to apply ML for solving enterprise business problems - 9 years ago. A huge head start and a moat.  2. Eightfold is building a System of Agents in a world still stuck with Systems of Record. Traditional enterprise software makes you work — you have to pedal. Agentic AI flips that model: the system works for you. It’s a driverless engine, like Waymo.  3. AI used to be an unproven tech a few yrs ago, almost like selling snake oil. Today the AI tailwind is very real and Eightfold is in a position to build on the success rapidly. With so much money invested in AI, will there be a good ROI?  AI is bigger than the Mobile revolution, the Internet, and even the Mainframe era. It surpasses Integrated Circuits in its reach. Think about it — everyone today carries at least five IC-powered devices: a smartphone, a smartwatch, a health ring, earbuds, and often a laptop or tablet. AI will be an even more integral part of our personal and work lives. It took databases seven years to achieve a 10X leap in performance. Large Language Models did it in just three quarters. The acceleration curve of AI isn’t evolutionary — it’s exponential.   What about humans in an Agentic-AI world? Far from diminishing the value of people, Agentic AI raises it. As agents take on the repetitive, administrative, and mechanical tasks, humans are freed to focus on what only they can do — creating, problem-solving, and innovating. In this world, the regard for talent actually increases, because the leverage of each person is amplified. 

48

What’s Next for Talent Acquisition? Insights from the Community The response to my last post about the TA job market was interesting to say the least. The comments, messages, and discussions have reinforced that we’re in a critical moment for recruitment professionals. A big thank you to those who engaged with the post. Here are some key themes that emerged. Make of them what you will, I for one am confident that the market will open up again this year: 🔹 TA’s Shrinking Footprint – Many highlighted how TA has been one of the hardest-hit functions in layoffs, especially in tech. Some estimate that over 100,000 recruiters are out of work, and many are pivoting to adjacent roles like customer success, HR business partnering, or sales. 🔹 Boom and Bust Fatigue – The recruitment cycle has always been volatile, but many professionals are now questioning whether the highs justify the lows. Some are leaving TA entirely, seeking more stability in other sectors. 🔹 The Shift Toward Talent Strategy – With AI and recruitment automation reducing the need for sourcing specialists, the real value of TA now lies in strategic talent partnership—helping businesses define "what good looks like" and securing the right talent in competitive markets. 🔹 Cost Center vs. Profit Center – TA has always been seen as a cost rather than a revenue driver, making it an easy target for cuts. Many companies are relying on hiring freezes and junior recruiters to manage high applicant volumes rather than investing in experienced talent professionals. 🔹 Fractional and Contract Work on the Rise – A growing number of TA professionals are embracing fractional roles, consulting, and fixed-term contracts as companies opt for more flexible hiring models. 🔹 What’s Next? Some see the downturn as part of a natural cycle (we’ve been here before—2008, 2020, 2022), while others worry that the TA function is being permanently diminished. So, where does that leave us? Will TA professionals find new ways to prove their value, or will companies continue to sideline recruitment functions until the next hiring boom? I’d love to hear your thoughts—how are you adapting to the shifts in the TA market? What’s your outlook for the next 12 months? #TalentAcquisition #Recruitment #HR #HiringTrends #JobMarket

120

24 Comments

SOME MAY DISAGREE, but If you were part of the Amazon layoffs, please don’t spend too long on LinkedIn today. Take a breath. Step away. You don’t owe anyone productivity right now. When you’re ready, I’ve got open-source career development guides and resources linked on my profile. They’re free, practical, and created with folks like you in mind. And please hear me on this: It wasn’t your fault. People often blame themselves after layoffs, but this isn’t about your performance or worth. It’s corporate theater. You helped make Amazon what it is. You worked long hours, solved hard problems, and probably missed time with the people you love. You're what allowed Jeff Bezos to buy a superyacht. Companies may have forgotten loyalty, but that doesn’t mean you should forget your own worth. Now Amazon’s PR team will talk about “AI efficiency” or “return-to-office realignment,” but let’s be real: this was about shaping a narrative before Thursday’s annual shareholder report. The same company that’s still wildly profitable wanted to reassure investors after Q2’s “dip.” So no, it’s not you. It’s them. Take the weekend off. The job search can wait.

118

15 Comments

What's going on with the market? As a recruiter I’m often asked what I’m seeing. What I am seeing is not good. I appreciated this Bay Area news summary of ongoing tech layoffs where “nobody is safe”: https://lnkd.in/gZvC9Mv2. While better than last year, times are still tough. * Meta is closing three offices in Fremont, and Block (formerly Square) is laying off 240 California employees, for example. * Veteran tech analyst Rob Enderle calls current conditions of A.I. and tariffs “the perfect storm” hitting the tech market. Here’s the not so bad news: tech boom and bust cycles have always happened, and the Bay Area has always recovered. As SJ State engineering professor Prof. Ahmed Banafa notes, “We have seen it in the 2000s, 2008; we have it after the pandemic; we have seen how many people lost their jobs — thousands and thousands of people because nobody knows the future.” But he also says, “I know the future is here, I know technology is here, the next invention, the next ground zero for technology is here in Silicon Valley, but you have to be patient, you have to be ready.” What to do? Experts advise workers to learn relevant skills for the latest technology. “You have to be part of that technology because nobody is safe,” Banafa said. I agree. Lawyers are often seen as a cost center, so be ready to show your value and pick up new skills.

43

2 Comments

👀 Spoke with a candidate yesterday who is actively job hunting, and he pointed out that we are seeing more and more companies consolidating two or three roles into one. It’s often a cost-saving move, which is understandable. But even top talent can only do so much. Spreading someone too thin usually means they deliver just okay results across multiple areas, rather than excelling in one. 💭 Efficiency matters, but so does setting realistic expectations. Is anyone else seeing this trend? #recruitment #hiringtrends #ITJobs #jobsearch

165

41 Comments

A lot of AI tools in recruiting (seriously—how many more sourcing and interview bots do we need?) promise to “give recruiters capacity back to be more strategic.” Few actually focus on how to make recruiters more strategic. On my team, we’ve been testing GPTs that change the search strategy conversation with hiring managers: An AI Hiring Strategist GPT (inspired by Jason Miller’s SDI tool - seriously, follow this guy and Joe Atkinson ASAP): turns job descriptions into hiring signals and market maps. Instead of guessing, we can see who has been and is hiring the talent we want. It also scores each JD, showing what priorities we’re signaling to the market and how that compares to companies hiring for similar roles. In 5–10 minutes, you get a target list of 30 companies that have been hiring your ideal candidate profile over the past year. A Strategic Employer Value Index (SEVI) GPT: benchmarks how candidates perceive your company, using public sources. The criteria are fixed, but the weighting (based on research) shifts by persona (role, level, etc.), producing an overall score and a comparison against any company so we know where we have leverage and where we don’t. Imagine walking into a kickoff with target companies mapped, perception scored, and a clear plan for how we’ll win talent. That’s the shift: from tactical (“let’s finalize a JD and interview plan”) to strategic (“here’s how we compete”). That’s recruiting with an AI-powered edge. And the best part: these GPTs are shareable among my team and they don’t require exposing any PII or confidential data as we arent on an Enterprise plan. Feel free to reach out and I'll share the GPT instructions for each. Jenna Kalman Chris Trivisonno Denisse Gallegos,PHR,SHRM-CP Kelly Villaescusa Kavitha Anandan Sam McDuffee

75

25 Comments