Robert Slaughter

Just finished listening to a fascinating episode of Top Traders Unplugged featuring Bob Elliott, Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen — and it was one of the most thoughtful macro conversations I’ve heard in a while. Key takeaways: 📉 We may be transitioning from a credit-driven boom to an income-driven expansion — which changes how the economy responds to rates, inflation, and policy shocks. 🛠️ Structural forces like tariffs, reshoring, and labor market tightening (from immigration curbs) could fuel long-term inflation and wage growth — but also compress corporate margins and challenge traditional portfolios. 📉 The classic 60/40 portfolio? Likely to underperform in this environment. Alternatives like global macro, gold, and diversified alpha strategies are not just complementary — they may be essential. 📉 Strong GDP ≠ Strong Equity Returns. Like in the 1970s, we could see robust economic growth with poor real market returns. 🌍 And for global allocators: A strategic shift away from US assets may already be underway, as foreign equities begin to look more attractive from a local currency perspective. 🔁 Highly recommend giving this a listen if you think about macro, asset allocation, or portfolio construction. You can find the episode here: https://lnkd.in/dJiTUZD4 #Macro #Investing #GlobalMarkets #PortfolioConstruction #TopTradersUnplugged #Alternatives #FixedIncome #Equities #GlobalMacro

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We just released Episode #78 of the DTS Podcast. I don’t post every episode here on LinkedIn, but we’ve now built up a solid library of short, practical trading discussions, and this newest one focuses on two topics that are often misunderstood: Diversification and Leverage. Both topics sound simple on the surface, but traders often misuse them, overcomplicate them, or apply them in ways that do not really solve the problem they think they are solving. This episode is a practical discussion about what diversification is trying to accomplish, why there are different goals when diversifying, and why leverage is often much simpler than traders make it. You can find the DTS Podcast page here: https://lnkd.in/ex5J-pfX We’re currently up to Episode #78, and the podcast is also available on most major podcast platforms

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Sam Hempel, Julia Shephard and I combed through a decade of annual reports from over 150 dealers and banks to put together a comprehensive picture of the U.S. repo market. We found the size of the market was $12 trillion in 2024, far larger than previous estimates which used figures after balance sheet netting or looked at a subset of firms or markets. Full FEDS note here: https://lnkd.in/ewqK22n5

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Probably not a revelation to scientists, but it really made me think when I asked ChatGPT what could happen to the quality of information if the ratio of synthetic to human-authored material were to increase drastically in the datasets used to train AI. Here’s part of the response: “If models indiscriminately train on everything generated during conversations — including user-generated summaries, drafts, speculations, or even errors — over time the training pool would become increasingly ‘model-generated,’ leading to what researchers call model collapse. This happens when future models are trained on outputs of previous models: the data distribution drifts, factual grounding erodes, and the model begins reinforcing its own patterns (including mistakes).” Are we the generation experiencing the peak quality of AI — a moment when models are still grounded in abundant original human knowledge?

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PivotalPath and its CEO, Jon Caplis, recently hosted BlackRock’s Jeff Shen, Man Group's David Kingsley and Numerai’s Rich Allen to discuss the evolution of the hedge fund Multi-Strat model. It was an insight rich and data-led conversation that took-in how allocators currently view the hedge fund sector’s most innovative group of managers, as well as the space’s future. Key takeaways included:   ◾ Allocators are still engaging with the space, with 2025 seeing positive flows – a number are even looking to add a second or third Multi-Strat and are happy to pay pass throughs for steady and uncorrelated cash-plus returns of between 300-500bps but… ◾ ...they are also concerned that as the space utilizes longer lock-ups, more illiquid sleeves and pursues external investments (where 100% transparency is not guaranteed) it needs to think carefully about the interplay between increasing capacity and an ongoing commitment to good risk management and market neutrality ◾ Multi-Strats only used to correlate to each other, we’re now seeing a marked correlation to the S&P 500 – this could leave many exposed if there is a market pullback ◾ Allocators now prize a more solutions-orientated mindset – they are looking for bespoke Multi-Strat approaches capable of sympathetically blending with a specific portfolio gap or providing a portable alpha solution ◾ Lastly, the Multi-Strat space is now vital to the wider hedge fund ecosystem – not only has it become the largest allocator via external investments, but PivotalPath data shows that ~40% of new manages have previously worked at a Multi-Strat   Join our conversation by watching the full webinar on PivotalPath’s free Index App. Register today: https://lnkd.in/esqf2A-j

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Fixed Income at CFA Level I has a way of humbling even the smartest candidates. Duration looks friendly… until it isn’t. Bond valuation feels straightforward… until exam day pressure kicks in. Instead of us telling you why our lessons work, here’s someone who actually went through them. TrulyTanishka recently shared her honest review of AnalystPrep’s CFA Level I Fixed Income class, including how mock questions are solved and explained. No scripts. No corporate polish. Just a real perspective. Watch it here: https://lnkd.in/g3YMFZpr And if you’re evaluating prep options, you can explore the full course here: https://lnkd.in/gQ3XCVgs If you’re preparing for Level I, this might help you decide your next move. #CFALevel1 #CFAprep #FixedIncome

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Jay Pestrichelli joins Cboe to discuss how the new YieldMax® Performance & Distribution Target 25™ ETFs target a 25% annualized distribution while maintaining participation in underlying stock performance. $MSST YieldMax® MSTR Performance & Distribution Target 25™ ETF $NVIT YieldMax® NVDA Performance & Distribution Target 25™ ETF $TEST YieldMax® TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25™ ETF #MSTR #NVDA #TSLA

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How can investors gauge real AI potential versus hype? As technology stocks continue to rise, some investors are questioning whether the excitement is justified. Bernstein portfolio managers share their perspectives on how to evaluate the true impact of AI on the market. Read their insights here.

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Barron's newsletter editor Josh Schafer explains how a viral Substack post driving stocks lower shows how investors are feeling increasingly uneasy about AI disruption.

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Most wealth managers understand equities. At Summitry, we find far fewer understand equity compensation. The difference can potentially cost you millions. For Bay Area tech professionals, equity compensation is often the single largest driver of long-term wealth. It's also the area where we believe generalist advisors most often fall short. Our latest on what separates a firm seasoned in equity comp from one that treats it as an afterthought, plus the questions to ask before you hire one. https://hubs.ly/Q04gHK7B0

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Bloomberg recently highlighted OptionMetrics data and insights from Head Quant Garrett DeSimone, Ph.D., in its coverage of market volatility ahead of the Fed’s rate decision and the triple-witching options expiry. “History shows that during emergency cuts, intraday returns are usually positive, but medium-term returns often turn negative, since markets interpret the cuts as a signal of rapid economic deterioration,” DeSimone noted. Syndicated across Yahoo Finance (Canada & UK), MSN, and Indexbot, the article showcases OptionMetrics’ trusted role in providing institutional-grade options and volatility data to markets worldwide. Read the full article below. https://lnkd.in/eX8EcMkd #OptionMetrics #MarketVolatility #TradingInsights #FinancialData

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From Rittenhouse Research： Perhaps even more notable than Anthropic's $44B ARR figure is the reported 70% gross margins on inference. If you do some back of the napkin math and assume: - 75% of total rev. comes from AWS, GCP marketplaces for which Anthropic pays 25% rev. share ($8.25B total rev. share costs) - 2.5GW of total compute at $12B per GW ($30B total), with $13.2B on inference (to back into 70% gross margins) and $16.8B on training - 5,000 FTEs at $0.75MM in annual compensation per head ($3.75B total) - $1B of other OpEx (e.g. marketing, office rent, finance, legal etc.) ... Then total run-rate COGS + OpEx is $43B, implying $1B of EBITDA.

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T. Rowe Price's Ritu Vohora, CFA: Charting a course for yield amid fiscal shifts. Many bond investors are wading into the new year having largely avoided 2025’s rip currents. Check out Ritu Vohora, CFA’s latest article 👇 https://incm.pub/4juMa65 #investment #wealthmanagement #assetmanagement #finance

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Share buybacks are one of the most persistent and underexploited flow signals in equity markets. Yet most research teams are still tracking them manually, stitching together 8-K filings, press releases, and quarterly repurchase tables by hand. That process is slow, inconsistent, and hard to scale. We built a better way. With the Bigdata.com MCP connector for Claude and the Financial Research Analyst Skill, your analysts can generate a structured buyback intelligence report from a single prompt: "I want a report on buyback announcements and events at US companies over the last two months. I want to get dates, the amount specified in the filing, and the reason given by the company." The attached PDF is the output - structured, sourced, and ready for a PM meeting. This is what becomes possible when you connect Claude to the Bigdata MCP. SEC filings, press releases, and earnings transcripts - unified into a research-grade workflow in minutes.

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