Navigating Competitive Markets

The Home Depot and Lowe's Companies, Inc. report next week. Our data suggests something unusual may be occurring (sneak peak below). Here are ~7 things our team are watching for on their earnings call: 1) Pro customer shift: Pro contractors shift where they spend for a variety of reasons, including when conditions soften. It seems something else is happening now - the FLOW of contractor purchase changes is unusual (published in our BPO research this month): When contractors spend MORE at Home Depot, those dollars are shifting out of K&B dealers (1st), Manu-direct (2nd) and Pro Dealers like ABC (3rd). Lowes is 4th on that list. When contractors spend LESS at Home Depot, the $$ flow to Lowes (1st), then BFS, then other competitors. Last on the list is other online retailers. Think about that for a minute. The industry used to imagine two major retailers going head-to-head, but it appears that something else is (potentially) occurring here. Remember that this is among pro customers. HD focused on Complex Pro as a key part of their corp strategy, acquired SRS and Construction Resources- too soon to tell if those actions are behind the above, but message seems to be ‘this is strategically critical to watch’. Related to that: 2) E-commerce growth - gaining share of building products (non-trivial gains). Pro contractors and builders report shifting more purchases to E-Commerce and Manu-direct. We are keenly watching both retailer conversion of E-Commerce. 3) DIY vs PRO mix – some projects scale down. ‘Mid-range’ remodels become smaller DIY projects. 4) Inventory (pre-buy) ahead of tariffs and soft spring housing season. Q2 is the real adventure here, which we hope to get some visibility. As a second-order effect, channel ‘destocking’ could put some manufacturers in a tricky position in Q2. Home Depot/Lowes have a lot of leverage in line reviews, and we expect adjustments to occur. 5) There is a case to be made that the most tech-forward companies with the best data are the most able to navigate volatile pricing. After all, they can measure elasticity of substitution between categories. BTW – this is probably something QXO is aware of too. 6) Supplier challenges - Related to above, some suppliers struggled to import amid recent (April) tariffs. The financials of trying to import a container of products from China was much more volatile than some realize. This particularly impacts smaller sourced or private label brands. Who do you think is best positioned to adjust? 7) Remember that Pro contractors who previously never shopped big box got hooked in 2021 on ‘price checking’ retailer apps, even as they reported shifting purchases back to lumberyards in 2022-23 as supply chains normalized. Now the industry is softening/shifting, we find out if pro contractors still can be swayed. Given all that is moving, we are publishing this to BPO clients for the major channels. Much more to untangle.

It is the number one question among digital banks: how do you become profitable? Here’s my take on what actually works. 𝟭. A customer proposition that addresses core 𝗽𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀 of traditional banking, across both product and customer experience. 𝟮. 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘀 𝗰𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗺𝗶𝘇𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, leveraging social media and gamification. 𝟯. Low customer acquisition costs combined with high brand awareness, driven by 𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗼𝘃𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀 (digital-only, social-media-first, targeted campaigns, search and app-store optimization, rewards, etc.). 𝟰. Payment services are not enough. 𝗟𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 (interest income) is critical for profitability, which is why embedded approaches such as BNPL are especially attractive. 𝟱. The ability to generate 𝗳𝗲𝗲-𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 by moving beyond the initial freemium model to a setup that charges transactional, account-based, FX, or penalty fees for value-added services, including subscriptions. 𝟲. A smart 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 that leverages the power of networks from a dual perspective: aggregation and referral (referral fees are a significant revenue driver). 𝟳. An 𝗲𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘆𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗺 𝗽𝗹𝗮𝘆 that aims to build loyalty by creating a one-stop-shop, and subsequently monetizing the additional services (and revenue streams) that evolve around servicing customers on a lifestyle basis (beyond banking: transportation, shopping, dining, telecom, travel, etc.) 𝟴. A focus (and the associated know-how) on servicing dedicated 𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗮𝗹𝘀 (e.g. wealth management, SMEs), while expanding into adjacent and complementary offerings (e.g. insurance, investments, treasury). 𝟵. Ruthless 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗹 through operational leverage, automation, straight-through processing, and a technology stack designed to scale marginal costs towards zero. 𝟭𝟬. A clear 𝗳𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗯𝗮𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲-𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆, particularly around deposits versus wholesale funding, cost of funds, and liquidity management. 𝟭𝟭. Risk management and 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝘄𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗶𝘁𝘆, especially in credit, fraud, and AML.   𝟭𝟮. 𝗥𝗲𝗴𝘂𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝘆 as a competitive advantage, not a constraint: smart jurisdiction choice, passporting, licensing sequencing, and proactive supervisory engagement. 𝟭𝟯. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗳𝗼𝗰𝘂𝘀, including clear customer segmentation and the willingness to exit products that fail to meet profitability thresholds. 𝟭𝟰. Organizational structure and 𝗲𝘅𝗲𝗰𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝗰𝗶𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲, with small, empowered teams, clear accountability, and fast decision-making. Most digital banks don’t fail because they lack ideas. They fail because they lack a proper profitability play. Which ones have you seen work in practice? Opinions: my own, Graphic source: C-Innovation 𝐒𝐮𝐛𝐬𝐜𝐫𝐢𝐛𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐲 𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐬𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg

The UK is losing tens of thousands of female entrepreneurs. Government data shows that only 14% of SMEs are female-led - down from 19% in 2021. That drop equates to tens of thousands fewer women running businesses across Britain. Why is this happening? - Rising taxes: now cited as the #1 barrier to growth, above energy or competition. - Wage pressures: hitting hospitality, retail, education and health, sectors where female founders are most present. - Capital barriers: with less than 2% of UK venture funding going to all-female teams, investors just aren’t backing women enough. If women started and scaled businesses at the same rate as men, the UK economy would gain £250 billion. We need to stop treating women-led firms as a DE&I “nice to have.” They deliver stronger returns, drive jobs, and fuel growth in overlooked sectors. If we want a thriving economy, we must change the system - tax policy, childcare, capital access, to make it possible for more women to build and grow. Because every lost female entrepreneur is a lost opportunity for Britain. 📷 With Hannah Bernard OBE, my co-chair at the Invest in Women Taskforce

Headlines can be deceiving. A recent report pointed out that Singapore saw 3,000 restaurant closures in 2024, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. In the same period, there were 3,793 new openings, representing a roughly 26% net increase. So what happens next? 🥙 Rising Competition Amid High Costs: Even though the net number of establishments grew, existing restaurants face mounting pressure. Operational costs are higher than ever, rent continues to climb, ingredient prices remain volatile, and wages are increasing as businesses compete for scarce manpower. 🥙 Economic Uncertainty Adding to the Strain: The global and local economic outlooks are uncertain. As disposable incomes tighten, consumers might dine out less frequently or spend more cautiously. This softening demand hits even harder when the market is flooded with new players, forcing restaurants to work harder to attract a shrinking pool of customers. 🥙 Impact of Overseas Operators: A significant chunk of these new openings appears to come from well-funded overseas operators, where chains or brands that already have established playbooks and deep pockets are entering the market. While these entrants can bring fresh concepts and experiences, they often have the financial backing to weather losses for longer periods. Local operators, meanwhile, can end up squeezed, struggling to compete on marketing, pricing, and economies of scale. So, the question isn’t just “how many restaurants open or close,” but rather, “how can businesses adapt to survive these intense pressures?” With the long-term sustainability of the F&B industry in Singapore we need to be rethinking operational efficiency to exploring new revenue streams and customer engagement strategies, the path forward will require resilience, innovation, and perhaps a collective effort from the entire industry. As we continue to see shifts in the F&B landscape, we must also ask ourselves: what can be done to support this vital part of our economy, or will it collapse? Story by Jieying Yip.

Your restaurant is overstaffed. Just like it should be. And it's the smartest financial decision you'll ever make. I know. Sounds insane. Every consultant preaches lean staffing. Every owner obsesses over labor percentage. Every manager cuts to the bone. Meanwhile, the best operators I know run 2-3% higher labor. And absolutely dominate their markets. ⸻ Here's The Math That'll Make You Rethink Everything Restaurant doing $2.5M annually. Running 28% labor vs 25%. That's $75,000 "extra" in payroll. Expensive? Let's see what it buys: • Zero doubles = fresh staff, better service • Proper training time = fewer mistakes • Coverage for call-outs = no panic mode • Happy team = lower turnover Now the real numbers: Turnover drops from 75% to 40%. 35 fewer hires × $3,000 = $105,000 saved. You just made $30,000 by "overspending." ⸻ What Actually Happens When You Staff Properly I watched this transformation at a 200-seat steakhouse: Before: Skeleton crew • Servers with 8-table sections • Bartenders making salads • Managers expediting • 25% labor cost • Chaos every night After: Full staffing • Servers with 5-table sections • Dedicated support staff • Managers actually managing • 28% labor cost • Smooth service The results? Average check: Up 22% Table turns: Up 15% Guest complaints: Down 70% Revenue: Up $400K annually That 3% labor investment returned 16% more sales. ⸻ The Hidden Cost of Lean Staffing Here's what lean staffing actually costs: Your best server quits: $8,000 to replace Two bad Yelp reviews: $15,000 in lost sales Manager burnout: Priceless Guest never returns: $1,200 annually Add it up. That's $25,000+ per incident. How many incidents per month? Meanwhile, properly staffed restaurants: Staff stays years, not months. Guests become regulars. Managers have time to improve operations. Everyone makes more money. ⸻ The Strategy Nobody Talks About Stop managing to minimum coverage. Start staffing for maximum performance. Tuesday lunch needs 3 servers? Schedule 4. Saturday night needs 8? Schedule 10. "But Jim, that's expensive!" No. Turnover is expensive. Bad service is expensive. Stressed teams are expensive. Proper staffing is an investment. ⸻ Here's Your New Playbook Calculate your true turnover cost. Add your lost sales from poor service. Factor in manager burnout. Now compare that to 2-3% higher labor. Which costs more? The restaurants crushing it post-COVID? They figured this out. They're not managing labor percentage. They're managing guest experience. And banking the difference. 👊🏻 P.S. Still cutting staff to hit your labor target? Your competition is fully staffed and taking your customers. P.P.S. Want to see the staffing matrix that helped that steakhouse add $400K? Comment "STAFFING" below. Sometimes more is actually more. #RestaurantManagement #LaborCost #RestaurantSuccess

Before the "Scramble for Africa": What Business Leaders Can Learn from 1880 This map shows Africa in 1880 - before European colonization redrew the continent's borders. Look at the complexity: hundreds of kingdoms, empires, city-states, and trading networks that had operated successfully for centuries. The Business Reality: -What colonial powers saw: "Undeveloped territory" -What actually existed: Sophisticated trade networks, established commercial relationships, and economic systems -The Sokoto Caliphate controlled trade routes larger than modern Germany. -The Kingdom of Kongo had commercial relationships spanning continents. -Ethiopian Empire maintained independence and international trade partnerships. The Modern Business Parallel: After working across 24 African countries, I see foreign companies making the same mistake colonial powers made in 1880: -Assuming complexity means chaos. -Mistaking unfamiliarity for dysfunction. -Overlooking existing systems that actually work. What This Map Teaches Modern Businesses Each colored region represents: -Established trade relationships -Existing distribution networks -Functioning governance structures -Cultural and commercial protocols Modern equivalent: Every African country has complex stakeholder networks, traditional business relationships, and informal systems that drive commerce. The Strategic Mistake: -Companies that ignore these existing networks and try to impose external systems often fail spectacularly. -Winners: Understand and integrate with existing structures -Losers: Assume they need to build everything from scratch The 1880 Lesson Applied Today: Just as this map shows intricate, interconnected kingdoms and trade routes, modern Africa has sophisticated business ecosystems that foreign companies must understand, not replace. The question isn't how to penetrate African markets. The question is how to become part of existing African business networks. Understanding this difference determines whether you succeed like the few respectful trading partners of 1880, or fail like the colonial projects that eventually collapsed under their own assumptions. Which approach will your company take? #AfricaStrategy #BusinessHistory #MarketEntry #CulturalIntelligence #TradeNetworks #MrExportToAfrica

📊 This is the key chart in investment markets right now, as “reciprocal tariffs” take effect. It shows the market sell off from the perspective of stock (white) and bond (blue) investors 📉📈 The combo of falling stocks and sticky bond yields highlights the market is factoring in a “stagflation lite” situation 😮 The “tariff shock” is much bigger than expected, dragging growth lower and pushing inflation higher in the short term. Beyond that, recession risk has risen materially Investors are looking for policy puts. But stagflation-lite means the Fed is in a bind. And the Treasury curve is bear steepening Even after the stock sell off, US market PEs still look elevated versus historic norms (broad market on 21x, NASDAQ 25x forward EPS) ❓And what’s different this time is that bond yields usually act as a buffer in the sell off. Stabilising the situation for stocks, and other risk assets, by helping to balance relative valuations. But - as the chart shows - today’s supply shock compromises that feature of the system 💡 That makes today’s situation unusual and tricky, but one that is critical for investors to understand #stocks #economy #investing #tarrifs #bonds

For FMCG brands, shelf space is the battleground. And winning it comes down to one thing: trust. Retailers don’t just want more products. They want partners who help grow the category, not just their own brand. The good news? Smaller and challenger brands can earn that trust, even against the biggest competitors. Here are 5 practical steps to start earning retailer trust and winning at the shelf: 🍏 Know Your Shopper Better Than Anyone Retailers want suppliers who can answer: Who’s buying, why, and how often? Use loyalty data, shopper panels, or in-store observations to uncover real insights. Turn these into actionable recommendations – like filling a family meal gap or boosting impulse purchases. Specific, evidence-based insights build confidence. 📈 Show How You’ll Grow The Category It’s not just about your sales. Show how your brand drives incremental growth: attracting new shoppers, increasing basket size, or boosting repeat purchases. Back it with proof – case studies, trials, or comparable market data. Retailers want partners who expand the pie, not just take share. 🤝 Make It Easy To Do Business With You Reliability is table stakes. Flawless logistics, accurate forecasting, and clear communication matter. Add marketing support, promo plans, and shared KPIs. Think of yourself as an extension of their team – the smoother the process, the more they trust you with premium shelf space. 🚀 Bring Meaningful Innovation Innovation isn’t flashy packaging or token launches. Solve real shopper problems and refresh the category: health-conscious options, convenient meal solutions, eco-friendly packaging. When your NPD makes shopping easier or more enjoyable, retailers see real value beyond novelty. 💡 Play The Long Game Consistency builds trust. Deliver quality, insight, and support year after year. Focus on long-term partnerships, not short-term wins. Think regular business reviews, joint marketing, and measured promotions that grow both your brand and the category sustainably. The brands that win retailer trust aren’t the loudest or cheapest. They make the buyer’s job easier, help categories grow, and show up reliably every single time. 👉 Ask yourself: Is your brand truly adding value to your retailer’s category… or just taking up space? 📩 DM me to discuss how you can win at the shelf 🔁 Share if you believe trust is the ultimate currency with retailers. 👥 Tag a brand you think does this well. #FMCG #RetailerTrust #BrandStrategy #ShelfSpace #Innovation #AustralianRetail #CategoryGrowth #MarketingLeadership

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗛𝗮𝗿𝘀𝗵 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗟𝗶𝗳𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗰𝗿𝘂𝗶𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁—𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝗙𝗶𝘅 𝗜𝘁 For years, insurers have relied on the "law of large numbers"—hire hundreds, expect most to fail, and hope a few top performers stick. This model is not just inefficient; it’s unsustainable. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸: 80% of new agents quit within the first year.  Firms burn thousands per hire in acquisition costs, only to see mass attrition. And Gen Z won’t tolerate a career model based on high failure rates. If the industry doesn’t evolve, talented young professionals will go elsewhere—to fintech, wealth advisory, or digital consulting roles offering better stability, tools, and a clearer path to success. 𝙎𝙤, 𝙬𝙝𝙖𝙩 𝙢𝙞𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙠𝙚𝙨 𝙙𝙤 𝙞𝙣𝙨𝙪𝙧𝙚𝙧𝙨 𝙢𝙖𝙠𝙚 𝙞𝙣 𝙖𝙙𝙫𝙞𝙨𝙤𝙧 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙧𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 ? 𝟭. 𝗠𝗮𝘀𝘀 𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗹𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁  ❌ Most firms still hire in bulk, hoping a few will survive.   ✅ Fix: Shift to quality ,with clear success criteria and invest in them properly. 𝟮. 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 "𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗝𝗼𝗯" 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲-𝗟𝗮𝗯𝗲𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗕𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗢𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝘆  ❌ Gen Z doesn’t want just a commission job ✅ Fix: Reframe the role to a business with a purpose, yet flexible carrier paths 𝟯. 𝗖𝗼𝗹𝗱 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗜𝗻𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗮𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗔𝗜 & 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴  ❌ Gen Z won’t waste time on cold calls and outdated networking ✅ Fix: Train agents in social selling, AI-powered lead generation, and automated client nurturing. 𝟰. 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗼𝗻-𝗢𝗻𝗹𝘆 𝗣𝗮𝘆 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗣𝘂𝘀𝗵𝗲𝘀 𝗔𝗱𝘃𝗶𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀 𝗢𝘂𝘁  ❌ New agents struggle to survive on 100% commissions, leading to high first-year dropout.  ✅ Fix: Offer hybrid pay models to create financial stability. 𝟱. 𝗡𝗼 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗻𝗰𝘆 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀  ❌ Firms oversell the dream but hide the high failure rates, leading to disillusionment.  ✅ Fix:Be upfront about income variability, early struggles, and long-term rewards. . 𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙂𝙧𝙖𝙣𝙙 𝙎𝙤𝙡𝙪𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣: 𝙖 𝙎𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙧, 𝙈𝙤𝙧𝙚 𝙎𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙧𝙪𝙞𝙩𝙢𝙚𝙣𝙩 𝙈𝙤𝙙𝙚𝙡 ✅𝗛𝗶𝗿𝗲 𝗙𝗲𝘄𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀, 𝗕𝘂𝘁 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗠𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗺  ✅𝗣𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝟭𝟮 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵𝘀 ✅𝗥𝗲𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗰𝗲 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗗𝗶𝗴𝗶𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗚𝗿𝗼𝘄𝘁𝗵 𝗦𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀  ✅ 𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗣𝘂𝗿𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗿𝗲, 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝗝𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗦𝗮𝗹𝗲𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 Are insurers ready to stop playing the volume game and start recruiting for real business success? IMHO, that’s a major reinvention of mindset. Attached is a Recruitment Funnel study I completed with available market data. Connect or DM me if you'd like to discuss this.

In countries where trust takes longer to build (as is the case of most Asian markets), the most effective approach I’ve found is to bring real business to the table without expecting anything in return. If someone seems valuable, introduce them to a client, a partner, or an investor. Don’t ask for a favor or a cut. Just deliver. If they choose to reciprocate, that’s a green flag. If they don’t, that’s fine too because the point isn’t immediate return. It’s accelerating trust. All other forms of relationship-building, e.g., dinners, drinks, small talk, are way less valuable in comparison to this. Nothing builds goodwill like showing you can make people money while operating with integrity.