I’ve read recently that the cost of removing CO2 from the air is about $600 per ton and that this cost is projected to go down significantly, perhaps to $100 per ton. So I asked myself what is the trade between an EV and an ICE with equally clean air. At 7,000 miles per year as assumed in this article I think an ICE produces about 3 tons of CO2 per year. An EV produces about 5 tons more CO2 to manufacture than an ICE and costs more, say $20,000 for arguments sake. If I’ve got this right then the break-even cost for equally clean air takes about 12 or 13 years at current CO2 clean up costs.
Acquiring and improving clean up technologies could help with other sources of CO2 such as a rocket launch which produces as much CO2 as 395 transatlantic flights.
Based on the two carbon capture facilities, we have here in Canada, this has been a flop. Their carbon footprint has been neat the amount of carbon captured, so the net gain is a fraction of what was projected. There is also a lot more pollution than CO2 that needs to be removed. If fact CO2 is really one of the milder concerns.
Bob, carbon capture and storage has also being pushed by the FF industry for decades and we have ZERO implementations of the tech.
EVs are a mature and proven technology that is already ramping up. No need for some magical tech that has zero working models but will magically drop 6 fold in price and be globally deployed at hundreds of gigatons capacity in short order. In 20 years there will be very few gasoline cars in the world. The problem is solved.
Besides the CO2, what about all the other toxins being emitted by ICEVs? That is the BIGGER problem. People focus much on CO2 instead of the real poison problem. Just not polluting the air w these toxic emissions alone is why we should stop burning gasoline.
Also, when we stop consuming oil for land based transportation we will reduce the need for destructive oil drilling by about 1.2 billion tons. We only need to mine about an extra 200 million tons of material to build enough batteries annually to make all cars run on electricity AND remove coal and gas from electricity production. Once the grid runs on solar and wind stored in batteries (bcz solar and wind is not available 24/7 in any one place) we will also remove 6.5 billion tons of destructive coal mining.
EVs and renewable energy will reduce not just car emissions but also about half of ALL global mining. Oil and coal alone amount to about 12 billion tons of mining/drilling a year (1.2 billion tons of coal is used for metallurgical purposes and won't stop. And most oil will still be consumed. A 100% BEV fleet drops oil consumption by about 25%). The next biggest material being mined is iron at 2.6 billion tons. Whatever we mine for batteries is insignificant. And all lithium-ion batteries (just like all lead-acid batteries today) will be recycled so even that extra mining will eventually be reduced to just growth and waste (maybe about 5%) once enough materials are above ground (probably 35-40 years). Currently estimates in the US (which is behind on all things batteries and EVs) are that already by 2037 we will create more batteries from recycled materials than from new mined raw materials.
I guess I’m still thinking we would be better off if there were a way to have the two technologies remain viable and competitive. You point out a number of valid reasons to go all EV but there are concerns as well.
As to the maturity of clean-up strategies you are of course correct. However this is true of all evolving technologies. We shouldn’t close ourselves off to other opportunities.
I understand the benefits of non-fossil-fuel alternatives but don’t we need to consider the realities of where these resources are located? A large majority of the alternative energy market is currently controlled by China. I understand that other sources of these resources are being explored but there is also significant push-back from environmental factions to exploiting these resources (e.g. the not-in-my-back-yard thinking). The US interior department recently blocked the twin metals mining project in Minnesota for example. I’m concerned about ignoring these realities hence my support for not giving up fossil fuel alternatives. We don’t live in a world where we are all working cooperatively to a common end. China the largest emitter of CO2 by far, for example, has doubled down on its plans for for using coal wanting to see if the alternatives will work. It’s not inconceivable that China and the west will be in conflict in the near term.
I’ve heard that sources of raw materials in other parts of the world (other than China) are talking about creating cartels like those for fossil fuels to control the resources needed for these alternative energy sources.
Shouldn’t we also consider slave and child labor in other parts of the world that are currently necessary to support current alternative energy sources? Also, what of the disposal/recycling scenario.
This is a complex issue and we need to think through all of the realities as we decide on our course of action.
China has a strong coal lobby that is as bad as the power of the oil lobby in the US. It is a double standard though to say you can't burn coal because it's bad now but when we did it, it was OK. The coal problem will go away as we transition to renewables over the next 20 years. Coal is dead. On China it's just being abused as a jobs program. Well maintained coal plants lasts about 40 years. The avg coal plant in the world is about 20 years. New plants being built are a fraction of what is getting shut down and in another 5 years building coal will be a no go virtually anywhere in the world. In 20 years they woll be gone. 10 years ago EVs had 0.1% market share. In 10 years it will be 100%. Same with FF electricity vs renewable electricity.
Child labor is a problem in many places. Just like racism unfortunately it will never be 100% eliminated. Clean and cheap abundant energy will enrich the world and child labor will be reduced because of access to energy leading to more kids getting access to education. The world doesn't develop equally. Child labor was a normal accepted thong in Western culture and the developed world just 100-150 years ago. The rest of the world will catch up as they become wealthier. The world is not perfect and don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.
The IRA was developed to bend supply chains (specifically for battery materials and making EVs and renewable energy products) back to the US. It's OUR failure to let China get in a leading position on renewable energy manufacturing capacity. Thanks the oil lobby and corrupt politicians for that. At least the powers to be have realised that batteries is the new oil and we might as well get on with it.
So much more to say but I accidentally lost what I typed TWICE now.
Thanks Bob. Fossil fuels as an energy means will go away. It is wasteful. Over 62% of all primary input energy in the US goes to waste because of combustion. Think about that. 2/3 of all fuels are wasted during combustion.
You get 100% of the pollution for 1/3 the work/energy.Withh a renewable system (which is busy happening) you cut out over 80% of this waste.
Wells to wheels NOTHING beats renewable energy and BEVs. Over 70% efficient. Oil to gasoline to ICE is around 20% efficient.
BEV is now a certainty. It took 5 years from 2012 to 2017 for BEV adoption to increase 10 fold and go from 0.1% to 1% of the auto market. From 2018 to 2022 it grew 10 fold again. 3% to 5% is the inflection point for ANY new technology. In 7-8 years BEV will be 75% to 90% of auto sales. The fleet of 1.5B ICEVs will get turned over in 15-20 years from 2030.
The same is now happening w solar and wind (the battery piece is solved bcz of EVs). Bcz of it's intermittency, solar and wind requires batteries. All these pieces of the puzzle are coming together. Solar surpassed 1000 GW of installed capacity globally last year. Our global electric capacity it about 7000 GW. However we will need to install 20,000 GW solar and wind (and about 300 TWh of batteries) to go all renewable (we will still have hundreds of GW of nuclear and hydro to support this).
All these technologies have known cost declines of 14% to 22% per year and has been occuring for over 50 years for solar and 30 years for lithium ion batteries since it's invention in 1990. BEVs and solar+wind+batteries are basically baked into reality now because of the declining cost curves and adoption hitting an inflection point.
ICEV and electricity adoption happened regardless of two world wars, a major global pandemic AND a global great depression between 1920 and 1945. We are going through a similar change now as then. But like we adopted coal electricity and oil/gasoline transportation then, we are now adopting renewable energy/electricity and electric cars.
Any regulations to clean up the air or to outlaw ICEVs are ridiculous because it will be TOTALLY UNNECESSARY. You cannot fight the economics.
EVs and renewable energy will reduce mining? Solar cells, wind generators, electric motors and batteries all require minerals like Li, Co, Cu, Se and rare earth metals which are much more destructive and toxic to mine than petroleum wells or gas fracking.
All those materials you mention are part of 200 million tons of metals being mined annually. The battery materials is a small part of that 200 million tons.
Even if it is 20m tons and scales up 20x it's only 400m tons. Coal use of 6.4b tons will go away. As well as 1.1b tons of oil. And at least 1b tons of NatGas used for heating and electricity generation (over 2b tons but not all of it will go away). +400m tons battery materials -8600m tons fossil fuels equals -8200m tons. Not that hard.
Also, we mine 6.8b tons of materials (includes oil, gas and coal) per year to sustain the lifestyle of the avg US citizen (40,000 pounds PER person).
If you have a problem w an extra few hundred million tons of material mining you need to first complain about the other 20b to 30b tons of mining globally for everything else.
The 'but the battery materials mining' argument is a FF sponsored mainstream media pushed sound bite. Go look up global materials mining numbers and realise you have been misled.
Also. Batteries can last 10-20 years in a car and then 20+ years as grid storage. And can then be infinitely recycled.
Solar panels last 40-50 years. And recycling them can also be readily accomplished ONCE there is enough demand for it. There is no demand currently bcz most solar panels in the world are only 10-15 years old.
Also. We need to recycle all the oil, coal and natgas we consume. Yeah, I didn't think it was about recycling 😉. As well as all the powerplants, oil drills and refineries when we stop using them. Please start complaining about that.
Actually current EV batteries can outlast the rest of the vehicle, as typical cycle life is up to 800,000 KM (500,000 Miles), with million mile batteries under development. Most people don’t put anywhere near this mileage on a vehicle. How long will that engine, transmission, timing chain etc. last on a gas vehicle? Tesla advises their drive train is designed for 1M miles.
Battery warranties are 8-10 years, but they should last for 15-20 years. At their end of life, they often still have 70% of the original range remaining.
The EV battery cells themselves, are typically designed for a minimum 1500 empty to 100% full charge cycles ( NCM chemistry ), more for LFP chemistry. The larger the battery, the less full cycles you will use for the same distance, so the longer it lasts.
Battery materials are infinitely recyclable. 99% of all lead-acid batteries gets recycled today. Lithium ion will be the same.
90% or more of a battery pack can be recycled (not the plastic bits maybe at this point). To mine and refine the same amount of materials will require much more energy than refining it. Batteries are highly refined ore already. Just re-use it.
Now please recycle all the oil, Natgas and coal we consume. If you care about recycling, then you have to care about the fact that no FF can be recycled. Obviously people don't think about that because it is not convenient to the FF narrative.
I’ve read recently that the cost of removing CO2 from the air is about $600 per ton and that this cost is projected to go down significantly, perhaps to $100 per ton. So I asked myself what is the trade between an EV and an ICE with equally clean air. At 7,000 miles per year as assumed in this article I think an ICE produces about 3 tons of CO2 per year. An EV produces about 5 tons more CO2 to manufacture than an ICE and costs more, say $20,000 for arguments sake. If I’ve got this right then the break-even cost for equally clean air takes about 12 or 13 years at current CO2 clean up costs.
Acquiring and improving clean up technologies could help with other sources of CO2 such as a rocket launch which produces as much CO2 as 395 transatlantic flights.
Based on the two carbon capture facilities, we have here in Canada, this has been a flop. Their carbon footprint has been neat the amount of carbon captured, so the net gain is a fraction of what was projected. There is also a lot more pollution than CO2 that needs to be removed. If fact CO2 is really one of the milder concerns.
Unfortunately people completely miss this. CO2 is a small part of the problem. Toxins is the really big problem.
Bob, carbon capture and storage has also being pushed by the FF industry for decades and we have ZERO implementations of the tech.
EVs are a mature and proven technology that is already ramping up. No need for some magical tech that has zero working models but will magically drop 6 fold in price and be globally deployed at hundreds of gigatons capacity in short order. In 20 years there will be very few gasoline cars in the world. The problem is solved.
Besides the CO2, what about all the other toxins being emitted by ICEVs? That is the BIGGER problem. People focus much on CO2 instead of the real poison problem. Just not polluting the air w these toxic emissions alone is why we should stop burning gasoline.
Also, when we stop consuming oil for land based transportation we will reduce the need for destructive oil drilling by about 1.2 billion tons. We only need to mine about an extra 200 million tons of material to build enough batteries annually to make all cars run on electricity AND remove coal and gas from electricity production. Once the grid runs on solar and wind stored in batteries (bcz solar and wind is not available 24/7 in any one place) we will also remove 6.5 billion tons of destructive coal mining.
EVs and renewable energy will reduce not just car emissions but also about half of ALL global mining. Oil and coal alone amount to about 12 billion tons of mining/drilling a year (1.2 billion tons of coal is used for metallurgical purposes and won't stop. And most oil will still be consumed. A 100% BEV fleet drops oil consumption by about 25%). The next biggest material being mined is iron at 2.6 billion tons. Whatever we mine for batteries is insignificant. And all lithium-ion batteries (just like all lead-acid batteries today) will be recycled so even that extra mining will eventually be reduced to just growth and waste (maybe about 5%) once enough materials are above ground (probably 35-40 years). Currently estimates in the US (which is behind on all things batteries and EVs) are that already by 2037 we will create more batteries from recycled materials than from new mined raw materials.
Thanks Johan.
I guess I’m still thinking we would be better off if there were a way to have the two technologies remain viable and competitive. You point out a number of valid reasons to go all EV but there are concerns as well.
As to the maturity of clean-up strategies you are of course correct. However this is true of all evolving technologies. We shouldn’t close ourselves off to other opportunities.
I understand the benefits of non-fossil-fuel alternatives but don’t we need to consider the realities of where these resources are located? A large majority of the alternative energy market is currently controlled by China. I understand that other sources of these resources are being explored but there is also significant push-back from environmental factions to exploiting these resources (e.g. the not-in-my-back-yard thinking). The US interior department recently blocked the twin metals mining project in Minnesota for example. I’m concerned about ignoring these realities hence my support for not giving up fossil fuel alternatives. We don’t live in a world where we are all working cooperatively to a common end. China the largest emitter of CO2 by far, for example, has doubled down on its plans for for using coal wanting to see if the alternatives will work. It’s not inconceivable that China and the west will be in conflict in the near term.
I’ve heard that sources of raw materials in other parts of the world (other than China) are talking about creating cartels like those for fossil fuels to control the resources needed for these alternative energy sources.
Shouldn’t we also consider slave and child labor in other parts of the world that are currently necessary to support current alternative energy sources? Also, what of the disposal/recycling scenario.
This is a complex issue and we need to think through all of the realities as we decide on our course of action.
Thanks Bob.
China has a strong coal lobby that is as bad as the power of the oil lobby in the US. It is a double standard though to say you can't burn coal because it's bad now but when we did it, it was OK. The coal problem will go away as we transition to renewables over the next 20 years. Coal is dead. On China it's just being abused as a jobs program. Well maintained coal plants lasts about 40 years. The avg coal plant in the world is about 20 years. New plants being built are a fraction of what is getting shut down and in another 5 years building coal will be a no go virtually anywhere in the world. In 20 years they woll be gone. 10 years ago EVs had 0.1% market share. In 10 years it will be 100%. Same with FF electricity vs renewable electricity.
Child labor is a problem in many places. Just like racism unfortunately it will never be 100% eliminated. Clean and cheap abundant energy will enrich the world and child labor will be reduced because of access to energy leading to more kids getting access to education. The world doesn't develop equally. Child labor was a normal accepted thong in Western culture and the developed world just 100-150 years ago. The rest of the world will catch up as they become wealthier. The world is not perfect and don't let perfect be the enemy of the good.
The IRA was developed to bend supply chains (specifically for battery materials and making EVs and renewable energy products) back to the US. It's OUR failure to let China get in a leading position on renewable energy manufacturing capacity. Thanks the oil lobby and corrupt politicians for that. At least the powers to be have realised that batteries is the new oil and we might as well get on with it.
So much more to say but I accidentally lost what I typed TWICE now.
Thanks for good exchange of ideas. I’m afraid I took things off track from the article Hannah wrote but it was worthwhile for me.
Thanks Bob. Fossil fuels as an energy means will go away. It is wasteful. Over 62% of all primary input energy in the US goes to waste because of combustion. Think about that. 2/3 of all fuels are wasted during combustion.
You get 100% of the pollution for 1/3 the work/energy.Withh a renewable system (which is busy happening) you cut out over 80% of this waste.
Wells to wheels NOTHING beats renewable energy and BEVs. Over 70% efficient. Oil to gasoline to ICE is around 20% efficient.
BEV is now a certainty. It took 5 years from 2012 to 2017 for BEV adoption to increase 10 fold and go from 0.1% to 1% of the auto market. From 2018 to 2022 it grew 10 fold again. 3% to 5% is the inflection point for ANY new technology. In 7-8 years BEV will be 75% to 90% of auto sales. The fleet of 1.5B ICEVs will get turned over in 15-20 years from 2030.
The same is now happening w solar and wind (the battery piece is solved bcz of EVs). Bcz of it's intermittency, solar and wind requires batteries. All these pieces of the puzzle are coming together. Solar surpassed 1000 GW of installed capacity globally last year. Our global electric capacity it about 7000 GW. However we will need to install 20,000 GW solar and wind (and about 300 TWh of batteries) to go all renewable (we will still have hundreds of GW of nuclear and hydro to support this).
All these technologies have known cost declines of 14% to 22% per year and has been occuring for over 50 years for solar and 30 years for lithium ion batteries since it's invention in 1990. BEVs and solar+wind+batteries are basically baked into reality now because of the declining cost curves and adoption hitting an inflection point.
ICEV and electricity adoption happened regardless of two world wars, a major global pandemic AND a global great depression between 1920 and 1945. We are going through a similar change now as then. But like we adopted coal electricity and oil/gasoline transportation then, we are now adopting renewable energy/electricity and electric cars.
Any regulations to clean up the air or to outlaw ICEVs are ridiculous because it will be TOTALLY UNNECESSARY. You cannot fight the economics.
Very well said. You nailed it IMO.
EVs and renewable energy will reduce mining? Solar cells, wind generators, electric motors and batteries all require minerals like Li, Co, Cu, Se and rare earth metals which are much more destructive and toxic to mine than petroleum wells or gas fracking.
All those materials you mention are part of 200 million tons of metals being mined annually. The battery materials is a small part of that 200 million tons.
Even if it is 20m tons and scales up 20x it's only 400m tons. Coal use of 6.4b tons will go away. As well as 1.1b tons of oil. And at least 1b tons of NatGas used for heating and electricity generation (over 2b tons but not all of it will go away). +400m tons battery materials -8600m tons fossil fuels equals -8200m tons. Not that hard.
Also, we mine 6.8b tons of materials (includes oil, gas and coal) per year to sustain the lifestyle of the avg US citizen (40,000 pounds PER person).
If you have a problem w an extra few hundred million tons of material mining you need to first complain about the other 20b to 30b tons of mining globally for everything else.
The 'but the battery materials mining' argument is a FF sponsored mainstream media pushed sound bite. Go look up global materials mining numbers and realise you have been misled.
Also. Batteries can last 10-20 years in a car and then 20+ years as grid storage. And can then be infinitely recycled.
Solar panels last 40-50 years. And recycling them can also be readily accomplished ONCE there is enough demand for it. There is no demand currently bcz most solar panels in the world are only 10-15 years old.
Also. We need to recycle all the oil, coal and natgas we consume. Yeah, I didn't think it was about recycling 😉. As well as all the powerplants, oil drills and refineries when we stop using them. Please start complaining about that.
Plus after 10 years the EV will require a new expensive battery replacement.
Actually current EV batteries can outlast the rest of the vehicle, as typical cycle life is up to 800,000 KM (500,000 Miles), with million mile batteries under development. Most people don’t put anywhere near this mileage on a vehicle. How long will that engine, transmission, timing chain etc. last on a gas vehicle? Tesla advises their drive train is designed for 1M miles.
Battery warranties are 8-10 years, but they should last for 15-20 years. At their end of life, they often still have 70% of the original range remaining.
The EV battery cells themselves, are typically designed for a minimum 1500 empty to 100% full charge cycles ( NCM chemistry ), more for LFP chemistry. The larger the battery, the less full cycles you will use for the same distance, so the longer it lasts.
Why do they only warranty a 500000 mile battery for 8 years or 100000 miles? Maybe they don’t want to put their money on their words.
Why do internal combustion engines only get warrantied for 3 years and 36k miles??? Because they stop working at that point?
Battery materials are infinitely recyclable. 99% of all lead-acid batteries gets recycled today. Lithium ion will be the same.
90% or more of a battery pack can be recycled (not the plastic bits maybe at this point). To mine and refine the same amount of materials will require much more energy than refining it. Batteries are highly refined ore already. Just re-use it.
Now please recycle all the oil, Natgas and coal we consume. If you care about recycling, then you have to care about the fact that no FF can be recycled. Obviously people don't think about that because it is not convenient to the FF narrative.