Keith Fitzgerald

Beyond Declarations: Options for ASEAN in the face of Trump Tariffs Without prejudice of individual ASEAN Member State's strategy and negotiating ositions, it is worth pondering in greater details what ASEAN can do more, if not colelctively then at least in a coordinated manner at the individual level. In his latest policy brief, Yose Rizal Damuri of Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Indonesia, looks into a possible common framework for ASEAN in the negotiation with the US (link below) even as countries pursue bilateral negotiations. Meanwhile, this is an excellent piece from Pak Iman Pambagyo, former Indonesian DG of International Trade Negotiation (and RCEP TNC Chair) and Ambassador to the WTO, on how ASEAN can adapt and take leadership in the reconfiguration of globalisation. Read here: https://lnkd.in/gbb2ejfj #Trump #tariffs #reciprocaltariffs #trade #opentrade #US #ASEAN #ASEANEconomicCommunity #ASEAN2025 #Malaysia #Indonesia #rulesbased #southeastasia #regionalism #ASEANCentrality #coordination #strategy #globalization #regionalism #multipolarity #supplychains #globalsupplychains #negotiations #diversification #regionalintegration https://lnkd.in/gM9hfCvW

57

1 Comment

🚨 New Publication – My Analysis in the South China Morning Post SCMP I was pleased to contribute expert commentary to Jeoffrey Maitem’s article: “Why Lockheed Martin’s Philippine R&D hub will be on China’s radar” (SCMP, 18 August 2025). 👉 You can read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/esJY3mTX In my analysis, I highlighted several key points: 🗣️ “This directly supports [Manila’s] Self-Reliant Defence Posture Revitalisation Act, which is about reducing dependence on foreign suppliers by building domestic industrial and technical capacity.” 🗣️ I described the initiative as “classic soft-power engagement: deepening relationships through knowledge transfer, workforce training and integration into allied innovation networks.” 🗣️ Yet, “those same capabilities have clear defence applications—giving the Philippines more control over the readiness and modernisation of its fleet.” 🗣️ While carefully framed in developmental and civilian terms, the strategic outcome is clear: “It’s a softer route to hard-power gains.” 🗣️ Importantly, “even if the F-16 deal does not materialise, the infrastructure and expertise developed through the Lockheed Martin partnership would position Manila to more effectively integrate future advanced or dual-use systems, embedding the Philippines deeper within allied defence innovation networks.” 🗣️ There is also a resilience dimension: “Linking defence modernisation with civilian innovation capacity reduces the vulnerabilities that come from over-reliance on a single external supplier.”  🗣️But this will not go unnoticed in Beijing: “The facility deepens US-Philippine defence-industrial integration, which Beijing will likely read as part of a broader US strategy to lock in partnerships in the Indo-Pacific,” potentially provoking “sharper reactions from China – through diplomatic pressure, economic measures or heightened military activity near Philippine-claimed waters.” 🗣️ Looking ahead: “This combination of capability growth, alliance depth and industrial autonomy will make the Philippines a more credible security partner. The trade-off is that it may also intensify strategic frictions with China.” #IndoPacific #Philippines #USPhilippines #SouthChinaSea #Geopolitics #SecurityStudies #DefencePolicy #USChinaRelations #ForeignPolicy #AlliancePolitics #China #InternationalRelations #MaritimeDisputes

45

2 Comments

✂️ 🦀 Are You, or Are You Not, Handing Over the Localisation Keys? 🔑 ❗ I just walked off stage at #AIDEX2025 in Geneva, where local and national CSO leaders spoke hard truths about system transformation. Indonesia's transition from UN-led HCT to CSO co-led humanitarian coordination looks like a localization poster boy. But here's what keeps me up at night: It is heading to a sinkhole!! May be, just may be, we can avert the failure - if we deliberately and quickly line up for local CSOs the necessary authority, humanitarian capacities and capabilities, the procedures, and the funding. Without which, what are we transferring? An empty paper bag? Along that line, I posed uncomfortable truths we need to face: 1) Stop the patronizing. Local CSOs aren't your proteges—we're community leaders who've weathered every crisis long before the international presence and after they packed up and left. If you still see us as "capacity building" projects, you're part of the problem. 2) Localization isn't a gift you bestow from above. While you debate frameworks in your boardrooms, local leaders are already organizing, innovating, and mobilizing. This isn't about power transfer—it's about recognizing power that already exists and the emerging ones. 3) Donors: Yes, it's messy. Dealing with thousands of local CSOs is inconvenient compared to writing one large check to the so-called Intermediaries. But transformation isn't convenient. Are you brave enough to speak directly to us the locals, and experiment with local pooled funds, or just brave enough to say that there is a problem? 4) INGOs and "nationalized" NGOs: Define your role or become irrelevant. The question isn't whether to stay engaged—it's whether you're willing to fundamentally reimagine what engagement looks like when you're no longer the protagonist. 5) My fellow local and national CSOs: Be careful what you wish for. Localization without proper preparation is a poisoned chalice—we'll own the responsibility but not the means to deliver. I called upon Tom Fletcher , the Inter-Agency Steering Committee, and @theGrandBargain to document the Indonesian transition process—as a case study in what NOT to do—so other countries don't repeat these mistakes in their transitions. And how we can rectify the process quickly right now. #LocalizationReality #HumanitarianReform #LocalCSOs #SystemTransformation #AidEffectiveness #CommunityLedDevelopment #AIDEX2025

194

20 Comments

🌊 At #UNOC3, SPC Director-General Dr. Stuart Minchin met with 🇹🇻 Tuvalu Prime Minister, Hon. Feleti Penitala Teo, OBE, to champion data-driven #ClimateResilience. 🛰️ A major highlight was the handover of a world-class sea level rise modelling tool, empowering #Tuvalu with cutting-edge science to adapt to the climate crisis. 💡This is Pacific-led innovation at work, turning satellite data into real-world solutions for our islands.

89

1 Comment