The Cipher Brief

This Memorial Day, The Cipher Brief is sharing the stories of Americans who quietly answered a call after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Some served as humanitarian volunteers. Others returned to war alongside Ukrainian forces. Many were among America’s most experienced veterans. Some paid with their lives. What emerges in this deeply personal essay is not politics - but conscience, sacrifice, grief, and an uncomfortable truth about the cost of defending freedom in the modern era. “The quiet professionals ask for almost nothing except our support.” A powerful and sobering read from Dr. Douglas Davis and Col. Sam Hartwell (Ret.). https://lnkd.in/gNw3eUpu Suzanne Kelly

Just a reminder to those of you who are actively working in the national security space: Applications to attend this year’s Cipher Brief Threat Conference (October 25-28) are now being accepted. This event will sell out. How do I know? Because attendance is capped every year at just 250 guests to allow for robust networking opportunities with other leaders in the national security community. Who attends?  In addition to government speakers, The Cipher Brief welcomes executives from the world’s leading tech companies, national security-focused investors, family offices, senior teams from promising start ups addressing national security challenges and a deep bench of seasoned national security experts (it's likely that your organization's biggest competitors have already secured their seats, too). What should I expect? Come prepared to engage in robust tabletop exercises, fireside chats, keynote addresses and conversations that don’t drone on (see what we did there) but get right to the point on issues ranging from shifting geopolitics, drone defense, intelligence challenges, adversary activities and AI solutions being implemented at scale. Apply now for your best opportunity to secure a seat at the table. Where do I apply?  So glad you asked. www.tcbconference.com See you in October.

When a Charismatic and a Machiavellian Meet -- As Presidents Trump and Xi prepare to meet in Beijing, two experts examine the psychology, power instincts, and risks shaping one of the world’s most consequential relationships. https://lnkd.in/g_D6xin7

The threats are converging faster than government alone can respond. At last year’s Threat Conference, leaders from across intelligence, cyber, cloud, AI, defense technology, and national security made one thing clear: the old lanes no longer exist. AI is changing offense and defense. Gray zone conflict is already underway. Cognitive warfare is targeting trust and decision-making. Ukraine is rewriting the future of conflict. China is setting conditions inside critical infrastructure. Digital authoritarianism is spreading. And the private sector is no longer optional — it is part of the national security operating environment. The “before times” are ending. That is why The Cipher Brief Threat Conference exists: to bring the people who understand the convergence into the room before the next crisis arrives. Join us this fall for a look around the corner — at the threats, technologies, and decisions that will shape 2027 and beyond. Learn more about how you or your organization can attend at: www.tcbconference.com. Sandra Joyce Yvette Cesario Dave Pitts Rear Admiral (Ret) Mark Montgomery Major General (Ret) @Ryan Heritage Jennifer Ewbank

CIA Losses in Mexico: The Hidden Risks Behind U.S. Intelligence Missions The reported deaths of two CIA officers in Mexico have sparked questions, sharp reactions, and widespread speculation. But what really happened - and what does it reveal about how U.S. intelligence operates in one of the world’s most complex threat environments? In this in-depth conversation, Cipher Brief CEO Suzanne Kelly speaks with Ralph Goff, a six-time CIA station chief, who brings rare, firsthand insight into the realities of intelligence operations, the risks officers face, and the truth behind the headlines. Goff explains why the loss of intelligence officers - often far from traditional war zones - remains an enduring reality of the job. He also breaks down how the CIA works with foreign partners, why operations in Mexico are uniquely dangerous, and how missions continue even after tragedy strikes. This conversation also pulls back the curtain on how intelligence operations are actually authorized and conducted - dispelling Hollywood myths about rogue agents and revealing the legal, political, and operational constraints that govern every move. In this conversation: - What the deaths of two CIA officers likely tell us about the mission in Mexico - The real risks of operating against cartels and in contested intelligence environments - How the CIA works with foreign governments - and why that matters - The difference between myth and reality in covert operations - Why most early reporting on intelligence incidents is often wrong - What life is really like for CIA operations officers on the ground At its core, this is a sobering look at the human cost of intelligence work - and the professionals who operate in the shadows to protect U.S. national security. Check out the full conversation right here: https://lnkd.in/e5PyWHVd For more expert-driven national security analysis, subscribe to The Cipher Brief and never miss critical insights from those who’ve lived it.

Access is power - and increasingly, it’s a vulnerability. Former U.S. Army Judge Advocate Officer Geoffrey Corn explains how sensitive information can be exploited in new ways - from insider misuse to betting markets that reveal intent without ever exposing classified material. The laws haven’t caught up - but the risks are growing.

Forty years after Chernobyl, the most enduring lesson isn’t about nuclear energy - it’s about the cost of deception. In 1986, a reactor exploded and a system built on secrecy compounded the disaster. The instinct to conceal, distort, and deny didn’t just worsen the crisis - it accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union. Today, that same pattern echoes in modern Russia. From Chernobyl to Ukraine, the through line is clear: when leaders reward loyalty over truth, systems fail - often catastrophically. At Chernobyl, critical design flaws were hidden. Operators followed orders in a rigid chain of command, prioritizing approval over safety. The result: a disaster measured not just in radiation, but in human lives and institutional collapse. Fast forward to today, and similar dynamics are visible in Russia’s war in Ukraine. Intelligence shaped to fit expectations. Decisions made on distorted realities. Consequences measured in massive human and strategic costs. As the HBO series Chernobyl put it: “Every lie incurs a debt to the truth.” That debt doesn’t disappear. It compounds - until it’s paid. For national security leaders, policymakers, and analysts, the takeaway is urgent: Systems that suppress truth don’t just miscalculate - they eventually break. Read the latest analysis by Sean Wiswesser only on TCB: https://lnkd.in/ebG_9vnu #NationalSecurity #Russia #Ukraine #Chernobyl #Intelligence #Geopolitics #Leadership #RiskAnalysis #CipherBrief

I'm looking forward to this Vanderbilt University Institute of National Security session as well as all of the other expert-level conversations taking place over the next two days in Nashville, led by General Paul M. Nakasone. Expertise matters so much and it's an honor to be onstage with this group in particular. (The last time I saw Frederick Kagan was when he and Kimberly Kagan and Brad Christian and I were on the train leaving Ukraine with General David H. Petraeus, US Army (Ret.). If you're not already following the excellent work that Fred and Kim and their team are doing at the Institute for the Study of War - you're missing a big piece of the puzzle.) Predicting the future of national security is hard but I'm incredibly interested in what you think. Comment or DM me.