Sertaç Oruç, PhD

The paper concerns the measurement and forecasting of technological change, a topic relevant to many high-tech organizations and their customers. We revisit recent and classic datasets from technology forecasting data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) research and technometrics in light of a new visualization technique known as t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE). The technique is a nonlinear visualization technique for preserving local structure in high-dimensional spaces of data… Meer weergeven

The paper concerns the measurement and forecasting of technological change, a topic relevant to many high-tech organizations and their customers. We revisit recent and classic datasets from technology forecasting data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) research and technometrics in light of a new visualization technique known as t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE). The technique is a nonlinear visualization technique for preserving local structure in high-dimensional spaces of data. The technique may be classified as a form of topological data analysis. Specifically, each point in the space represents a potential technological design or implementation, and each line segment in the space represents a local measure of technological improvement or degradation. We hypothesize five distinct kinds of performance development in technology within this space including the frontier, the fold, the salient, the soliton, and the lock-in. Then we examine the spaces to determine which kinds of development are the best explanations for the observed development. The technique is not extrapolative, and therefore cannot fully supplant existing technometric methods. Nonetheless, the approach offers a useful diagnostic to existing technometric methods, and may help advance theories of technological development. Minder weergeven

User Generated Content (UGC) requires new business intelligence methods to understand the influence of online opinion formation on customer purchasing decisions. We developed a conceptual model for deriving business intelligence from tweets, based on the Classical Model of Consensus Formation and the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We applied the model to the dynamic high-tech smartphone market by means of three case studies on the launch of new smartphones. By using Poisson regression, data- and… Meer weergeven

User Generated Content (UGC) requires new business intelligence methods to understand the influence of online opinion formation on customer purchasing decisions. We developed a conceptual model for deriving business intelligence from tweets, based on the Classical Model of Consensus Formation and the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We applied the model to the dynamic high-tech smartphone market by means of three case studies on the launch of new smartphones. By using Poisson regression, data- and sentiment-analysis on tweets we show how opinion leadership and real-life events effect the volume of online chatter and sentiments about the launch of new smartphones. Application of the model reveals businesses parameters that can be influenced to enhance competitiveness in dynamic high tech markets. Our conceptual model is suitable to be turned into a predictive model that takes the richness of tweets in online opinion formation into account. Minder weergeven

The electricity infrastructure, like many other networked infrastructures, is an indispensable and integral part of developed economies. The economic growth, quality of life and general well-being of modern societies all depend on the smooth, reliable and efficient operation of electricity system. On the other hand, adverse strategic behavior by the newly emerged actors in liberalized electricity sectors poses a threat to seamless operation of electricity system. Analyzing strategic behavior is… Meer weergeven

The electricity infrastructure, like many other networked infrastructures, is an indispensable and integral part of developed economies. The economic growth, quality of life and general well-being of modern societies all depend on the smooth, reliable and efficient operation of electricity system. On the other hand, adverse strategic behavior by the newly emerged actors in liberalized electricity sectors poses a threat to seamless operation of electricity system. Analyzing strategic behavior is not a straightforward call, even with regard to the non-networked infrastructures. Adding network complexity and the peculiarities of electricity make it even more difficult to analyze strategic behavior. The analysis has to be done with tailored methods that take into account the peculiarities of the underlying system. This study proposes game theoretical formal modeling approach as a way to analyze strategic behavior in liberalized electricity sectors. Three cases that exemplify strategic behavior in liberalized electricity sectors are chosen to be analyzed. For each case, a context of the strategic problem is provided and a game theoretical formal model is created in order to quantitatively conceptualize and represent the strategic problem. The outcomes offer valuable insights into strategic behavior in liberalized electricity sectors and demonstrate the need for ongoing analysis in this domain. This dissertation is the result of Sertaç Oruç’s PhD research at the faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. Minder weergeven

Energy storage is an important topic as many countries are seeking to increase the amount of electricity generation from renewable sources. An open and accessible online database on energy storage technologies was created, incorporating a total of 18 energy storage technologies and 134 technology pages with a total of over 1,800 properties. In this database information on technical maturity, technology readiness level and forecasting is included for a number of technologies. However, since the… Meer weergeven

Energy storage is an important topic as many countries are seeking to increase the amount of electricity generation from renewable sources. An open and accessible online database on energy storage technologies was created, incorporating a total of 18 energy storage technologies and 134 technology pages with a total of over 1,800 properties. In this database information on technical maturity, technology readiness level and forecasting is included for a number of technologies. However, since the data depends on various sources, it is far from complete and fairly unstructured. The chief challenge in managing unstructured data is understanding similarities between technologies. This in turn requires techniques for analyzing local structures in high dimensional data. This paper approaches the problem through the use and extension of t-stochastic neighborhood embedding (t-SNE). t-SNE embeds data that originally lies in a high dimensional space in a lower dimensional
space, while preserving characteristic properties. In this paper, the authors extend the t-SNE technique with an expectation-maximization method to manage incompleteness in the data. Furthermore, the authors identify some technology frontiers and demonstrate and discuss design trade-offs and design voids in the progress of energy storage technologies. Minder weergeven