Understanding Post-Quantum Technology

🔐Word o’ the Day | Year | Decade: Crypto-agility, Baby! Yesterday morning, I did a fun fireside chat with Bethany Gadfield - Netzel at the FIA, Inc. Expo in Chicago. We talked about cyber resilience, artificial intelligence, Rubik’s cubes, and that thing called quantum! A question came up at the end, “What can firms actually do today to begin transitioning to post-quantum cryptography?” So thought I would take the opportunity to share my thoughts more broadly on this important, but not super well understood, topic: 1. Don’t wait. The clock for quantum-safe cryptography is already ticking. NIST released its first set of post-quantum standards last year (https://lnkd.in/esTm8uPw) and CISA put out a “Strategy for Migrating to Automated Post-Quantum Discovery and Inventory Tools” last year as part of its broader Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Initiative (https://lnkd.in/evpF4umv). h/t Garfield Jones, D.Eng.! 2. Inventory & prioritize. Map all cryptographic usage: what keys, certificates, protocols, and data streams exist today? Which assets hold long-lived value and are at risk of “harvest-now, decrypt-later”? Build a migration roadmap that prioritizes highest-risk systems (e.g., financial settlement platforms, inter-bank links, legacy encryption). 3. Establish crypto-agility. Ensure your architecture supports swapping algorithms, updating certificates, & layering classical + post-quantum primitives without a full system rebuild. This kind of flexibility is key for resilience. 4. Pilot and migrate. Use the new NIST-approved algorithms; experiment first on less time-sensitive systems, validate performance and interoperability, then scale to mission-critical applications. NIST’s IR 8547 report provides a framework for this transition. 5. Vendor & supply-chain alignment. Ask your vendors & service providers: “What’s your PQC transition plan? When will you support NIST-approved post-quantum algorithms? Are your update paths crypto-agile?” If the answer isn’t clear or (as a former boss of mine used to say) they look at you like a “pig at a wristwatch,” you’ve got a potentially serious third-party risk. 6. Board and Exec engagement. Position this not as an IT problem but a fiduciary risk and resilience imperative. The transition to quantum-safe cryptography is multi-year and multi-layered—waiting until it’s urgent means it will be too late.

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC): Why We Must Prepare Before Quantum Computers Arrive What exactly is PQC? Is it a tool? An attack? A new policy? Let’s make it clear. PQC (Post-Quantum Cryptography) is not a product or software you install. It’s a new generation of cryptographic algorithms designed to protect our data from the power of future quantum computers. Every secure connection we make today from online banking to VPNs relies on mathematical problems like RSA or Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC). These are strong today because even the world’s fastest supercomputer would take years to break a 2048-bit RSA key. But a quantum computer doesn’t work like a traditional one. It doesn’t calculate with just 1s and 0s. Instead, it uses qubits capable of existing in multiple states at once. This means quantum computers can process massive parallel calculations that our current machines can’t. That’s where the concern begins. Algorithms like RSA and ECC can be broken in hours or days using quantum algorithms such as Shor’s algorithm. I give you example, imagine your bank’s SSL certificate that secures online transactions today. It uses RSA-2048. If a threat actor records that encrypted traffic today and in a few years gets access to a quantum computer they could decrypt that communication easily. This is called “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later”. It means attackers can steal your encrypted data now, store it and decrypt it in the future once they have quantum power. For organisations like banks, government agencies or healthcare providers this is a huge risk. Sensitive data must remain confidential for decades. So what is PQC really? PQC is the next wave of encryption standards that are resistant to quantum attacks. Instead of relying on problems like factorisation, PQC algorithms use lattice-based, code-based or hash-based methods that even a quantum computer can’t easily solve. In fact, NIST has already announced its first three official PQC standards this year a sign that the transition is already happening globally. Quantum computing will change everything. It’s not about fear it’s about readiness. PQC is our way of ensuring that even when quantum arrives, our communications, banking, healthcare and national data remain protected. The future of cybersecurity will not just be about detecting attacks, but about securing cryptography before it becomes breakable.

NIST – Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography Quantum Readiness outlines a comprehensive framework for transitioning cryptographic systems to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) in response to the emerging threat of quantum computers. Quantum technology is advancing rapidly and poses a significant risk to current public-key cryptographic methods like RSA, ECC, and DSA. This guide aims to assist organizations in preparing for and implementing PQC to safeguard sensitive data and critical systems. Key Points  The Quantum Threat Quantum computers are expected to disrupt cryptography by efficiently solving mathematical problems that underpin widely used encryption and key exchange methods. This would render current public-key systems ineffective in protecting sensitive data, emphasizing the need for cryptographic agility.  NIST PQC Standards NIST is spearheading efforts to standardize quantum-resistant algorithms through an open competition and evaluation process. These algorithms, designed to withstand quantum attacks, focus on two primary areas: 1. Key Establishment: Protecting methods like Diffie-Hellman and RSA key exchange. 2. Digital Signatures: Securing authentication processes.  Migration Framework The document provides a phased approach to migrating cryptographic systems to PQC: 1. Assessment Phase:    - Inventory cryptographic dependencies in current systems.    - Evaluate systems at risk from quantum threats based on sensitivity and lifespan. 2. Preparation Phase:    - Conduct pilot testing of candidate PQC algorithms in existing infrastructure.    - Develop a hybrid approach that combines classical and post-quantum algorithms to ensure interoperability during transition. 3. Implementation Phase:    - Replace vulnerable cryptographic methods with PQC in a phased manner.    - Ensure scalability, performance, and compatibility with existing systems. 4. Monitoring and Updates:    - Continuously monitor the effectiveness of implemented solutions.  Challenges in PQC Migration - Performance Impact: PQC algorithms often have larger key sizes, increased latency, and greater computational demands compared to classical algorithms. - Interoperability: Ensuring smooth integration with legacy systems poses significant technical challenges.  Best Practices - Use hybrid encryption to maintain compatibility while testing PQC algorithms. - Engage in collaboration with vendors, industry groups, and government initiatives to align with best practices and standards. Conclusion The transition to post-quantum cryptography is a proactive measure to secure data and communications against future threats. NIST emphasizes the importance of starting preparations immediately to mitigate risks and ensure a smooth, efficient migration process. Organizations should focus on inventorying dependencies, piloting PQC solutions, and developing cryptographic agility to adapt to this transformative technological shift.

Three weeks ago, our Devsinc security architect, walked into my office with a chilling demonstration. Using quantum simulation software, she showed how RSA-2048 encryption – the same standard protecting billions of transactions daily – could theoretically be cracked in just 24 hours by a sufficiently powerful quantum computer. What took her classical computer billions of years to attempt, quantum algorithms could solve before tomorrow's sunrise. That moment crystallized a truth I've been grappling with: we're not just approaching a technological evolution; we're racing toward a cryptographic apocalypse. The quantum computing market tells a story of inevitable disruption, surging from $1.44 billion in 2025 to an expected $16.22 billion by 2034 – a staggering 30.88% CAGR that signals more than market enthusiasm. Research shows a 17-34% probability that cryptographically relevant quantum computers will exist by 2034, climbing to 79% by 2044. But here's what keeps me awake at night: adversaries are already employing "harvest now, decrypt later" strategies, collecting our encrypted data today to unlock tomorrow. For my fellow CTOs and CIOs: the U.S. National Security Memorandum 10 mandates full migration to post-quantum cryptography by 2035, with some agencies required to transition by 2030. This isn't optional. Ninety-five percent of cybersecurity experts rate quantum's threat to current systems as "very high," yet only 25% of organizations are actively addressing this in their risk management strategies. To the brilliant minds entering our industry: this represents the greatest cybersecurity challenge and opportunity of our generation. While quantum computing promises revolutionary advances in drug discovery, optimization, and AI, it simultaneously threatens the cryptographic foundation of our digital world. The demand for quantum-safe solutions will create entirely new career paths and industries. What moves me most is the democratizing potential of this challenge. Whether you're building solutions in Silicon Valley or Lahore, the quantum threat affects us all equally – and so does the opportunity to solve it. Post-quantum cryptography isn't just about surviving disruption; it's about architecting the secure digital infrastructure that will power humanity's next chapter. The countdown has begun. The question isn't whether quantum will break our current security – it's whether we'll be ready when it does.

Most quantum boardroom conversations end without an agenda. They end with a posture — "we're monitoring quantum developments," "we're taking it seriously". Neither statement produces a plan. The distinction matters because quantum creates three problem classes, each with a different urgency and a different cost of inaction. A generic posture misaddresses all three at once. The right response, for most leadership teams, has three parts. The first is to defend now. Post-quantum cryptography belongs on the enterprise risk agenda as a current priority. That means building visibility into cryptographic dependencies across the enterprise, identifying migration priorities, and mapping third-party exposure. This is the part of the quantum agenda that cannot wait. The second is to explore selectively. Most leadership teams do not need a wide portfolio of quantum pilots. They need a small number of focused efforts on high-value problems where the workload aligns with quantum's actual strengths — evaluated against the strongest available classical alternative. Each effort should be a targeted test: one specific problem, one clear classical benchmark, one honest evaluation. The third is to build options. For companies in simulation-relevant sectors — pharmaceuticals, advanced materials, energy — the right posture is modest investment in partnerships and early hardware collaborations. The goal is R&D workflows that are ready to integrate quantum subroutines when the technology matures. The companies that benefit most will not necessarily be those spending the most today. They will be the ones best positioned to move when the moment arrives. The most common failure on quantum is conflating the urgency of the three classes — treating all three as equally distant or equally immediate, when each has a different clock running. The organizations that get this right understand early which problem classes matter to their business, which ones to set aside, and what the distinction demands of them starting Monday morning. https://lnkd.in/gkymW7Xm

Happy to see my article has been published at ABP Live on "Beyond AI: Why Quantum-Safe #Cryptography Is a Business Imperative in 2025" The alarming rise in cyberattacks—both in India and globally—makes one thing painfully clear: traditional encryption is no longer enough. In India alone, businesses stand to lose ₹20,000 crore this year, while global cybercrime costs are projected to reach $13.82 trillion by 2028. Even worse? The impending quantum era threatens to render our current cryptographic systems obsolete. Technologies like RSA, which power everything from internal communications to critical external collaborations, are vulnerable to quantum-enabled decryption. So what must businesses do right now? Embrace Quantum-Safe Messaging: Opt for end-to-end encrypted platforms designed to withstand quantum attacks, especially for communications with clients, partners, and vendors. Follow Standards and Best Practices: NIST has already rolled out the first wave of Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standards—like ML-KEM for encryption and ML-DSA for digital signatures. Think Strategically, Not Just Tactically: Transitioning to PQC is more than a technical upgrade—it’s a strategic initiative. Build governance, crypto-agility, and roadmap planning into your cybersecurity strategy. What the world is doing: - Europe aims to migrate to quantum-safe encryption by 2030, starting with risk assessments and awareness campaigns in 2026 - The UK’s NCSC is urging organizations to begin full migration planning by 2028 and complete it by 2035 - Setting an example in the private sector, it has integrated post-quantum encryption into its WireGuard and Lightway protocols using NIST’s ML-KEM algorithm Reports from India’s BFSI sector show a worrying lack of readiness—yet almost 58% of CISOs recognize the threat within the next three years Key takeaway: Quantum-safe cryptography isn’t a futuristic concept—it’s a present-day necessity. The threat of "store now, decrypt later" attacks means the data we transmit today may be vulnerable tomorrow. Waiting isn’t an option Whether you’re in BFSI, government, telecoms, or healthcare, the time to act is now. Let’s lead the shift toward a secure quantum future. #QuantumSafe #Cybersecurity #PostQuantumCryptography #CryptoAgility #DigitalTrust #QuantumReady #QNulabs QNu Labs

From a friend... 'Today, almost all data on the Internet, including bank transactions, medical records, and secure chats, is protected with an encryption scheme called RSA (named after its creators Rivest, Shamir, and Adleman). This scheme is based on a simple fact—it is virtually impossible to calculate the prime factors of a large number in a reasonable amount of time, even on the world’s most powerful supercomputer. Unfortunately, large quantum computers, if and when they are built, would find this task a breeze, thus undermining the security of the entire Internet. Luckily, quantum computers are only better than classical ones at a select class of problems, and there are plenty of encryption schemes where quantum computers don’t offer any advantage. Today, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) announced the standardization of three post-quantum cryptography encryption schemes. With these standards in hand, NIST is encouraging computer system administrators to begin transitioning to post-quantum security as soon as possible... ...Most experts believe large-scale quantum computers won’t be built for at least another decade. So why is NIST worried about this now? There are two main reasons. First, many devices that use RSA security, like cars and some IoT devices, are expected to remain in use for at least a decade. So they need to be equipped with quantum-safe cryptography before they are released into the field. Second, a nefarious individual could potentially download and store encrypted data today, and decrypt it once a large enough quantum computer comes online. This concept is called “harvest now, decrypt later“ and by its nature, it poses a threat to sensitive data now, even if that data can only be cracked in the future.' https://lnkd.in/gxsczMAY

✏️ The G7 central banks’ Quantum Technologies Working Group (QTWG) has published its first report, “Preparing for Quantum Technologies: Key Considerations for Financial Sector Participants” The report examines two areas where quantum technologies may have material implications for finance. 👉 The first concerns data and communication security, in light of advances in quantum computing that are expected, over time, to challenge widely used cryptographic techniques underpinning digital trust. 👉 The second focuses on potential applications of quantum technologies across financial markets, payment systems and central banking activities, as well as their broader system-level effects. Some key ideas on quantum security: 🚩 Assessments suggest a non-negligible probability that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could emerge over the coming decade. 🚩 The possibility of “harvest-now, decrypt-later” attacks highlight the importance of long-term data confidentiality. 🚩 Quantum-related risks are increasingly incorporated into discussions on financial system resilience. 🚩 The implementation of post-quantum cryptography is, however, not a simple substitution exercise. 🚩 Post-quantum cryptography also interacts with broader questions of cryptographic agility and governance. 🚩 Use of confidential quantum computing to ensure that data and computational intent remain hidden from the quantum service provider, even while computations are being performed, considering that quantum computing will be mostly accessed through cloud-based platforms. 🚩 Quantum sensing enables forms of measurement or surveillance that challenge existing assumptions about privacy, detectability or interference resistance. One key highlight for me ion this document is how it underscores the importance of viewing quantum security in a holistic manner, beyond cryptography. Some key challenges identified on quantum security: 🚩 Interoperability and transition complexity: Extended transition phases may require parallel operation of multiple security standards, increasing complexity and coordination challenges. 🚩 Operational dependencies and third-party risks: Reliance on vendors, service providers and specialised infrastructure develop as supply chain dependencies. 🚩 Cryptographic agility and governance: Effective governance and coordination mechanisms are critical to managing long-term cryptographic evolution. 🚩 Skills and operational readiness: Differences in skills and resources may shape the pace and scope of adoption across institutions. The report was published by Banque de France at https://lnkd.in/epHRThpy

What Google’s latest quantum experiment means for digital security right now Google’s new Quantum Echoes experiment confirms progress in verifying quantum behaviour using the 65-qubit Willow processor. This development has sparked many discussions about whether Q-day is now closer. Q-day refers to the moment when a quantum computer can break widely used encryption standards like RSA-2048 and ECC. The foundation for this concern comes from Shor’s algorithm, which shows that a sufficiently capable quantum system could factor large numbers faster than classical methods, undermining the mathematics behind public key encryption. Today’s quantum devices operate with only 100s of noisy qubits, far below the millions of logical qubits needed to threaten encryption. The concept of “harvest now, decrypt later” is central to security planning. This means that encrypted data gathered today could be decrypted once quantum capability reaches the threshold. Organisations must move toward quantum safe cryptography such as CRYSTALS-Kyber for encryption and Dilithium for digital signatures. These algorithms are now standardised and recommended. For banks, cloud services, government agencies, and critical infrastructure providers, this clarity is an urgent reminder to review security roadmaps. Taking early steps in post-quantum readiness will strengthen long-term data protection and maintain trust in digital systems. If your security strategy does not yet include post-quantum planning, now is the time to start defining that roadmap.