Sales Target Setting In Retail

Yesterday’s sales can’t see tomorrow’s storm, But AI can 😎 Most manufacturers still build demand forecasts based on one thing: 𝐡𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬. Which is fine… until the market shifts. Or weather changes. Or a social post goes viral. (Which is basically always.) That’s why AI is changing the forecasting game. Not by making predictions perfect—just a lot less wrong. And a little less wrong can mean a lot more profitable. According to the Institute of Business Forecasting, the average tech company saves $𝟗𝟕𝟎𝐊 per year by reducing under-forecasting by just 1%, and another $𝟏.𝟓𝐌 by trimming over-forecasting. For consumer product companies, those same 1% improvements are worth $𝟑.𝟓𝐌 (under-forecasting) and $𝟏.𝟒𝟑𝐌 (over-forecasting). (Source: https://lnkd.in/e_NJNevk) And were are only talking 1 improvement%!!! Let that sink in... All that money just from getting a little better at predicting what customers will actually buy. And yes, AI can help you get there: • By ingesting external signals (weather, social, events, IoT, etc.) • By recognizing nonlinear patterns that Excel never will • And by constantly learning—unlike your spreadsheet But it’s not just about tech. It’s about process: • Use Forecast Value-Added (FVA) to track which steps help (or hurt) • Get sales, marketing, and ops aligned in S&OP—not working in silos • Focus on data quality—AI is only as smart as your ERP is clean • Plan continuously—forecasting is not a set-it-and-forget-it task Bottom line: If you’re still relying on history to predict the future, you’re underestimating the cost of being wrong. Your competitors aren’t. ******************************************* • Visit www.jeffwinterinsights.com for access to all my content and to stay current on Industry 4.0 and other cool tech trends • Ring the 🔔 for notifications!

I do dozens of interviews with top CMOs every year. I always ask what the best performing marketing channel is. And right now everyone is saying events. Post COVID events are back, but also now in an AI world, I think there's a stronger appetite to get out and connect with real people vs. just getting answers from ChatGPT. But: like anything in marketing, running events just because everyone else is doing them is a great way to set money on fire (and still not drive any incremental business). Whether it's a booth at a trade show. A VIP dinner. A 500-person conference. They can all work. They can all flop. The difference: having a real plan and strategy for that event going in. Why do it in the first place? (which continues to be the most important lesson in marketing - what's in it for me? what's the hook? why should people come to our thing?) We talked to two event experts on the Exit Five pod recently Stephanie Christensen and Kristina DeBrito — and here are 5 keys they shared for B2B event success: 1. Pick the right format. Not all events do the same job. Big splash? Go flagship. Want pipeline? Try VIP roundtables. Tiny budget? Host micro-events around existing conferences. Set real goals. 2. “Leads” are not enough anymore. Are you driving awareness? Accelerating deals? Generating pipeline? Define this upfront—or you’ll waste time measuring the wrong stuff. There are more metrics than just "did we get leads from this event" and in today's world leads are tablestalkes. 3. Align your team, bro. Sales and marketing must move in lockstep. Slack alerts for registrations. Sales meeting updates. Leaderboards. It all matters. This is a team effort. 4. Make it memorable. People forget panels. They remember custom pancakes and great venues. Was the food good? Did the WiFi work? Did Oprah show up? Just kidding. Making sure you'r reading. But think surprise and delight, not branded frisbees. 5. Put the work in on the follow up. Events don't close deals - follow-up does. Segment attendees. Create custom offers. Babysit the handoff to sales like your job depends on it. Because it does. You just went shopping and got all these fresh groceries - dont let them spoil. B2B buyers want real connection again. Events can create that. Are you feeling this desire for events? Are you doing events in your business right now? Let me know...

Conferences are expensive, boring, and typically have low ROI....but company-led EVENTS on the other hand can be powerful signals. Here's the exact playbook we used at Onward to organize profitable events where prospects can have a great time AND move closer to buying: ➝ 1. Align on your goal. I used to make the mistake of expecting a close within 30 days of an event and would be continually disappointed based on that expectation. Now I consider events another "touch point" in the customer journey/funnel. Our goal is simply to usher the customer to the next stage of the funnel. So if all your leads are top of the funnel, don't expect to close at the event. It's about a) learning what moves the needle for them and b) educating them on our ROI. This will result in moving them to the next sales stage. Your mindset and intentions here are important because otherwise, your pitch will misfire and either come off too brash or too aggressive. ➝ 2. Set the agenda to be what the client would want—not what you want. One of our go-to tactics is mixing education and entertainment. We would create an interactive, immersive learning session w/ a world-class expert with a focus on equipping attendees with tangible takeaways in addition to networking. ➝ 3. Find great partners. In order to share the budget, we typically find like-minded companies that we want to partner with and share customer leads. We participated in Retention.com's marquee summer event in Malibu called Retox and it was one of the more lavish events we've been a part of with over 200+ brands attending. It takes a lot to move the needle for customers to get excited and sometimes you have to go all out! ➝ 4. Yet the simplest format is often the most effective—an intimate, private dinner. You'd be surprised at how much common ground you can find with a potential customer over a 2-hour dinner. Typically there are no pitches, just real connections. The sales pitches will come later—but upfront it's about getting to know one another and seeing how it would be to work together. Sales is about developing relationships and meaningful relationships are built when people can let their guard down and simply connect as human beings. And that's exactly what we aim for. So if you're tired of the same old networking scene and you're craving experiences that truly move the needle, I'd love to connect. What are some unique events you've thrown? I'm always looking for new ideas.

Inflation isn't just about rising prices; it's a catalyst for changing consumer behaviors. As purchasing power shifts, businesses must adapt swiftly to meet evolving demands. Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL), a leader in the FMCG sector, showcases how embracing AI can turn these challenges into opportunities. 📌 The Challenge #HUL observed significant fluctuations in demand across its diverse product portfolio during inflationary periods. Premium products experienced slower sales, leading to overstock situations, while budget-friendly items frequently faced stockouts. Traditional forecasting methods, relying heavily on historical sales data, struggled to keep pace with these rapid changes in consumer preferences. 📊 The Solution: AI-Driven Demand Forecasting To address this, HUL integrated AI-powered analytics into its demand forecasting processes. This advanced system enabled the company to: Analyze Real-Time Consumer Behavior: By examining current purchasing patterns and consumer sentiment, HUL could detect emerging trends and shifts in preferences. Incorporate External Economic Indicators: The AI model factored in various economic indicators, such as inflation rates and consumer confidence indices, to predict their impact on product demand. Optimize Inventory Management: With precise demand forecasts, HUL adjusted its inventory levels accordingly, ensuring optimal stock across all product categories. 🔹 Key Insight: The AI-driven approach revealed that demand for budget-friendly products was increasing at a rate three times higher than traditional models had predicted, while premium product sales were declining in specific regions. 📈 The Impact 20% Reduction in Unsold Premium Stock: By aligning inventory with actual demand, HUL minimized excess stock of premium items. 35% Improvement in Stock Availability for Budget-Friendly Products: Ensuring that high-demand, cost-effective products were readily available led to increased customer satisfaction. Enhanced Revenue and Profit Margins: Optimized inventory management reduced holding costs and prevented lost sales, positively impacting the bottom line. 💡 The Lesson In times of economic uncertainty, relying solely on historical data can be a pitfall. HUL's proactive adoption of AI-driven demand forecasting exemplifies how leveraging advanced analytics allows businesses to stay agile and responsive to market dynamics, ensuring they meet consumer needs effectively How is your organization utilizing data analytics to navigate market fluctuations? #datadrivendecisionmaking #businessstrategies #dataanalytics #demandforecasting

Ever wonder why some e-commerce brands always seem to have the right products in stock, while others struggle with overstock or empty shelves? It all comes down to demand forecasting—and in 2025, it’s getting an AI-powered upgrade. ● From guesswork to precision Traditional forecasting relies on historical sales data. AI-driven tools now go beyond that, integrating real-time factors like weather, local events, and even social media trends. The result? Forecasts with 90%+ accuracy instead of the usual 50%. ● GenAI: the next step Generative AI takes it further by analyzing unstructured data (customer reviews, trends, emerging demand signals) and answering questions in plain language. No more complex spreadsheets—just instant insights for better inventory planning. ● AI tools leading the way: ✔ Simporter – AI-powered forecasting that integrates multiple data sources to predict sales trends. ✔ Forts – uses AI for demand and supply planning, ensuring optimized inventory. ✔ ThirdEye Data – AI-driven forecasting that factors in seasonality and customer behavior. ✔ Swap – AI-based logistics platform that enhances inventory management. ✔ Nosto – AI-driven personalization that recommends the right products at the right time. ● Why this matters for #ecommerce? ✔️ Avoid stockouts that frustrate customers ✔️ Reduce excess inventory and free up cash ✔️ Adapt quickly to market shifts How are you managing demand forecasting in your store? #shopify

Not to ruin your Thursday, but there are about 68 working days left until Jan 1. Unless of course you are one of the psychos doing 996, then you have more days but your thursday is probably already awful. Which means one of two things is happening inside most companies right now: > Everyone is blissfully ignoring 2026 planning. > Or…the CFO/CEO are already sharpening their pencils to hand down growth targets that will make everyone sweat. Here’s the ugly truth: the way most SaaS companies do planning is broken. The usual cycle looks something like this: > The CEO or CFO picks a number to hit some magical valuation. > Sales & Marketing leaders are told, “Here’s your number, go figure it out.” > The number almost always requires growth rates the company has never pulled off before. > Sales & Marketing leaders backload their plans, praying momentum will magically appear. Shockingly…targets are missed, burn is too high, headcount is bloated, and the company ends up cutting back hard. Sound familiar? But it doesn’t have to go this way. Here are 5 ways to avoid it: 1. Flip the Model: Go Bottom-Up Don’t start with top-down fantasy targets. Ask GTM leaders to build a model with their actual budgets. Then ask: > What could accelerate this number? > Could earlier key hires make a difference? > What if you doubled down on a program that’s working? This gets you grounded in reality—and shows you where true upside exists. 2. Bring Everyone to the Table Planning isn’t just a Sales + Marketing exercise. Loop in: > Product → New launches, upsell opportunities, pricing/packaging shifts > Support → Can they handle the volume? How does this impact churn? > People/HR → Can you even hire fast enough to support the plan? Cross-functional input prevents “surprise problems” that derail execution later. 3. Ask the Hard Questions (Nobody Does This Enough) If your plan assumes everything goes right, you’re already screwed. Push your team: > What’s the worst-case scenario? > What are the biggest risks? > What’s keeping you up at night about this plan? A little paranoia early saves a ton of pain later. 4. Don’t Obsess Over Net-New Logos Spend as much time modeling revenue expansion from current customers as you do on acquisition. Upsell, cross-sell, reduce churn, those levers compound faster than chasing shiny new logos. 5. Remember the Human Factor A realistic model = better team morale, clearer board expectations, and tighter alignment. When people feel like the targets are achievable, execution improves. When they know they’re running at a brick wall? Burnout, misalignment, and attrition follow. Don’t let 2026 planning be another round of miss big, cut hard. You’ve got 68 working days to get this right.

The Silent Value of Store Design! Long before a product is touched, a store already speaks. The layout, lighting, acoustics, and even the scent silently shape the client’s perception. In luxury, these details are not decoration; they are strategy. I once visited two flagships on the same day. One had a strong product but poor flow. Clients walked in and immediately stalled at a wall of color, with lighting that flattened fabrics and music that clashed with the mood. The team worked hard, but the environment worked against them. The second store was different. The entrance revealed the collection gradually, inviting curiosity. Lighting elevated key pieces, seating created moments of pause, and the cash desk was hidden so that the shopping journey never felt transactional. The space itself seemed to breathe with intention. The staff were confident because the store carried half their work. Luxury retail is not just about what is sold, but how it is staged. A poorly designed store can drain the energy of even the strongest brand. A well-designed one makes every client feel as if they are part of a carefully crafted world. In luxury, the room sells before the product does. #RetailDesign #LuxuryRetail #StoreStrategy #VisualMerchandising

Demand forecasting errors silently bleed profits and cash. This document shows 7 red flags in demand forecasting and how to fix them: 1️⃣ Over-reliance on historical data ↳ How to fix: incorporate external data like market trends, competitor activity, and consumer sentiment to enrich forecasts 2️⃣ Ignoring promotions and discounts ↳ How to fix: build a promotions-adjusted forecasting model, considering historical uplift from similar campaigns 3️⃣ Forgetting cannibalization effects ↳ How to fix: model cannibalization effects to adjust forecasts for existing products 4️⃣ One-size-fits-all forecasting method ↳ How to fix: use demand segmentation (for example, high variability vs. stable demand); do not treat all SKUs equally 5️⃣ Not monitoring forecast accuracy ↳ How to Fix: track metrics like MAPE, WMAPE, bias, to improve over time 6️⃣ High forecast error with no accountability ↳ How to fix: tie accountability to S&OP (sales and operations) meetings 7️⃣ Past sales (instead of demand) consideration ↳ How to fix: make the initial predictions based on the unconstrained demand; not on sales that are impacted by cuts and out of stock situations Any others to add?

𝗦𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝗻𝘂𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭 in any good projection: calculate future Revenue. As accurate as possible. That's mandatory!! 𝗣𝗼𝗽𝘂𝗹𝗮𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀 ���️Historical Trend Analysis - Leveraging past performance to predict future trends. ✔️Market Analysis - Understanding market segments and potential impacts on revenue. ✔️Customer Segmentation - Analyzing different customer groups to tailor marketing and sales strategies. ✔️Sales Funnel Analysis - Monitoring progression through the sales funnel to anticipate revenue generation. ✔️Product Lifecycle Analysis - Assessing the stages of a product's life to forecast sales and revenue. ✔️Econometric Models - Using statistical methods to forecast revenue based on economic and market variables. 𝗢𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗻𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗱𝘀 ➡️ Driver-Based Forecasting: Focusing on key business drivers like unit sales, market share, or operational efficiency, this method provides a granular view of forecasted revenue, allowing for more targeted strategy adjustments. ➡️ Rolling Forecasts: Instead of static annual forecasts, rolling forecasts update throughout the year to reflect real-time market conditions and business outcomes, providing a more dynamic financial outlook. Curious to know how you all manage forecasting? What methods do you find most useful?

💡 𝐁𝐞𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐮𝐥 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐝𝐨𝐧’𝐭 𝐬𝐞𝐥𝐥 — 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐞𝐬. Visual merchandising is not just about creating a beautiful store image — i𝐭’𝐬 𝐚 𝐛𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲. When done correctly, it’s one of the most profitable tools you can implement to drive sales. Yet, I still see many visual merchandisers setting up stores without looking at the data: -What’s selling and what’s not -Which products have the highest margins -Which items are overstocked -What competitors are offering -How trends are shifting Too often, the focus is only on mannequins and displays. Don’t get me wrong — mannequins can help. But you could remove every mannequin from your store and still grow sales… if you place the right product, in the right spot, at the right time. That’s where data comes in. 📊 By analyzing numbers and making strategic decisions, visual merchandising becomes far more than decoration — it becomes a 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐫𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐫. This is why our freelance visual merchandisers start with data before every store visit. We focus our time on strategy and efficiency, ensuring that after a VM visit, you see not only a stronger store image but also a measurable impact on sales. 🔖 #VisualMerchandising #RetailStrategy #WholesaleBusiness #RetailTrends #DataDriven #StoreDesign