CNBC recently reported that there may be millions of “ghost jobs,” based on the 2.2M gap between job openings and hires. The gap is real (it's based on BLS data), but the interpretation is up for debate. They cite analysis from "My Perfect Resume", and they draw the conclusion that ANY gap represents a "ghost job". Some other considerations: 1. They measure openings and hires at different times. If a company posts a job in September, makes the hire in November, and the new hire starts in December, we have 3 openings but 1 hire. In other words, even if 100% of jobs that were posted were filled, we would see a discrepancy unless every role is filled (with butt in seat) in the same month it was posted. 2. The longer it takes to fill a role, the greater this gap will appear to be. Roles are taking longer to fill - I know that doesn't seem intuitive in this market, but the reality is that those who are looking for work may not align well with the roles companies are trying to hire in terms of skills, location, etc. Layer on top of that, that companies are hiring fewer people and being more selective. They would rather hold out 4 months for the right person than take a risk on a stretch hire in 2 months. This means openings are being counted for many months before a hire is recorded. 3. Openings are self-reported by companies, and most economists say it's the least reliable metric in the JOLTS report. There IS a definition, but it's kind of fuzzy and there's no audit. There's not necessarily a posting that would represent a "fake job" to an applicant. Let's just consider jobs posted on LinkedIn: we see 3.8M jobs posted in the US. Not all employers post here, but about ~75% of recruiters use LinkedIn so this might suggest a total of ~5M job postings. If 30% of all job postings were truly fake, we’d expect to see far fewer than ~5M hires per month happening in the labor market. None of this changes the fact that: - people in certain fields are really struggling in this job market - that there's real misalignment between what jobs openings and the skills, interests, and locations of the workforce - that many people are underemployed - that many companies are unrealistic in the bar they're holding - that many companies have crappy hiring processes. - that many companies But none of that means that employers are intentionally posting fake jobs en masse. I think that nuance is important. I think it impacts how people approach their job search. If you believe every company is out to get you and 30% of jobs are fake, you may engage in an adversarial way or try to "game the system" (with mass appliers, fake resumes, etc.). If you believe companies are hiring in good faith but being extremely picky, you're more likely to be thoughtful about what jobs you apply for, take steps to stand out, and show up as the best possible candidate. And one of those strategies leads to much better results for applicants than the other.
Problems with hiring: ATS is not regulated enough to provide total transparency to applicants. Resumes are an antiquated and inadequate method to hire for technically specific roles. Cultural constructs ARE used to decide which candidate is hired. I see dozens of jobs reposted persistently, and I know there are thousands of people who are well qualified for those jobs, so if they’re not being hired, it is a clear indication of unfair hiring practices or the advertisement of a role which is not actually available. If a company is not going to hire someone within 30 days, there should be a legal penalty paid for posting a false advertisement. Platforms like LinkedIn should not allow employers to repost jobs when itself can determine there are thousands of qualified applicants who have applied for them. The third job interview I ever had in my entire life was a few weeks ago and the feedback I got was absolutely unequivocally bogus because it was relative to my PRECISE SPECIALIZATION, and not even the subject of the interview, and not even mentioned. The notion that there are dozens of platforms that applicants have to use to apply for jobs, that have absolutely no common format, is in itself complete nonsense.
Bonnie Dilber --- Thank you for this post, and for sharing the various nuances and concepts involved. You state, "The gap is real (it's based on BLS data), but the interpretation is up for debate." I think this is a key point, how the data is gathered, categorized, and measured. For example, when comparing the "pay gap" between women and men, when we use the "mean," comparing all men to all women, we find the infamous 20% gap in pay, but when we compare equal jobs / equal hours that gap reduces to somewhere between 0% and 2%. Again, thanks for the post and for giving is much to think about.
The thing that really gets me is the jobs LinkedIn seems to direct me to are ones I see posted again and again. I can't absolutely confirm they're "ghost jobs," but it's always the same companies (not even sure if they're legit; I've Googled and seen a few slammed on Reddit) posting the same positions, and a lot do seem suss. I just wish LinkedIn's algorithm didn't seem to literally position towards bad UX. I follow the advice: I research companies and apply on job sites, and I even installed a plugin to block some of these companies. But it's a huge disservice and a black mark on LinkedIn itself as far as I'm concerned wrt to these constant reposted jobs that may or may not be real.
How are they determining the number of open jobs? I may have missed that part in the article. If company A posts a job on their careers site but also distributes to other job boards, are they counting that as 1 job or does that look like 5 jobs because it’s on zip recruiter, LinkedIn, Glassdoor, and indeed as well? Also, some companies use crowdsource recruiting like Reflik. If 30 people are working on one requisition and they all post the job, does that then make it look like 30 jobs vs. the one opening? I’ve never been asked to post a ghost job and don’t know anyone in my circle of recruiting friends who have. I’m not ignorant to the fact that it may happen, but don’t believe it’s as large of an issue as perceived.