Johann Tse 謝右安

What’s Happening. A View From The Castle®. Remember when we were worried about China's population growth and large, inexpensive workforce??? China has over 40% of the world's industrial robots and is creating over 50% of all new ones, transforming manufacturing efficiency. "You're my castle, you're my cabin, and my instant pleasure dome"... New home sales skyrocketed 20.5% in August to a three-year high, the largest one-month gain since August 2022. [finish the lyric for 20 bonus points] "Oh, everybody deceives me"... The SEC and FINRA are investigating unusual stock spikes in 200 companies before they announced they were adopting corporate crypto-treasury strategies; such scrutiny is a likely prelude to insider-trading probes. For the love of... Circle, the world’s second-largest stablecoin issuer, is weighing reversible transactions to combat fraud and hacks, raising debate over balancing user protection with crypto’s core principle of final, irreversible, and decentralized payments. “Hello, I’m Johnny Cash"... CFTC Acting Chair Pham launched an initiative to allow tokenized collateral, including money market funds and stablecoins, in the $700 trillion derivatives market, signaling rulemaking that could transform margin practices and collateral eligibility. “Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all"... Investment Grade credit spreads (75 BPs) are at their tightest level since 1998, and High Yield credit spreads (270 BPs) are at their tightest level since 2007, indicating extreme risk-appetite for debt. A canary in an ABS mine??? Tricolor Holdings, a Texas-based subprime auto lender, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy after allegedly pledging collateral to multiple lenders, leaving investors exposed in its risky ABS deals and shaking confidence in auto credit markets. Too funny!!! "Decentralized" exchange Aster, promoted by Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, briefly surpassed Hyperliquid with $29.5 billion in daily perpetual trading volume, but critics argue that it is not even decentralized since its execution lacks validators, consensus, and blockchain infrastructure. "Riders on the storm"... According to Jeff Diehl, Managing Partner of Adam Street Partners, an asset manager with over $60 billion of AUM that invests in other managers’ PE funds, 10-25% of portfolio companies acquired by PE buyout funds between 2016 and 2022 will be total write-offs. “When I see a bubble forming, I rush in to buy, adding fuel to the fire. That is not irrational, it’s how I make money"... Tether, issuer of the USDT stablecoin, is seeking to raise $15–$20 billion (selling ~3%, implying a $550 billion valuation) via private placement - which would place it near SpaceX and OpenAI, and far ahead of Circle’s $30 billion valuation. [40 bonus points if you can identify the quote (hint: he's in the news)] #investmentbanking #technology #corporatecurrency #homecrowdadvantage #privateequity #venturecapital #castleplacement #cpgoapp

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1956: Started an oil company with $2,500.  1983: Made $500M buying oil companies.  Boon Pickens’ million-dollar M&A playbook👇 In the early 1950s, T. Boone Pickens worked as a geologist for Phillips Petroleum. He hated corporate life. Inefficiency and bureaucracy frustrated him. Then he saw an opportunity that most oil companies ignored.  Small oil fields were profitable yet overlooked by the big players. With a $2,500 loan and 2 partners, he cofounded Mesa Petroleum in Amarillo, Texas. Pickens became CEO and acquired undervalued oil and gas assets. Using new geological techniques to find oil where others failed. Soon, Mesa became one of the largest independent oil companies in the U.S. But returns were diminishing for oil exploration.  So, he pivoted. New strategy: Takeover 1. Target a bloated oil major 2. Accumulate significant stake 3. Publicly criticize management 4. Demand asset sales, or dividends. 5. Force a sale, breakup, or exit at a premium His first attempt was the Cities Service Company. Stake: ~5%  Outcome: Mesa exits at a profit, no acquisition Next play was bigger, targeting Gulf Oil (one of America’s top six oil firms) He partnered with Drexel Burnham Lambert to finance the bid using junk bonds. Gulf Oil was taken over for $13.2B. Pickens walked away with $500M in profit. The same move was repeated with: • General American Oil • Phillips Petroleum • Unocal Pickens' strategy permanently changed shareholder activism, board accountability, and M&A pressure tactics. He popularized the idea that shareholders own the company. That still drives takeovers today….

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Mega VC Firms are becoming new American Institutions. Universities, media corporations, and big banks dominated the 20th century. They were seen as core pillars of America. Trusted. Important. Critical. Andreessen Horowitz raising a $15B fund, was 18% of VC dollars raised in 2025. Several other funds raised over $5B including General Catalyst and Lightspeed. But this isn't about a few large new funds or a small moment in time. It's a phase shift. These firms are becoming core American Institutions for years to come. They are supporting new company creation, job opportunities, policy changes, early stage R&D, and are huge drivers of economic growth across a broad range of industries. These firms are funding what government may have just supported decades ago. But opening up opportunities for way more people. VC is no longer a niche industry. It's starting to play a critical role for the future of America.

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The most valuable thing my pitch ever did had nothing to do with raising money.                                                                                   I've watched founders pour months into their deck, obsessing over the narrative, the market size slide, the traction graph, and then treat it like a fundraising artifact. They open it for investor meetings and close it when the round ends.                                                                 But your pitch is doing other work...or...it should be. 🔹 Recruiting: Strong operators want to know whether you know where you're going. Your pitch answers that before you even make an offer. 🔹 Sales: Your customers never see the deck, but they feel the thinking behind it. When you can't explain why this matters in a tight narrative, your prospects can't explain it internally either. 🔹 Partnerships: Strategic partners don't need your financial model. They need to know if your direction makes sense and whether yours and theirs point the same way. 🔹 Getting in rooms: Some founders are in rooms without ever being there because someone knew exactly how to describe them. The founders who get talked about have one thing in common: they're clear. Not polished. Clear. 🔹 Your own thinking: This one is underrated. Forcing your company into a coherent narrative reveals the gaps. Which assumptions are actually holding? Where is the logic fuzzy? You should be asking that, not just investors. This all matters even more when the VC path isn't realistic or isn't right. Your pitch has to work across angels, customers, community capital, accelerators, and partners. Not just one audience. A pitch isn't proof of worth. It's proof of thought. Build it that way, and it works for you long before and long after the raise. --- Every Friday, 4K+ founders, investors, and ecosystem partners get something like this in their inbox. 👉 https://lnkd.in/ebtUDKE2

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©️ Stanford Recommends. Trump Praises. The World Watches: PIF Emerges as a Global Model I’ve been closely watching Saudi Arabia’s PIF — and I have to say, it’s reshaping global markets. Stanford University says the U.S. should emulate it. Trump’s a fan. But I keep asking myself: Can America, stuck in its own gridlock, really pull this off? 🔹 In a world racing to define the next economic era, one player stands out: Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF). Stanford recommends emulating it. Trump calls it “an inspiration.” Global markets are paying attention. But here’s the real question: Can the U.S. truly replicate Saudi Arabia’s bold economic revolution? 🔸 In my view: No. Not because the vision is flawed, but because the structure that enabled PIF’s success is fundamentally absent in the U.S. system. Why Replication Fails: 1️⃣ Centralized Vision vs. Federal Fragmentation PIF is anchored in unified leadership under the Council of Economic and Development Affairs, with coordination from the Strategic Affairs Council. Meanwhile, Obamacare took years to pass and was later rolled back. A sovereign fund would face even greater resistance. 2️⃣ Long-Term Strategy vs. Shifting Cycles 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 aligns institutions under one roadmap. 🇺🇸 The U.S. rewrites its playbook every 4 years. Even Silicon Valley operates despite—not because of—federal strategy. 3️⃣ Surpluses vs. Structural Deficits 📊 PIF manages $930B and targets $2T. 📉 The U.S. runs a $1.9T deficit in 2025. TARP triggered backlash. A sovereign fund today? Even harder. 4️⃣ Agility vs. Gridlock Saudi Arabia restructured fast. The U.S. Infrastructure Bill crawled through years of diluted compromise. 5️⃣ Credibility Through Reform PIF followed a sweeping anti-corruption campaign. U.S. oversight remains fragmented and politically vulnerable. 6️⃣ Future-Driven Investment PIF leads global markets — $20B in renewables, stakes in Lucid, Disney, Blackstone. U.S. public investment lags behind private firms, constrained by short-term politics. 7️⃣ Tangible Impact vs. Delayed Progress PIF builds communities and jobs. In the U.S., bold projects stall in endless debate. ✨ The Bottom Line: PIF is not just a fund — it’s an engine for transformation. The U.S. may admire it, but replicating it? Unlikely. 💡 My Perspective I believe the U.S. can still create something greater — not by mirroring another model, but by designing one rooted in its own realities, challenges, and strengths. A model powered by strategic private alliances — linking Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and state-level execution — and structured to operate with the agility and independence needed to move beyond traditional bureaucratic and legislative constraints. #PIF #SaudiVision2030 #Stanford #Trump #SovereignFunds #Geoeconomics #USDeficit #SiliconValley #FutureOfFinance #EconomicLeadership #Management #Innovation

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If AI could teach you one skill in venture capital instantly, what would it be? Would you want it to spot the next unicorn before anyone else? Analyze deals in seconds instead of weeks? Or build a track record that impresses LPs from day one? AI isn’t just about speed. It’s about leveling the playing field, helping emerging managers and new LPs learn the ropes faster and smarter. Imagine compressing years of trial and error into a few clicks. We’re building tools that bring this closer to reality every day. The question is not if AI can help you learn VC skills, it’s which skill would you want it to teach first. What’s your pick?

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A neighbor invited young Steve Jobs into his garage. He pulled out an old rock tumbler ↳ just a metal can with a motor. "Gather some ordinary stones," he said. They threw regular rocks into the can, added liquid and gritty powder, then switched it on. The machine made a terrible racket all night. Metal against stone. Stone against stone. Loud and relentless. The next morning, the man opened the can and reached inside. Out came smooth, polished stones ↳ glowing, finished, transformed. Jobs said that image stuck with him his whole life. Here's what he learned: Great teams don't come from harmony. They come from honest tension held with trust. The best work happens when people: ↳ Bump up against each other ↳ Challenge ideas freely   ↳ Throw unpolished thoughts into the mix ↳ Know the process will refine them Disagreement isn't the end of relationships. It's the beginning of something better. The question isn't whether your team has friction. The question is whether you've built a container strong enough to hold it. Polish only comes from collision. What kind of "rock tumbler" culture are you building with your team? ♻️ Repost if this resonates with your leadership experience ➕ Follow me for more insights on building exceptional teams

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what happens when China pours $723B into R&D? the world’s innovation map begins to shift.   China's R&D investment exploded from 4% to 26% of global spending in just 23 years.   that’s a staggering 550% jump reaching $723 billion.   the gap with the US? now just $61 billion.   that kind of capital doesn’t just buy innovation.    it’s rewriting the rules.    what do these new rules mean for business leaders?   the emergence of new markets:    → Chinese firms triple revenue by capitalizing on trade tensions  → IT manufacturing aims for 85% automation by 2025  → self-reliance in semiconductors, AI, and batteries accelerating  → 100+ specialized service providers launching by 2027   the strategic focus areas:    → AI integration across manufacturing  → advanced semiconductor development → digital transformation at scale  → global expansion through partnerships   the true impact is already visible:    → Chinese EV makers targeting 10% international sales  → digital signature companies seeing 300% growth  → IT sector generating 31.4% revenue internationally   here’s the twist:   trade tensions are no longer slowing China down.   they're accelerating its global expansion.   and with the U.S.-China R&D gap down to $61B…   the innovation race is heating up FAST.   want sharp, no-fluff insights like this every week?   🗼 join thousands of forward-thinking leaders getting weekly intelligence on AI breakthroughs and global tech shifts. Subscribe to Lighthouse (link in comments!).

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“In recent decades, only a handful of government interventions have been widely regarded as successes. Operation Warp Speed is one of them. So is the CHIPS Act, the $39 billion program that catalyzed a massive investment boom in manufacturing semiconductors on American soil… …In the years between 2007 and 2020, annual domestic construction spending in computers, electronics, and electrical manufacturing averaged $3.3 billion. After the program was authorized in 2020, and in the nearly five years since, it’s averaged $71.8 billion per year. That’s nearly twenty times higher.” https://lnkd.in/examw8ju

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The 2030s will be a graveyard for Fortune 500 companies. AI-native startups, tokenized capital structures, and humanoid robots are accelerating faster than most legacy firms can adapt. What we’re witnessing isn’t just disruption—it’s replacement. In this week’s video, I explore: • Why many incumbents won’t survive the next decade • How tokenized AI startups may never go public • The coming breakdown of labor, income, and meaning • What Meta’s superintelligence push reveals about the AI arms race • Why Ethereum and stablecoins are powering the future of finance • And why Vinod Khosla believes this is all happening faster than expected This isn’t a trend. It’s a regime shift. Watch here: https://lnkd.in/e4XG3-2q

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I am a China hawk. We have over three decades of experience that the "engagement" strategy has failed to incorporate China into a liberal rules-based order. Instead, China uses the liberality of the free world to undermine its institutions and engage in massive rule breaking, predatory economics and outright theft. I think the free world is a big enough economy to be able to decouple of autocratic regimes, and should do so to the maximum extend possible, always holding out the hand of friendship for countries that reform themselves. Morgan Stanley disagrees with me. From a recent research report: "China's investability has incrementally improved over time, with new technologies and new business models attracting the most attention among investors: Investors are particularly interested in ideas associated with the New Consumption theme as well as AI/Technology related themes. Investors in general admit that many of them have overlooked/spent much less time covering China since 2021/2022, which had resulted in limited knowledge of the latest technological breakthrough on the tech and smart manufacturing fronts, as well as on a number of new consumer brands that have gained extensive market share and traction during the same period." They recommend increased investment in China. It is perfectly legal, but it is strategically dumb. Recommendations: -- take China stocks out of all financial instrument indices. This would be bigger than tariffs as a stick to force China to conform to international norms of good behavior. -- Instead of tariffs on Chinese goods, put a 100% tariff on US capital investment in China, and a 50% corporate tax on their Chinese profits. -- prevent Chinese companies from listing on any US exchange or any international exchange controlled by a US corporations. Let's stop subsidizing Chinese cost of capital. -- 100% capital tax on Chinese investment in the US. Including companies and real estate. -- 100% tax on interest paid to China by any US entity, including treasury bonds. -- continue to admit Chinese students to US universities, but only with a 100% tax on their tuition, rebate of their tuition tax if they renounce their Chinese citizenship and become US citizens. Admit no members or family members of the CCP and monitoring all their communications until they become US citizens. I welcome feedback on these. Some have interesting implications. Francois Trahan, M²SD #decoupling #china National Security Council, The White House U.S. Department of the Treasury #tariffs Macroeconomics Trivium China J. Scott Christian William Collins #china Shannon Brandao Liza Tobin Edo　慧人 NAITO　内藤 #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity Dr. Alicia H. Lili Pike David Barboza Lingling Wei Diana Choyleva Frank Tsai David O. Shullman Shirley Ze Yu Andrew Collier Gerard DiPippo Oxford China Policy Lab China Policy

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China has started to strictly control the export of powerful magnets that are used in electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, electronics, and defense equipment. These magnets are made from rare earth materials like neodymium, and China produces nearly 90% of the world's supply. For many years, other countries depended on China for these magnets because they were cheap and easily available. But recently, China has changed its approach. They introduced new rules that make it harder to export these magnets. Now, companies need special government approval and must reveal where and how the magnets will be used. There are several reasons behind this move. First, China wants to use its control over magnets as a tool of power in global politics. Second, it wants to reduce pollution from mining by controlling production. Third, instead of just selling raw materials, China wants foreign companies to set up factories in China, so more value and jobs stay within the country. Finally, with growing demand for EVs and defense equipment in China itself, the government wants to keep enough supply for its own industries. For India, this could cause serious problems. Indian EV companies like Tata Motors, Ola Electric, Ather, and Bajaj Auto depend on imported magnets for their vehicles. If magnets become harder to get or more expensive, it could lead to production delays, higher prices, and slow down India’s progress in the EV sector. In short, China’s new export rules show that whoever controls these small but powerful magnets also holds major power over the future of clean energy, transport, and technology. The Valuation School #Automobilesector #Autoindustry #electricvehicle

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In 1997, NVIDIA was six weeks from bankruptcy. What happened next created trillions in value. Huang gathered his engineers with an ultimatum: one production run, one shot at the RIVA 128, and if it failed, they were done. "One tape-out," he told them. No budget for fixes. No second chances. This constraint led to three radical decisions: 1. They Flipped the Entire Process Everyone else: Design hardware. Build software. Test. Find bugs. Spend millions on respins. NVIDIA asked: What if we're doing this backwards? They built the software first, then tested on massive emulators that acted like the final chip. By tape-out, the software already knew the hardware. The RIVA 128 worked on the first try. In 1997, that was like landing a rocket backwards. Theoretically possible, but nobody had done it before. Lessons to learn: LegacyCo builds in secret, then presents. NewCo builds live systems from day one. The deliverable isn't PowerPoint; it's a system that delivers impact. 2. Missions More Important Than Managers LegacyCo runs on human leverage: managers managing managers managing teams. Everyone reporting up. Layers of coordination slicing every task like an assembly line. NVIDIA abandoned that model. Strike teams led by technical "pilots" who could walk into Huang's office anytime. No permission needed. Today Huang has 60+ direct reports. When everyone can reach the top, nobody hides in the middle. Lessons to learn: Your best people are buried under three management layers, waiting for approval. NewCo gives them P&L ownership and says "deliver this outcome." Who moves faster? 3. They Killed Meetings with Five Sentences Every company knows the ritual. Weekly status meetings where everyone performs productivity. PowerPoints polished. Bad news buried. Hours wasted. NVIDIA's answer: Write five things. What you did this week. Huang reads 100+ of these daily. Direct signals, not filtered summaries. Lessons to learn: Stop the theatre. Demand substance. Five bullets covering what moved forward and what's blocked. Your teams spend hours creating decks about work instead of doing work. End it. This engine works. But at what cost? When AMD tried to buy NVIDIA​, Jensen had one condition: he runs the combined company. The deal died. That's the level of conviction this system demands. NVIDIA employees describe it as "high-stress and gruelling."​ The pace is relentless. The pressure intense. You probably can't replicate that. You probably shouldn't. But here's what you can steal: Speed isn't about working harder; it's about removing what slows you down. Every approval layer. Every status meeting. Every sequential process. Professional services stands at its own tape-out moment. Start by killing your next status meeting. NVIDIA faced extinction and built an engine that now powers the future. Most firms face disruption and create...another committee. The engine is there to be built. The only question is who builds it.

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