While overstating hybrid threats against the Baltics, commentators often understate what Russia is doing right now. It commits daily war crimes against civilian targets in Ukraine. Sabotage, arson and cyber-attacks on European allies are deadly serious, and getting worse, writes Edward Lucas.
As Baltic leaders sound the alarm over a possible Russian false-flag drone strike, they fear the real damage could come from the political chaos and hesitation it triggers among Nato allies in the crucial first hours.
As warnings of possible provocations from Moscow pile up, a system of ditches, trenches and bunkers is beginning to take shape along the 950-km border that the Baltic states share with Russia.
Internal conflicts in the Latvian coalition government came to a boil, after Ukrainian drones crashed into the country without interception. The formation of a new government is now in the hands of the rightwing opposition.
Slovak defence minister Robert Kaliňák announced Bratislava wants to join the Baltic Air Policing mission with its new F-16 fighter jets — mixing up the confusing cocktail of Robert Fico’s government foreign-policy messaging.
A Post-Nato Manifesto: Given that no country can defend itself alone, the priority is to make new alliances — flexible, capable frameworks of threat-aware allies that are willing to take risks and make sacrifices for themselves and for others. The most promising group of like-minded states includes the Nordic five (Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden) and the Baltic three (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania). Together with Britain and the Netherlands they are part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).
Responsibility for Europe reads differently from Bratislava than from Brussels. The new German defence strategy is worth reading carefully, particularly from the capitals whose security still depends on German territory. Responsibility for Europe will be defined in the next decade by what Berlin does if Washington no longer underwrites European defence at previous levels. Germany has now stated, in writing, that this is the planning horizon.
Patronising and inaccurate commentary from Western pundits aids Vladimir Putin’s aggression, writes Edward Lucas.
The real problem for the Baltics is not an unlikely Russian military attack in the future, but the divide-and-rule information operation going on right now, warns former editor at The Economist Edward Lucas.
Several stray drones from Ukraine, affected by electronic warfare, have crashed in Baltic states as local air defence systems struggled to detect them. Meanwhile, Ukraine is leading the way with new interceptor systems.