Recognizing Business Indicators

You feel it in surveys first. Then you see it in earnings. 📉 Consumer sentiment has been sliding for months. Now it’s showing up in the numbers. PepsiCo just reported a revenue and profit decline, cutting its full-year forecast. Their CFO summed it up bluntly: “Relative to where we were three months ago, we probably aren’t feeling as good about the consumer now.” Translation: : ⚠️ The vibe is off. And it’s not just Pepsi: 🌯 Chipotle posted its first same-store sales drop since 2020. 🧺 Procter & Gamble says Americans are doing less laundry to save on detergent. ✈️ American Airlines and Delta Air Lines pulled full-year guidance, citing volatile travel demand. This isn’t a single company issue - it’s a sentiment shift at scale. From burritos to beverages, laundry loads to leisure travel - the pullback is emotionally driven. Not because wallets are empty, but because confidence is. And that brings me to one of my favorite niche fascinations: The weirdest recession indicators economists have tracked over the years. The ones that don’t show up in government data sets but do show up when your friend says “I’m just rewatching The Office again” and you understand something deeper is happening. 💄 The Lipstick Index: Coined by Estee Lauder's chairman during the early 2000s downturn. When times are tough, consumers skip big luxuries and go for small pick-me-ups, like a $12 lipstick instead of a $1200 handbag. Emotional arbitrage. 🩲 The Men’s Underwear Index: Alan Greenspan said it, not me. The theory goes that men delay underwear purchases when things are bad, because it's invisible and, let’s face it, not a priority. So if sales dip, watch out. 👗 The Hemline Index: A 1920s theory suggesting hemlines rise during economic booms and fall during downturns, supposedly because modesty (and practicality?) take over. 💅 The Mani-Pedi Barometer: Beauty services are often first on the chopping block when money gets tight. If your nail tech has open slots all week, it might be time to rebalance your portfolio. 📺 The Comfort Binge Effect: Streaming platforms like Netflix have noted spikes in rewatching comfort shows (Friends, The Office) during economic downturns. Less experimentation, more regression to the emotional mean. The economy doesn’t break all at once. It frays at the edges - in nail salons, snack aisles, and streaming queues. Anyway, I’m off to rewatch Friends instead of doing my laundry and make sure my hemlines are recession-appropriate.

9 out of 10 CEOs are tracking the wrong metrics. (I learned this the hard way.) So many are flying blind. Making gut decisions. Wondering why growth feels so hard. But these 18 KPIs change everything. Here's what every CEO should be watching: REVENUE & PROFITABILITY ↳ Revenue Growth Rate shows if you're gaining momentum ↳ Gross Margin reveals your pricing power ↳ Net Profit Margin tells the real health story CASH & RUNWAY ↳ Operating Cash Flow confirms you're funding yourself ↳ Cash Runway warns when to raise or cut spend ↳ Burn Multiple shows capital efficiency to investors CUSTOMER METRICS ↳ Customer Acquisition Cost guides marketing budgets ↳ Customer Lifetime Value validates if CAC is justified ↳ LTV-to-CAC Ratio predicts long-term profitability RETENTION & GROWTH ↳ Net Revenue Retention measures product stickiness ↳ Churn Rate gives early alerts on product issues ↳ Net Promoter Score predicts retention and referrals OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY ↳ Sales Cycle Length impacts cash flow forecasts ↳ Days Sales Outstanding signals collection efficiency ↳ Employee Turnover Rate reflects culture and hiring FINANCIAL HEALTH ↳ EBITDA strips out accounting noise ↳ Growth Efficiency Ratio reveals expansion quality ↳ Average Revenue Per Account tracks upsell impact The magic isn't in tracking everything. It's in tracking the RIGHT things consistently. Most CEOs drown in vanity metrics while missing the signals that actually predict success. These 18 KPIs cut through the noise. They give you the clarity to make confident decisions. And the confidence to sleep better at night. 🔖 Save this cheat sheet. Review it monthly. ♻️ Share it. Help a CEO in your network. P.S. Which KPI do you watch most closely? Share in the comments below. Want a PDF of the 18 KPIs for CEOs? Get it free: https://lnkd.in/dhh5irfH And follow Eric Partaker for more CEO insights. ————— 📢 Ready to become a world-class CEO? I'm hosting a FREE TRAINING: "7 Steps to Become a Super Productive CEO" Thur, June 12th, 12 noon Eastern / 5pm UK time https://lnkd.in/d9BuZcrd 📌 20+ Founders & CEOs have already enrolled in our  next CEO Accelerator cohort, starting July 23rd. Earlybird offer ENDS SOON. Learn more and apply: https://lnkd.in/dwjGUkEN

In automotive, everyone stares at the same KPIs. Units. Gross. CSI. Nothing wrong with that, but KPIs only tell you where you landed. They don’t tell you how much you left on the table. Jay Abraham calls them OPIs.  Overlooked Performance Indicators. The tiny leverage points inside a dealership that almost no one pays attention to. And he’s right. Because when we started examining our own operation through that lens, here’s what we saw: Most of the biggest opportunities weren’t new initiatives. They were already happening… just not maximised. Things like: - How many service customers get an equity scan, every single day. - How quickly calls are returned. - How many unsold showroom ups get re-engaged the same day. - How many customers are actually aware they can leave service in a new car with a lower payment. - How many of yesterday’s RO customers got a follow-up. These aren’t budget items. They’re behaviour items. And when you improve several of these by just 10%? It’s not 10% growth. It compounds. Jay calls it multiplicative, and he’s not exaggerating. We saw it firsthand. No new building. No new staff. No miracle inventory. Just a team willing to question everything, tighten every gap, and squeeze every ounce of value out of the opportunities we already had. The result? One of the best months we’ve ever had. Because we got better at the invisible work that drives the visible numbers. That’s the real lesson here: The dealership doesn’t transform because of a single big move. It transforms because the team stops walking past the small ones. If you’re running a dealership, here’s a question worth asking: What are the OPIs in your business and who’s watching them?

GD&T (Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing) is a symbolic language used on engineering drawings and models to describe the size, form, orientation, and location of features on a part. It ensures that parts are manufactured within specified limits while maintaining functional performance. Key Concepts: 1. Symbols: GD&T uses specific symbols to represent geometric features (e.g., flatness, straightness, circularity, etc.). 2. Datums: Reference points, lines, or planes from which measurements are made. 3. Tolerance: Specifies the allowable variation in dimensions and geometry. 4. Modifiers: Indicate additional requirements like maximum material condition (MMC), least material condition (LMC), or regardless of feature size (RFS). 5. Functional Fittings: GD&T ensures that parts fit and function as intended even if they are slightly different from the nominal dimensions. It is widely used in industries like aerospace, automotive, and manufacturing to communicate precise requirements, improve consistency, and minimize errors in part fabrication. In conclusion, Geometric Dimensioning and Tolerancing (GD&T) is a crucial system in modern engineering that provides a clear and standardized way to define and control the geometry of parts. By using symbols and annotations, GD&T ensures precise manufacturing, reduces ambiguity, and improves the functionality and interchangeability of components. It enables designers and manufacturers to communicate complex design intent, minimize errors, and maintain consistent quality, which ultimately enhances the efficiency of production processes and product performance. Its application across industries such as automotive, aerospace, and manufacturing highlights its importance in achieving high precision and reliability in engineering designs.

The Sahm Rule is sending a false signal. As a lagging indicator, the Sahm Rule flashes red four months into a recession, on average. It is flashing red now, but we are not in a recession ... yet. Here’s how we can do better. The Sahm Rule gauges the unemployment rate’s three-month moving average relative to its low over the last 12 months. When the three-month moving average rises by half a percentage point or more over that 12-month low, it triggers the Sahm Rule alarm. Unlike the inverted yield curve, which gives a LEAD of six to 23 months prior to a recession, the Sahm Rule LAGS a recession’s onset by two to eight months. For example, when the NBER dated a business cycle peak in December 2007, the yield curve had already been inverted for almost two years, but the Sahm Rule wasn’t triggered until June 2008, when the May 2008 unemployment data became available. So, the Sahm Rule was at least five months late to the Great Recession. Based on the Sahm Rule’s four-month average lag, its recent triggering would indicate the U.S. may have been in recession since March. I don’t buy it, and I don’t think many others do either. Of course, the NBER can be slow to date when recessions begin; it took almost a full year to declare the December 2007 peak. So, the Sahm Rule has some utility simply by not being as slow. But by relying on the unemployment rate, the Sahm Rule introduces a distortion. Suppose unemployment is 1% over the past year but averages 2% over the last three months. The Sahm Rule alarm would sound, but 2% unemployment is hardly consistent with a recession. Something similar is happening today. The Sahm Rule has been triggered, but unemployment is far from recession territory. There is a fix. We need to consider the level of employment. The NBER analyzes both the unemployment rate (household survey) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs, establishment survey), according to its website. Comparing year-over-year changes in NFPs eliminates the level bias. The chart below shows negative YoY growth is consistent with a recession. We are nowhere near a recession based on payrolls. Indeed, NFPs would have to drop by close to 1.5% and almost 2.5 million Americans would have to lose their jobs to go to code red. If NFPs and the Sahm Rule can only tell us when we are in a recession after the fact, what employment indicators should we watch to see if a recession is imminent? The most obvious is CFO employment growth expectations surveys. Parsing the existing data can also be useful. For example, temps are usually laid off before full-time employees. Participation rates and U1 to U6 employment measures may also offer some insights. Finally, expected duration of unemployment, as estimated by looking at the ratio of job openings to the unemployed, may also be helpful. And a more comprehensive approach is on the horizon: I am currently developing an employment-based indicator that will address the Sahm Rule’s flaws. So stay tuned.

Measuring the art market rebound Last week, the modern and contemporary art sales in New York showed the signs of recovery everyone had been hoping for for many months. There are two such “marquee week” sales every year in New York, in May and in November. Tracking a few key data sets remains a straightforward way to measure the market’s dynamics over time: ▪️total hammer sales in $; ▪️total sales as a % of total pre-sale low estimates; ▪️sell-through rate (% of lots offered that successfully sold); ▪️and what I call the “performance index,” calculated by combining the two latter indicators. I find it useful because it reflects the strength of demand and the ability of the auction house’s teams to “sell the sale”. As shown in the attached slides, all four indicators for Christie's November 2025 sales were up compared with recent seasons, reaching their strongest levels since November 2022, when Christie’s sold the Paul Allen collection and the market was still close to its peak. The “performance index” in particular reached 0.93 — up from 0.79 in May 2025. It is still too early to know whether this rebound will prove durable, but the signals from the November 2025 sales are undeniably positive!

The earnings cycle is turning in support of a catch-up trade for non-mega-cap stocks, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve easing interest rates in September might be the spark needed for the 493 and small caps to stage a 2H rebound. On July 11, Small caps had their third-strongest gain relative to large caps since 2000. Other surges of similar size started recovery rallies in October 2011 and March 2020. Small caps jumped 3.5% on July 11, outperforming large caps by 4.4% in their biggest single-day relative gain since 2008 and greatest absolute increase since November as easing CPI sparked hopes a Fed cut is coming. The one-day surge may bode well for gains to extend. Since 2000, there were eight times where small caps outgained large caps by more than 300 bps. In the month following those instances, small and large caps gained 8% and 6.5%, respectively. Bloomberg Intelligence Michael Casper, CFA Bloomberg Small/Large Caps:

In case you haven't noticed, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have started posting new recruiting roles across Europe and North America. Here's why I find that encouraging: Recruiting teams have been largely impacted by declining hiring needs since 2022, so these new role postings suggest something is shifting. It could hint at broader recovery signs heading into 2025.  So what will next year look like? Political changes in the US and Europe also seem to be boosting business confidence, with many companies expressing cautious optimism. If this continues, it could encourage further hiring and accelerate changes in the job market. Of course, there are still plenty of headwinds. The impact of AI, return-to-office mandates, and shifting employee expectations around flexibility are all in play, but if the market becomes employee-driven again, the risks for businesses are significant. Studies have found that top performers leave after layoffs (Source: BBC, 2023) and attrition overall can increase by 75%. Add to this the pressure of return-to-office mandates, which are clashing with employees’ expectations, and we may see a wave of resignations if the market rebounds.  I’ve also seen application volumes spike since 2022 in many businesses, and in a more competitive talent market, engaging that talent could become challenging. Preparing for proactive outreach will be crucial for recruiting teams to stay ahead. While it’s too early to call this a recovery, the signs are worth watching. Whether this marks the start of sustained growth or cautious optimism, businesses that prepare now will be better equipped to navigate a potentially transformative 2025.  (I’ll drop some links to the recent job postings in the comments later today for anyone looking.)

Your Procurement Cycle is a Minefield of Risks. Are You Walking Blind? Procurement Excellence | 17 JAN 2026 - Procurement always navigates hidden risks that can derail projects, inflate costs, and tarnish reputations. Ignoring them? That’s the real risk. Here are 7 CRITICAL risks lurking in your procurement cycle + how to defuse them: #1. Performance Risk ↳Suppliers underdelivering on quality/timelines. ↳Fix: Clear KPIs. Penalty clauses. Regular performance reviews. #2.Specification Risk ↳Vague requirements lead to wrong deliverables. ↳Fix:Collaborate with stakeholders upfront & freeze specs before sourcing. #3. Supplier Financial Risk ↳Bankrupt suppliers = halted operations. ↳Fix:Run credit checks, diversify suppliers, demand financial disclosures. #4. Reputation Risk (ESG) ↳Child labor or pollution in supply chain = brand crisis. ↳Fix: Supplier ESG screenings. Audits. Sustainability clauses. #5. Price Volatility Risk ↳Market swings crush budgets. ↳Fix: Fixed-price contracts. Hedging strategies. Cost-indexed clauses. #6. Fraud & Corruption Risk ↳Kickbacks, fake invoicing, collusion. ↳Fix: Segregate duties. Whistleblower policies. AI-powered anomaly detection. #7. Contract Leakage Risk ↳Unused discounts, auto-renewals, scope creep. ↳Fix:Centralized contract repository. Milestone alerts. Spend analytics. #Bonus I: Over-Reliance Risk ↳One supplier holds 80% of your spend. ↳Fix: Strategic supplier diversification. #Bonus II: Cybersecurity Risk ↳Suppliers accessing your systems >>data breaches. ↳Fix:Vendor security assessments. Zero-trust architecture. #Bonus III: Supply Disruption Risk ↳Natural disasters, geopolitics or supplier failures. ↳Fix: Dual sourcing, Safety stock & Real-time supply chain monitoring. Risk Mitigation Playbook: ✅ Proactive: Map risks at EVERY stage ✅ Use AI for predictive analytics, blockchain for traceability. ✅ Train & empower teams to spot red flags early. ✅ Collaborate & partner with Legal, Finance, Operations. Risk-aware procurement NOT about avoiding suppliers Procurement can’t own risk alone! Build resilient, ethical & agile supply chains that drive sustainable value. What risks keep YOU up at night? ♻️ Share to help someone in your network. ➕️ Follow Frederick for more content like this. #ProcurementExcellence #RiskManagement #Leadership

Missing buying signals is costing you revenue. Every day, buyers send signals they’re ready—or getting ready—to make a purchase. If you don’t know how to recognize or act on these, you’re losing deals to competitors who do. Understanding buying signals helps you engage buyers at the right time, with the right message, so you can close more deals. 👉 Understanding the 3 levels of #BuyingSignals: - Level 1: Future Need - At this level, the buyer has a problem but isn’t aware of it yet. These signals show that the buyer may need your solution in the future, even if they’re not ready right now. 📣 The buyer is facing challenges, asking questions, or raising concerns, but they’re not searching for solutions yet. How to Use It: Educate the buyer. Share insights that bring their problem into focus. Let them know their issue could worsen or better options exist but don’t push for an immediate sale. When to Act: Build a relationship and position yourself as a trusted resource. Stay top of mind for when they’re ready. - Level 2: Problem Acknowledgment -   Here, the buyer knows they have a problem but isn’t sure how serious it is or if it’s worth solving. They may also be unsure of the best solution. 📣The buyer is asking more detailed questions, engaging with content, or showing some interest, but they’re not ready to commit. How to Use It: Help them understand the significance of the problem. Share case studies and expert advice to show the impact of solving it. When to Act: Engage thoughtfully. Dig deeper into their pain points and show them the value of addressing the issue soon. - Level 3: Active Exploration - Now, the buyer is researching solutions and comparing options. They’re showing clear interest and could be ready to make a decision. 📣 The buyer is downloading multiple pieces of content, repeatedly visiting key product pages, or directly asking for demos or pricing info. How to Use It: Act now! Be responsive, personalize your approach, and provide details to guide them toward choosing your solution. When to Act: Immediately. Buyers at this stage are ready to make a decision, and you need to be proactive. 👉 Recognizing these three levels of buying signals allows you to adjust your approach to where the buyer is in their journey. This ensures you’re not pushing too hard too soon—or missing the chance to close a deal when they’re ready. Knowing how and when to engage is the key to earning their business. P.S. Who am I SASSING in this pic?!! Drop your best guess in the comments. -- Enjoyed this post? Click here to follow me on LinkedIn 👉lnkd.in/emVkCrf3 to hit follow & ring my 🔔 to stay updated about my best content! #SignalBasedSelling #IntentData #SalesTriggers #ValueBasedSegmentation