General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.)

US Government Accountability Office Report to Congress on Actions Needed to Address Risks Posed by Dependence on Foreign Suppliers https://lnkd.in/gxG6HJzg

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2026 HONOLULU DEFENSE FORUM REPORT FINDINGS on the following topics: - The tyranny of distance & geographic reality. - Scale wins. - The changing character of warfare. - Logistics is combat power. - Integration of data & AI will prevail. - Alliances as center of gravity. - Acquisition and production speed. - Energy infrastructure is a critical vulnerability. - Cyber threats are pervasive and growing. - Commercial alignment and incentives. - Economic resilience, energy security & information as core elements of deterrence. RECOMMENDATIONS ON: - Deterrence, posture, presence & combat credibility. - Operational resilience and theater sustainment. - Information advantage, AI & cyber resilience. - Industrial base & production capacity. - Allied industrial integration & technology cooperation. - Whole-of-government integration & economic statecraft. - Acquisition reform & public-private integration. - Workforce & talent. Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/deQMX6Vv Cc: Pacific Forum, Kimberly L.

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Munich’s Real Message: THE WEST MUST RE-INDUSTRIALIZE At the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a speech that cut straight to the core of today’s geopolitical reality. For decades, the West followed a policy that effectively de-industrialized its own economies. Factories were closed. Manufacturing was outsourced. Strategic supply chains moved overseas. It was presented as efficiency and globalization. But in reality it created dependence. Today the consequences are visible everywhere: • fragile supply chains • shortages of critical components • weakened defense manufacturing • strategic reliance on geopolitical competitors Meanwhile countries like China built massive industrial capacity while the West shifted toward finance and services. Rubio’s message was blunt: America is not interested in being the “polite caretaker of the West’s managed decline.” The implication is clear. Economic strength is national security. The next decade will likely be defined by: • rebuilding manufacturing • securing supply chains • restoring industrial capacity • strengthening Western technological leadership For business leaders, investors, and manufacturers, this is more than politics. It is a structural shift in the global economy. The question now is simple: Will the West continue managing decline — or start rebuilding its industrial foundation https://lnkd.in/eXxqkQzg #Reshoring #Reindustrialization #Manufacturing #MAGATECHLLC

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I am excited to be part of this panel. I’ll be bringing a practitioner’s perspective to this conversation. 72 months deployed across Iraq and Afghanistan, commanding the National Ground Intelligence Center, and running intelligence operations for all of Special Operations in Afghanistan. A few things I’ll be focused on: The massive global economic reposturing underway is generating second and third order effects showing up directly in the grey zone. Supply chain dependencies, shifting trade relationships, economic leverage as coercion. These shifts create new seams - and adversaries are already moving into them. Our indications and warning frameworks were built for a world that concealed its intent. That world is gone. Messaging is direct and unfiltered now, but direct doesn’t mean transparent. You’re still doing pattern analysis, just in public spaces at a pace those frameworks were never designed for. And we need to remember: the adversary always has a plan. When we knock them off it, they adapt and try to get back on track. Disruption is not defeat. They’re a living organization and they will reconstitute. The question I keep coming back to: the problem was never a shortage of intelligence. It was getting the right people to a shared understanding fast enough to act. That gap is where adversaries operate. See you soon. Annette Torrisi, PMP Lynn Schnurr Annette Redmond Jacob Jendrey JB Burton General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.) Andrew Evans Terri Borras Dustin Shultz Tracy L. Lanier Traci Goodwin Wendy Wayman Heather Karambelas Ellen McCarthy Vincent Brooks Stephen M. Twitty Ruth Bellerive Yvette Hopkins Yvette Nonte Ana G. David Tohn Paul Becker Paul Norwood Jay Bienlien Jason Chung Jay McGuire Barbara Fast Karen Briggman Randal Dragon Jonathan Baba Jonathan Freeman David W. Morrison Tim Faulkner

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Dispatches From Munich Security Conference with General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.) In Response to: 16 February 2026: Thoughts during the flight home from Munich: https://lnkd.in/gezB_A9M General, Thank you for these timely and sobering reflections from Munich. Your framing of adaptation, autonomy, and the return of hard power captures what many of us operating at the intersection of #nationalsecurity, #cyber, and #emergingtechnology are sensing daily: the security environment is no longer theoretical, and the margin for strategic complacency has effectively disappeared. The point that resonated most deeply was your observation that we are no longer debating strain on the international order — but who will shape its adaptation. That distinction matters. It signals a shift from reactive posture to competitive statecraft, where speed of institutional learning may prove as decisive as force structure. On transatlantic recalibration — I agree this feels less like rupture and more like maturation. Alliances forged in the 20th century are being stress-tested by 21st-century realities: distributed threats, contested supply chains, cyber persistence, and AI-enabled decision velocity. Capability alignment — not just political alignment — will define alliance credibility moving forward. Your emphasis on industrial capacity as deterrence is particularly critical. In cyber and AI domains, we often speak of “compute, code, and talent” as the new arsenals. But as Munich highlighted, the physical layer still matters — munitions, logistics, shipyards, energy resilience. The democracies that synchronize digital innovation with industrial production will hold the strategic edge. The “multipolarity without guardrails” insight is equally sobering. What we’re witnessing is competition across every domain simultaneously — kinetic, cyber, economic, informational, and orbital. The gray zone is no longer gray; it is the operating environment. From a leadership standpoint, this moment demands three shifts: • From deterrence by declaration → deterrence by demonstrable capability • From technological adoption → technological integration at scale • From alliance symbolism → alliance interoperability Your closing question is the right one: Will democratic nations adapt faster than the challenges they face? History suggests they can — but only when urgency translates into resourcing, policy alignment, and industrial mobilization. Appreciate your continued leadership in elevating these strategic conversations. The realism coming out of Munich is necessary — and, candidly, overdue. Very Respectfully, -bz

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Taiwan has become the most dangerous flashpoint in U.S.-China relations — and the world. A new Defense Priorities explainer series shows that a U.S. war for Taiwan would be extraordinarily difficult and America would likely have to fight it alone. Lyle Goldstein offers three things to know. For more, see these two papers from our "Target Taiwan" series: "Challenges for a U.S. Intervention": https://lnkd.in/eUsbPz6R "Limits of Allied Support": https://lnkd.in/eEBnu52j

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SOUTH CHINA SEA, PHILIPPINES DEFENSE - Philippine Watercraft Operations in the South China Sea - OYSTER BAY - With upcoming upgrades to naval bases facing the South China Sea, Manila is set to expand its reach into the disputed littorals off Palawan via the deployment of Marine Corps and Naval Special Operations Group watercraft.  - Satellite imagery and Philippine Navy public releases show at least four of the Patrol Craft Coastals at Naval Detachment Oyster Bay. This strategic naval base regularly sorties resupply runs for its South China Sea outposts. This site is slated to receive an American-funded facility dedicated to maintaining and repairing Philippine small boats and unmanned surface vessels. - Another American-funded maintenance facility is also set to be constructed in Southern Palawan in the Municipality of Quezon. Additionally, Washington’s funding at this location supports the construction of a barracks facility for personnel and limited operations. From these two sites, the Philippines will enhance its ability to project Philippine Marine Corps and Naval Special Operations Group watercraft into contested areas. Alongside existing Philippine small boats, both facilities will host U.S.-provided fast boats and assault boats from American shipbuilder Reconcraft. - The Philippine Marine Corps has also examined concepts to refocus their riverine watercraft for littoral missions. Last summer the force stood up its first Maritime Security Battalion, a formation dedicated to enhance Marine Corps capabilities amid “increasing external threats and border disputes.” This unit was deployed to Tawi-Tawi, placing the unit on a strategic maritime chokepoint in the country’s southwest. - https://lnkd.in/enxQ-vhP

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Expert analysis and focus areas on China and how the PLA leverages military engagement with foreign policy. The Institute for National Strategic Studies and its Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs' Dr. Phil Saunders work contributes to this.

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According to Barak Ravid, citing a CIA official, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with Cuban Minister of Interior Lazaro Alvarez Casas and the head of Cuban intelligence, and discussed economic and security issues. However, per the report from Ravid, such cooperation will only be possible if Cuba makes a serious effort to deter U.S. adversaries from using Cuba as a springboard for U.S. adversaries, such as Russia and China. https://lnkd.in/gYj9uxKr

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Ending PDAC 2026 with even MORE great news... United States Antimony Corporation (NYSE: UAMY) has been awarded $27M in Defense Production Act Title III funding to advance the domestic extraction, processing, and refinement of antimony — a critical mineral essential to US National and Economic security. Funded through the Additional Ukraine Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2022, this investment supports the Trump Administration’s priority to strengthen American mineral independence, as outlined in Executive Order 14241, "Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production". Under the Trump Administration, increasing domestic critical mineral production remains a strategic objective. This funding enables UAMY to modernize and expand its refining and production capacity in Thompson Falls, Montana, reinforcing supply chains that support the Defense Industrial Base — including munitions and military electronics — as well as Domestic Manufacturing applications such as flame retardants and batteries. It will also accelerate UAMY's antimony excavation and extraction efforts in Alaska. As the only fully integrated antimony producer outside of Russia and China, UAMY continues to strengthen its 100% domestic, vertically integrated model — delivering strategic resilience where it matters most. #Mining #Minerals #criticalminerals #UAMY #USAC #sb #ag #au #ni #zn #w #co #mg #supplychain #energyindependence #dow #dod #renewableenergy #solarpower #firefighting #military #defense #firstresponders #antimony #stibnite #gold #silver #nickel #zing #tungsten #cobalt #mangesium #congress #senate #PDAC #PDAC2026 Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) https://lnkd.in/e4GTENGS

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One emerging technology that could greatly benefit CBRN defense is artificial intelligence, which played a key role in Operation Midnight Hammer, said William King, a senior fellow and principal/director at Booz Allen Hamilton and chairman of NDIA’s CBRN Defense Division. “Open source intelligence attributes the mission success to a cohesive AI infrastructure,” King said at the conference. “Decision cycles, traditionally measured in hours and days, were compressed into minutes,” with the fusion of different sensors and data sources allowing operators to “algorithmically prioritize targets and select penetration vectors.” Operation Midnight Hammer was a demonstration of how distributed AI can be used to execute missions in contested domains, “using the technology to enable human action faster, more efficient, more effective,” he said. AI can similarly be a “mission multiplier” for CBRN defense, King said. “If AI can fuse and orchestrate 125 assets across multiple warfighting domains for nuclear target suppression, it can equally coordinate chemical sensor data, radiological plume tracking, bioagent dispersion modeling and casualty telemetry to enable real-time exposure forecasting and adaptive logistics.” “This is not a theoretical statement. If we could do all of this, we can do what we've been talking about in this community for decades,” he said. “Technology is not the limiting factor as it has been. Today, the limiting factor is our ability to think, our ability to imagine the use of this technology to do the mission.”

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The intelligence community’s findings broadly align with the observations of Trita Parsi. Both [UAE and Bahrain] fear that if Washington reaches a deal with Tehran, they will be left to contend with what they see as a more dangerous Iran without firm U.S. backing. “This is part of the tremendous strategic insanity that the UAE and Bahrain engaged in by signing on to the Abraham Accords in the first place,” Parsi told Capital & Empire. “They made themselves frontline states against Iran. Now they’re in too deep and cannot extract themselves from it.” https://lnkd.in/e8z4ZJKC

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Congress has released the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), introducing expanded restrictions on U.S. outbound investment into China—particularly in sectors tied to military, intelligence, and surveillance capabilities. The legislation effectively codifies the Treasury Department’s January 2025 outbound investment rule, while giving regulators broader authority to expand covered sectors and investigate non-notified transactions. As our Managing Director H.K. Park who leads Crumpton Global’s national security and outbound investment screening practice, notes: “The NDAA language codifies the existing Treasury rule, but with a few more teeth. The new language authorizes the Treasury to add more sectors in the future and empowers it to investigate transactions where investors failed to notify.” With U.S.–China relations increasingly volatile, these developments elevate not only regulatory risk, but reputational and competitive exposure for institutional investors and multinational firms. We are actively helping clients prepare for evolving federal, state, activist, and commercial pressures—and to stress-test their China exposure under multiple policy scenarios. Full article via Chief Investment Officer: https://lnkd.in/ePb8Ma6S #Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #OutboundInvestment #China #RegulatoryRisk #NDAA #InstitutionalInvestors

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While the US Dept of War seeks to on-shore rare earth sourcing and processing to eliminate dependence on China from US supply chains, some that are critical for jets, drones and missiles only come from China. https://lnkd.in/eFXnTsky

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China Signals Zero Tolerance for Disloyalty Within Senior Military Leadership China has delivered one of its strongest public political warnings in years regarding loyalty inside the military establishment, following harsh corruption sentences against former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu. According to commentary published in the PLA Daily, the punishments demonstrate that the Chinese Communist Party will not tolerate divided loyalties or ideological disobedience within the armed forces. The editorial is particularly significant because it reportedly marks the first time an official Chinese outlet publicly characterized Li Shangfu as disloyal to the party. Both former officials were recently given suspended death sentences after being convicted on corruption-related charges. The penalties are among the harshest imposed on senior People's Liberation Army leaders since President Xi Jinping launched his sweeping anti-corruption campaign in 2012. The PLA Daily commentary emphasized that “the military wields the gun and there must be no one who harbours disloyalty to the party,” reinforcing the long-standing principle that the Chinese military ultimately serves the Communist Party rather than operating as an independent national institution. Analysts view the messaging as part of a broader effort by Xi Jinping to consolidate political control over the military during a period of heightened geopolitical tension, rapid military modernization, and growing focus on readiness for potential regional conflict scenarios, including Taiwan contingencies. The anti-corruption campaign has removed numerous senior military officials over the past decade, but the public framing of these cases increasingly extends beyond financial misconduct into ideological reliability and political loyalty. This suggests Beijing views internal cohesion and centralized authority as critical components of national security and military effectiveness. Key Takeaways for the material include China’s intensified emphasis on political loyalty within the armed forces, the continued expansion of Xi Jinping’s control over military institutions, and the use of anti-corruption enforcement as both a governance and strategic discipline mechanism. The broader implications extend into regional security and military modernization. As China expands its global military capabilities and strategic ambitions, the Communist Party appears determined to ensure that technological advancement and operational power remain tightly aligned with centralized political control and ideological discipline. I share daily insights with tens of thousands followers across defense, tech, and policy. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

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Iran’s Seizure of Chinese Security Vessel Signals Strategic Control Over the Strait of Hormuz Iran’s seizure of a vessel operated by a Chinese maritime security company near the Strait of Hormuz is being interpreted as a calculated geopolitical signal demonstrating that even close strategic partners remain subject to Tehran’s control over one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. According to reports, the ship belonged to Sinoguards Marine Security and was impounded by Iranian authorities on the same day President Donald Trump began summit meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. Iran reportedly remains a central issue in ongoing U.S.-China discussions, particularly concerning energy security, regional stability, and pressure campaigns tied to ceasefire and diplomatic negotiations. The incident is significant because it reportedly marks the first known seizure of a private maritime security vessel since the escalation of conflict involving Iran and the United States. Analysts cited in the article suggest Tehran may be deliberately differentiating between commercial shipping and armed or security-related operations. Iran had reportedly allowed certain Chinese commercial tankers to transit the strait shortly beforehand while simultaneously detaining the security vessel. The message appears carefully calibrated. By permitting Chinese energy shipments while detaining a Chinese-linked security asset, Iran may be signaling that economic cooperation with Beijing does not translate into unrestricted military or security activity inside Iranian-influenced waters. The move reinforces Tehran’s longstanding position that it maintains ultimate authority over maritime security dynamics in the region. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically sensitive waterways, handling a major percentage of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows. Any disruption, military escalation, or uncertainty involving the corridor can rapidly impact global energy prices, shipping insurance markets, military deployments, and broader geopolitical stability. Key Takeaways are that maritime control and energy transit are increasingly being used as instruments of geopolitical leverage. Iran’s actions demonstrate how regional powers can apply selective pressure even against major economic partners such as China while reinforcing sovereignty, deterrence signaling, and influence over critical global trade routes. I share daily insights with tens of thousands followers across defense, tech, and policy. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

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Analysts Warn Iran Conflict Could Reshape Global Extremist Threat Landscape A new analysis published by Foreign Policy warns that escalating conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel could trigger a major transformation in global extremist dynamics, potentially leading to a more decentralized and unpredictable wave of Shiite militancy. The article argues that the weakening or collapse of Iran’s centralized religious and military leadership structure could fragment long-standing command-and-control relationships between Tehran and its regional proxy organizations. For decades, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and senior clerical leadership have exercised varying degrees of coordination, restraint, and strategic guidance over affiliated groups including Hezbollah, Iraqi Shiite militias, and the Houthis in Yemen. According to the analysis, targeted strikes against Iranian leadership — including the reported killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — could destabilize these centralized networks. While degrading command structures may weaken state coordination, it could also create more autonomous militant actors operating with less restraint, reduced strategic discipline, and increasingly localized agendas. The authors compare the potential outcome to the fragmentation seen after leadership disruptions within Sunni extremist movements during the global war on terrorism. Rather than eliminating extremism outright, leadership decapitation campaigns sometimes contributed to splinter groups, decentralized radicalization, and less predictable forms of violence. The article further notes that escalating regional conflict could intensify sectarian narratives, mobilize transnational ideological support networks, and create new recruitment dynamics among militant organizations across the Middle East and beyond. Much would depend on the duration of the conflict, the stability of Iranian state institutions, and the responses of regional actors. Key Takeaways for the material include the strategic risks associated with destabilizing centralized militant command structures, the potential for decentralized extremist movements to emerge from regional conflict, and the growing complexity of modern proxy warfare environments. The broader implications extend into global counterterrorism strategy and geopolitical stability. Security planners increasingly recognize that dismantling centralized state-backed militant networks does not always eliminate ideological movements and can sometimes generate more fragmented, adaptive, and difficult-to-control security threats across multiple regions simultaneously. I share daily insights with tens of thousands followers across defense, tech, and policy. Keith King https://lnkd.in/gHPvUttw

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