User Research For New Markets

Nations’ capabilities in frontier technologies will drive their fortunes. There is deep danger of this accentuating global wealth polarization, but there is also a real opportunity for developing countries to accelerate faster than the leaders. An excellent UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report on frontier technologies globally lays the current state and how we can shape a more inclusive global future. (Link in comments) Some of the key points: 🌍 $16 Trillion Prize, Running Fast Frontier‑tech revenue is set to jump from $2.5 trillion in 2023 to $16.4 trillion by 2033, with AI alone reaching $4.8 trillion and IoT $3.1 trillion. For developing countries, that growth window is large but time‑bound; early adoption can secure export niches before global standards solidify. ⚠️ Innovation Bottleneck Just 100 firms command over 40% of global business R&D, and half of that spend is in the United States. Such dominance skews AI toward capital‑intensive models, risking a loss of labor‑cost advantage for lower‑income economies. 🔧 Three Levers for Catch‑Up UNCTAD highlights a feedback loop: better compute and connectivity enable bigger data sets; richer data improve local algorithms; skilled talent then scales usage, justifying more infrastructure outlays. Grounded national plans should target these levers in parallel, not sequentially. 🤝 Practical Adoption Rules Field cases distil four rules: design for weak infrastructure; mine non‑traditional data; keep user interfaces simple; and form partnerships for expertise and finance. Examples range from offline crop‑diagnosis apps in Colombia to battery‑powered X‑ray units in South Sudan. 🚀 Evidence of Momentum Brazil, China, India and the Philippines already punch above their income class on UNCTAD’s readiness index, while developer numbers in Nigeria, Ghana and Indonesia are growing 30–45 % a year. Coupled with broader calls for inclusive AI governance, these signals show that emerging economies are positioned not just to adopt AI but to help shape its global uptake.

Selling into complex B2B Industries requires a completely different approach on LinkedIn. At Triangle, we typically spend 15+ hours on research before writing a single post. Step 1: We study your customers We go into LinkedIn and pull up 20-30 profiles of your ideal buyers. We analyze patterns across: - What posts are they engaging with right now? - What topics are they commenting on? - What language are they using when they discuss industry challenges? - Which thought leaders are they following? If your buyers are CROs or Heads of Strategy inside growth-stage companies, the nuance matters. Are they focused on regulatory risk? AI adoption? Margin pressure? Procurement scrutiny? That context determines what earns attention – and what creates instant skepticism. Step 2: We reverse-engineer your sales process We listen to your recent sales calls. We review your sales decks. We talk to your sales team. Why? Because your strongest content already exists – it's just trapped in private internal conversations. The objections you handle on calls, the moments where prospects lean in, the explanations that unblock deals – that's content. We translate what already works one-to-one into one-to-many positioning. Step 3: We map the competitive landscape We analyze: - What are competitors talking about? - What are the biggest voices in your industry saying? - Where's the white space opportunity? Most companies create content in a vacuum. They talk about their features, their team, their milestones – without considering what's already saturating the market. We identify the gaps where a credible, experience-led point of view can stand out. Step 4: We anchor everything to your differentiation After we've done all that research, we sit down for a strategic Deep Dive interview. We ask: - What you believe that others don't - The trade-offs you've made - The experiences that shaped your judgment That differentiation is what pulls you out of comparison mode and into category leadership. In long-sales-cycle, high-ACV deals, buyers aren't choosing based on features. They're choosing based on judgment, conviction, and evidence that you understand how they operate. That's why we spend time listening to your podcasts, watching your talks, reviewing sales calls, and getting genuinely immersed. The result: A commercial growth strategy that drives growth, not a content calendar.

For years, investors viewed emerging markets as the high-yield, high-risk corner of global fixed income. Yet the data and market performance now point in the opposite direction. As the chart below illustrates, IMF figures show that advanced economies carry much heavier debt burdens than emerging markets, averaging around 120 percent of GDP compared with roughly 70 percent in developing nations. The old assumption that “developed” meant fiscal stability no longer holds. Deficits remain stubbornly high across the US, Europe and Japan, while political gridlock and ageing demographics weigh on long-term balance sheets. By contrast, many emerging markets have pursued orthodox and disciplined policies. Central banks in Brazil, Mexico and Indonesia acted early to tighten monetary conditions after the pandemic, preserving credibility while developed peers delayed. Inflation targeting, improved external buffers and local investor depth have strengthened resilience. The results are showing. As the Financial Times recently highlighted, Africa’s markets are leading one of the hottest emerging-market rallies in years. Stocks in Nigeria, Kenya and Morocco have returned more than 40 percent in dollar terms this year, buoyed by record metals prices, currency stabilisation and structural reforms. Ghana’s and Zambia’s markets have more than doubled as gold and copper exports surged, while local investors have driven renewed confidence in domestic equities and bonds. Despite these shifts, emerging market debt still trades at a substantial yield premium to developed market equivalents. That gap increasingly reflects habit rather than fundamentals. With global savings declining and EM bonds gaining greater index representation, capital is likely to gravitate toward economies with healthier demographics, sounder fiscal positions and exposure to real assets. The world’s traditional risk hierarchy is turning on its head. The idea that “risk-free” equals “developed” may no longer fit the data.

Why Emerging Economies See AI as an Opportunity… and Rich Countries Often See It as a Threat?! Spending my summer holidays here traveling across Southeast Asia, and especially in Thailand, I’ve had the chance to experience firsthand the culture, energy, and mindset here. In the past year, I’ve read many studies — including the one in this chart — showing that countries like Thailand, Indonesia, China, and Malaysia are consistently at the top when asked: “Will AI create many new jobs in your country?” Meanwhile, richer Western nations, including my own Italy, often rank near the bottom. Why? My reflections, now reinforced by what I’ve observed locally: • Mindset of Growth vs. Mindset of Preservation – In emerging economies, AI is seen as a lever to leapfrog development, create new industries, and expand the pie. In mature economies, the conversation often focuses on protecting what already exists. • Demographics and Ambition – Younger populations with high aspirations tend to view technological disruption as a chance to accelerate their career paths. Older populations may see it as a threat to stability. • Baseline Expectations – If job markets are already constrained, any new industry (AI included) is perceived as a net positive. Where employment is relatively secure, change often triggers resistance. • Cultural Adaptability – I’ve noticed a greater openness to experimentation and entrepreneurial risk in these fast-growing economies, paired with fewer legacy processes holding them back. This difference in perception is not just an interesting cultural contrast, it’s a strategic signal. Countries embracing AI as an opportunity will likely invest more aggressively, move faster, and create the conditions for innovation to thrive. Extremely interesting, at least for me… both as a person passionate about AI… and also as an Italian

This chart, based on IMF projections for 2026, shows how the center of global economic momentum continues to shift eastward — with India, China, and Saudi Arabia leading the pack. India stands out with a forecasted 6.2% GDP growth, nearly double the global average of 3.1%, underscoring its position as the engine of global expansion. Its growth is driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and a steady inflow of foreign capital looking to diversify away from China. China’s 4.2% growth signals stabilization after years of property-sector distress and sluggish external demand, while Saudi Arabia (4.0%) continues to benefit from diversification efforts under Vision 2030, combining energy market strength with rapid development in non-oil sectors. By contrast, developed economies show structural stagnation — with the U.S. at 2.1%, and major European economies (Spain, UK) below 2%. This divergence illustrates how tight monetary conditions, aging demographics, and fiscal constraints are limiting Western growth potential. Taken together, the chart reflects a rebalancing of global economic gravity: the fastest-growing economies are concentrated in Asia and the Middle East, while advanced economies face a decade of subdued expansion — a pattern that may redefine global trade, investment flows, and geopolitical influence well beyond 2026. Source: Trade Brains

My new Forbes article: “India Is Building The Electric Economy Without The Fossil Detour”. This graph, inspired by Ember's newest analysis, might be one of the most important energy transition visuals I’ve seen in years. 💚 Not because it predicts the future with certainty. But because it challenges one of the deepest assumptions in economic history: That countries must first go through a long fossil-fuel phase before becoming modern and prosperous. For more than a century, the development model looked like this: 🌿 Biomass ⚠️ Fossil fuels ⚡ Electrification That was the path of the West. It was also China’s path, scaled at breathtaking speed. But India may now be showing the world something different. A new analysis from Ember suggests India could be taking an “electrotech fast-track” toward prosperity, moving much more directly into the electric age through: ☀️ Solar 🔋 Batteries 🚗 EVs ⚡ Electrification The numbers are extraordinary: • India reached a 5% solar share at around $9,000 GDP/capita • China reached the same milestone at around $23,000 • At equivalent stages of development, India is already generating around 5.5x more solar and wind electricity per person than China did This does NOT mean India has solved the energy transition. Coal still plays a major role. Huge grid, storage and industrial challenges remain. But the economics of energy have changed. Solar, batteries and electric technologies are now cheap enough that emerging economies may no longer need to lock themselves into deep fossil fuel dependency before becoming modern and industrialized. That changes everything. Countries may no longer need to follow the smoke to find prosperity. They can follow the wire. Read the full Forbes article in the comments 👇 #ElectroTech #WeDontHaveTime #MakeScienceGreatAgain #WeCanDoIt #India #China

Can Emerging Markets continue to Outperform? As of today (4/22/26) Emerging Markets are up 15.1% YTD compared to the S&P 500 up 4.6%. And this is after a blockbuster 2025 where EM outperformed by more than 17%. Can this outperformance continue? We believe it can, in fact, we believe we are likely still early in a 7-10 year cycle. Here are 11 interesting datapoints we're thinking about when thinking about if EM will continue to outperform: 1️⃣ The IMF projects EM growth of 3.9% in 2026 vs. just 1.4% for advanced economies 2️⃣ EMs are expected to drive roughly 65% of global GDP growth for the next decade 3️⃣ EM total debt sits near 72% of GDP versus 110% for developed markets. The fiscal story has quietly flipped over the past decade. 4️⃣ The dollar index dropped ~9% through mid-2025, and real exchange rate indicates that it is still 10% overvalued on PPP basis (BISBUSR). 5️⃣ MSCI EM trades at a forward P/E around 13x vs. well above 21x for the S&P 500. 6️⃣ EM PEG ratio sits at 0.7x versus ~1.7x for MSCI World 7️⃣ Consensus expects ~34% EPS growth for EM in 2026, versus 14% for developed markets. 8️⃣ Return-on-equity convergence between EM and DM is a key trend to watch. It's already underway and EM will be over 18% ROE by end of 2026. 9️⃣ SK Hynix trades at ~5.1x forward earnings. Nvidia trades at ~23.6x. Similar growth, interconnected companies, but the EM counterpart at a fraction of the multiple. 🔟 TSMC at ~17x forward P/E has arguably the widest moat in the entire AI supply chain, is growing at 33% 3YF CAGR and makes a 38% ROE. 1️⃣ 1️⃣ India's inflation has cooled to ~2.8% from 7-8% a few years ago, and Apple plans to assemble most US-bound iPhones there by end of 2026. After 15 years of one-way US outperformance, the setup has genuinely changed: weaker dollar, cheaper valuations, faster earnings growth, stronger balance sheets, and structural leadership in the technologies in favor of EM. Pop Quiz: There are currently 3 major countries in EM that are trading at below 0.6x PEG multiple (P/E Multiple over EPS earnings growth). 0.6x is very attractive compared to 1.9x long-term average! Can you guess which countries they are? Answer in the comments Ethos Investment Management

Love this #research paper. A decade ago when working on peace / conflict we were talking about cities being the economic and political future. There's more and more research suggesting studying #economicdevelopment needs to be done below the country level: ❓ Should we study economic growth at the country level, or are nations the wrong unit of analysis? 🤔 Do cities within the same country actually follow the same growth trajectory? ❓ And when economic shocks hit, do they spread by geography or by something else entirely? 🔬 A new study tackles this by constructing GDP trajectories for 8,808 functional urban areas across 165 countries over 1993 to 2019, using satellite nighttime light data. 👩🔬The researchers identify 17 distinct, persistent growth regimes that transcend national borders, finding: 🏙️ Cities within the same country frequently belong to different economic regimes, while structurally similar cities on different continents share the same one. For example, Mexico's cities cluster with the US and Canada rather than with the rest of Latin America, reflecting stronger North American production network integration. 🌐 National convergence turns out to be an aggregation artifact. Convergence seems to operate within regimes, not on a cross-country basis. 🔗 Economic shocks propagate along lines of structural similarity, not geographic proximity. Advanced economies act as net shock exporters, while emerging economies tend to absorb or amplify disturbances. Meanwhile, domestically oriented economies like India's cities function as buffers, insulated from global contagion. 📊 Within-country spatial #inequality declines with industrialization maturity, consistent with growth initially concentrating in leading cities before diffusing across the urban system. For #economics and #publicpolicy, the implications are clear: ❌ One-size-fits-all national #development strategies that treat the "average city" as representative may not work; while ✅ Spatially targeted #urbanpolicy calibrated to regime-specific dynamics might be more effective. See here for the full paper: https://lnkd.in/g-Qug2KP Paper source: Mengesha, I. and Roy, D., 2026. Cities cluster into growth regimes that propagate shocks. arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.16007v1. Astrid R.N. Haas

The report Elevating Environmental, Social, and Governance Reporting in Emerging Markets, prepared by the IFC - International Finance Corporation, The World Bank Group in collaboration with the Swiss Confederation, examines the evolving landscape of #ESGreporting in emerging economies. As global sustainability standards gain prominence, the report highlights the challenges and opportunities faced by companies in these markets as they strive to meet international expectations for transparency and accountability. The study underscores the growing demand for standardized ESG disclosure frameworks, driven by investor pressure, regulatory developments, and shifting #consumerexpectations. It identifies key barriers to effective ESG reporting in #emergingmarkets, including inconsistent regulatory #environments, limited access to reliable #data, and a lack of technical expertise. Despite these challenges, the report showcases success stories where firms have leveraged ESG reporting to enhance #financialperformance, improve stakeholder trust, and attract international investment. A central theme of the report is the role of regulatory bodies and financial institutions in facilitating the adoption of ESG standards. It emphasizes that harmonizing ESG reporting frameworks with global best practices—such as those set by the International Sustainability Standards Board (#ISSB) and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (#TCFD)—can help emerging market firms bridge the transparency gap. Moreover, the study highlights the potential for digital tools and AI-driven analytics to streamline ESG #data collection and reporting processes. Looking forward, the report stresses that improving ESG reporting in emerging markets will require a coordinated effort among governments, private sector leaders, and international organizations. Strengthening regulatory frameworks, investing in capacity-building initiatives, and fostering cross-border collaboration will be critical to ensuring that #ESG disclosure becomes an enabler of #sustainableeconomicgrowth rather than a compliance burden. Ultimately, firms that proactively integrate ESG principles into their #businessstrategies will be better positioned to compete in a global economy increasingly defined by sustainability and responsible investment.

Markets obsessed over geopolitics and artificial intelligence last year, but the best performing stock markets didn’t come from safe-havens or the tech-heavy benchmarks. The “unexpected winners” came from frontier and small emerging markets, including each of the five best performing stock markets globally: Argentina (+114% in USD terms), Kenya (+79%), Pakistan (+79%), Sri Lanka (+70%), and Tanzania (+33%).   Why? The asset class has continued to offer diversification via uncorrelated returns, trading at historically low valuations, with lower volatility than mainstream emerging markets. Looking ahead, our key themes in 2025 for the overlooked frontier and small emerging markets are: -𝗥𝗲𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺, 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆, & 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 - Bold reforms are accelerating economic growth -𝗘𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗮 & 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗿𝗶𝗳𝗳 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗽 – Most of these economies (ex-Vietnam) aren’t in the crosshairs of tariffs and have low China exposure -𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗖𝗹𝗮𝘀𝗵, 𝗠𝗶𝗱𝗱𝗹𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗲 – These countries are leveraging superpower rivalries to secure foreign capital for industrial expansion -𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗲𝘆 𝗪𝗮𝘃𝗲 – Aging workforces plague most of the world, yet these countries are adding 130 million+ to their workforces over the next decade -𝗛𝗼𝗺𝗲𝗴𝗿𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗛𝗲𝗿𝗼𝗲𝘀 – Local consumer brands outpacing global giants, growing faster and commanding higher market share https://lnkd.in/eurfh9BV