Market Analysis Reports

One of the highest-profile copper bulls is back predicting new price records, as Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs drains global stocks and creates what he sees as unprecedented opportunities for trading profit.  Kostas Bintas became one of the best-known metals traders during his years building Trafigura Group’s copper book into the world’s largest, before his departure in late 2023. Now spearheading a push into metals at energy trader Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., he is again calling for copper to surge to record highs, up by as much as a third from current levels. The huge amounts of metal being drawn into the US will leave the rest of the world — and crucially, top consumer China — perilously short, Bintas said in an interview.“We think there is something exceptional happening in the copper market,” he said. “Is it unreasonable to expect a copper price of $12,000 or $13,000? I’m struggling to put a number on it because this has never happened before.” The shift of inventory to the US means the Chinese copper market will be left with insufficient stocks, Bintas said. Chinese buyers — who account for more than half of global demand — will be forced to compete with the US market. At the same time, the large volumes of scrap copper that typically flow out of the US have effectively dried up.“China has been successful historically in rejecting high prices,” said Bintas. “This is the first time in recent history that another market is taking tons away from the Chinese market. That’s why it’s uncharted territory.” Mercuria estimates that about 500,000 tons of copper is heading to the US, most of which is already on the way. That compares with normal monthly imports of about 70,000 tons. Traders are shipping metal to opportunistically profit from the large price differential, as well as frontloading already-planned shipments in order to clear customs before any potential tariffs are imposed. #copper #mercuria #commoditytrading #lme https://lnkd.in/eZA-GkJP

Silver has turned out to be the best-performing asset this year and many of my clients and partners have been asking me about its outlook.
 
Here are some interesting facts: - Silver prices rose 21% (average) to the highest since 2012. - ⁠Fourth consecutive deficit: 148.9Moz (15% of global supply). - ⁠Mine production: 819.7Moz (+0.9%), Recycling: 193.9Moz (+6%, 12-year high). - ⁠Industrial demand: record 680.5Moz (+4%), led by solar, EVs, electronics. - Jewelry +3% (India, Thailand), Silverware -2%, Photography -7%. - ⁠⁠Coin & bar demand -22% (5-year low), but India up 21%. - ⁠Silver ETPs saw first inflows since 2021 (+6.3% to 1,038Moz).
 
Its clear, the future of silver is no more just in jewellery boxes….
 
The silver market in 2025 is still expected to see another significant deficit, but the interesting part is where the demand is coming from. Demand from jewellery and silverware is slowing, while industries like green energy, electric vehicles, and AI are using more silver than ever.
 
As per world silver survey report; between 2021 and 2025, global silver shortages will cross 800 million ounces. That’s not just a market statistic, it’s a sign that silver is moving from being an luxury or ornamental metal to a strategic resource powering tomorrow’s economy.
 
To me it’s fascinating to see how a metal once just used for jewellery is now playing a key role in sustainability and technology.
 
Source: The World Silver Survey 2025

India's Critical Mineral Paradox: Sitting on a Goldmine While Importing at Premium Prices I’ve spent time building businesses across consumer tech, telecom, and industrial sectors. Reading Alkesh Kumar Sharma’s strategic analysis on critical minerals was a wake-up call: India is racing toward clean energy leadership while dangerously dependent on imports for the very minerals that make it possible. Here’s the link: https://lnkd.in/dpjKHMsb This isn't just policy. It's national security and controlling our destiny in the 21st century economy. The vulnerability: India is 100% dependent on imports for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, over 90% for Rare Earth Elements. China controls 60% of global REE production and 85% of processing. We're targeting 500 GW renewable energy and net zero by 2070, while handing veto power over our clean energy future to geopolitical competitors. Having run P&Ls across markets, I know 100% import dependence isn't a supply chain. It's a strategic chokepoint. But India is sitting on untapped wealth. Geological Survey identified 5.9 million tonnes of lithium in J&K, significant REE deposits in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Yet mining contributes just 2.5% to GDP versus 13.6% in Australia. We have only 1% of global REE processing capacity. The government launched the National Critical Minerals Mission with ₹34,300 crore and auctioned 20 mineral blocks. The 2023 Mines Act opened private exploration. But execution determines everything. The urban goldmine: India generates 4 million tonnes of e-waste annually, only 10% formally recycled. Inside? The same minerals we're importing at massive cost. Attero proves what's possible. This Noida-based deeptech company achieves over 98% extraction efficiency in recovering rare earths like neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium, the exact elements we currently import. With over 200 patents filed and strong profitability, Attero’s revenue crossed approximately ₹1,000 crore in FY25, growing more than 50% year-on-year. The company works with all leading auto and battery manufacturers and is now expanding capacity sixfold to process 3 lakh tonnes annually, backed by significant capital infusion across India, Poland, and the US. India banned black mass exports, powder from shredded batteries we exported as cheap scrap to China, Korea, Japan who sold it back at 15-20x the price. This ban forces domestic refining. Attero proves we have the technology. The window is closing. If we don't build resilient supply chains through domestic mining, processing, and recycling, we're building our clean energy future on someone else's foundation. We have deposits, waste streams, and companies like Attero proving Indian technology competes globally. What we need is execution speed. #CriticalMinerals #CleanEnergy #AtmanirbharBharat #Sustainability #India

Gold and silver snap back sharply after record-breaking run. After weeks of relentless upside, precious metals finally cracked under the weight of positioning, macro relief, and stretched technicals. Gold fell as much as 6.3% - the sharpest drop in 12 years - while silver plunged 8.7%, marking its steepest decline since February 2021. A combination of drivers triggered the selloff: easing US-China trade tensions, a stronger dollar, seasonal cooling in Indian demand, and the absence of CFTC positioning data due to the US government shutdown. The market, already showing signs of being overbought, saw a wave of profit-taking as momentum faltered. Silver’s retreat followed a historic squeeze earlier this year, with vaults in London and Shanghai now seeing heavy outflows. Volatility spiked sharply, with traders actively hedging or capitalizing on the reversal - over 2 million gold ETF options traded late last week, setting a fresh record. Still, ETF gold holdings remain below historical peaks, suggesting further upside isn’t off the table. But with macro data releases delayed and speculative longs possibly overextended, the risk of deeper corrections remains in play. Buckle up! #Gold #Silver #Metals #Commodities #Macro #CentralBanks

Analyzing gold prices from a multi-currency perspective reveals interesting insights into the precious metal's value relative to its previous cycle highs - especially now given most are at recent highs after experiencing 2 fantastic years. Several key factors contribute to the variations in gold prices across different currency denominations. Exchange rate movements, inflation and monetary policy, economic stability and investor sentiment, market liquidity and access, and supply and demand dynamics all play a significant role in determining the relative price of gold in different currencies. Gold is primarily traded in U.S. dollars, and its price in other currencies can be heavily influenced by changes in exchange rates. If the dollar strengthens against other currencies, gold becomes more expensive in those other currencies, and vice versa. Different countries experience varying rates of inflation, which can affect the real buying power of their currencies and influence gold prices. Central banks may adjust monetary policies in response to inflation, which can impact interest rates and subsequently affect gold prices. In regions experiencing economic uncertainty or instability, investors may turn to gold as a safe haven asset, thereby driving up its price in that local currency. The ease of trading gold and accessing gold markets can also influence its price in different currencies. Global supply and demand for gold can affect its price worldwide, but local factors can also play a significant role. In conclusion, the relative price of gold in different currencies compared to its previous cycle highs is a complex interplay of global economic trends, local market conditions, and broader geopolitical factors. Understanding these factors is crucial for investors looking to make informed decisions about their investments in gold.

If this isn’t a wake up call, I don’t know what is. China imposing restrictions on the REEs export can be very difficult for India. Rare earth elements aren't rare. But access to them is. And in the race toward clean energy, that’s a problem most people are ignoring. Today, China controls over 68% of global REE mining and 86% of exports. These numbers don’t just indicate dominance, they define dependence. Your EVs, wind turbines, phones, defense systems, medical devices - all rely on REEs. These minerals power the green future we’re all trying to build. But here's the issue: -India holds over 6% of global REE reserves. - We mine less than 1%. That gap? It’s not just strategic. It’s existential. In 2010, when China cut off REE exports to Japan, the global market panicked. Prices spiked. Industries stalled. And once again, we remembered just how fragile our systems really are. Now imagine this happening at scale. Globally. Because that’s exactly where we’re headed unless we shift from extraction to intelligence. What are REEs used for? - Green energy: EV batteries, solar panels, wind turbines - Electronics: Smartphones, TVs, LEDs, laptops - Magnets & Motors: Used in almost every electric motor - Defense & Aerospace: Stealth, navigation, guidance systems - Medical: MRI machines, surgical tools - Refining: Catalysts for fuel and emissions control - Glass & Optics: High-performance glass, polishing, lenses They’re everywhere. And yet, we keep treating them like they’re infinite. So what’s the solution? Not just mining. And not just stockpiling. We need to build systems for circularity: - Recycle REEs from e-waste and clean tech - Localize processing capacity - Build incentives for recyclable design - Shift to lifecycle thinking, not just product cycles This is where real resilience comes from. Because if we don’t invest in sustainable recovery now, we’ll be paying the price in dependency later. The future isn’t just electric, it’s circular. And those who understand that today will lead tomorrow. Recykal.com #recykal #circularity #china #exports #evs

The copper market is currently meeting in Shanghai - at what is truly an unprecedented time; and one in which there will be no shortage of things to discuss. The key piece of intrigue will surround benchmark TC/RC discussions. The concentrate market is immensely tight - with little sign of letting up. Under this severe strain few participants seem certain how miners' and smelters' discussions will resolve themselves. Some even seem concerned that the benchmark system itself could be broken by this years discussions. This will be paired with the continued questionmarks as to how smelters survive in this shockingly tight environment. Annual TCs were at USD 80/t only last year. This year however, spot levels have been consistently negative. The broad LME/CME arbitrage, and the potential for US tariffs on copper will also continue to be in focus. The US section 232 announcement earlier this year did, after all, indicate that tariffs of 15% and 30% could be phased in across 2027 and 2028 for cathode. Market sources and media reports have indicated that traders are pushing for extra supplies of cathode to send into the US in 2026. This fear of tightness has led to record high premium offers for 2026 in Europe and Korea, thus this disjointed cathode market is likely to be a key topic of discussion this week. The macro-picture also provides little certainty; with US tariffs, fears around China's growth and worries about an AI bubble also somewhat clouding the forward picture on the economic side of things. I have been saved the jet lag this year - but am sat in London excited to hear the gossip as it trickles out from Shanghai. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Benchmark Copper #copper

Global Rare Earth Reserves: Why Central Asia Is Emerging as a Strategic Frontier Rare Earth Elements (REEs) are no longer just minerals — they are strategic assets of the 21st century Yet global supply remains highly concentrated. 📊 Estimated global REE reserves (~92 Mt): 🇨🇳 China — ~44 Mt 🇧🇷 Brazil — ~21 Mt 🇮🇳 India — ~6.9 Mt 🇦🇺 Australia — ~5.7 Mt 🇷🇺 Russia — ~3.8 Mt 🇻🇳 Vietnam — ~3.5 Mt 🇺🇸 USA — ~1.9 Mt Central Asia: an underestimated strategic reserve While not yet ranked among top holders, Central Asia shows significant untapped potential: ▪️ Kazakhstan: 15+ identified REE deposits; a recent Karaganda discovery (up to ~20 Mt, pending confirmation) could elevate the country into a top global tier ▪️ Tien Shan & Pamir belt: According to USGS geological data, Central Asia hosts 384 REE occurrences: • Kazakhstan — 160 • Uzbekistan — 87 • Kyrgyzstan — 75 • Tajikistan — 60 • Turkmenistan — 2 ▪️ Uzbekistan: large mineral base with only ~20% of territory fully explored ▪️ Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan: confirmed REE mineralization in mountainous systems Geological potential ≠ economic reserves — without exploration, infrastructure, and processing, resources remain strategic possibilities. The real power equation China’s dominance is not just in mining, but in processing, separation, and magnet production — up to 85–90% of capacity in key segments. ✔️ Control of technology > control of ore ✔️ REEs are becoming tools of geo-economic leverage ✔️ Central Asia is positioning itself as a diversification hub for the US, EU, Japan, and Korea Key takeaway In the 21st century, reserves do not equal influence. The winners will be those who control processing technologies, logistics, and market standards. Rare earth strategy is no longer just resource policy — it is national security and technological leadership. #RareEarths #CriticalMinerals #CentralAsia #Geopolitics #EnergyTransition #SupplyChains #StrategicResources #ESG

Copper at Record Highs: Why Price, Demand and Inventories No Longer Tell the Same Story Copper has entered a regime many are misreading. Prices are at record highs, volatility is elevated, and trading volumes are rising, yet physical demand signals, particularly from China, appear hesitant. Warehouses still hold metal. Imports look uneven. And yet the market behaves as if copper is scarce. This is not a failure of analysis. It is a failure of framing. What we are seeing is not a conventional commodity cycle driven by marginal consumption. Copper is increasingly governed by execution architecture: policy timing, inventory location, deliverability constraints, financing, and risk transfer. It is no longer priced purely as an industrial input. It is being priced as an execution-risk asset. Price Is Discovering Risk, Not Consumption Over the past twelve months, LME copper has risen roughly 44%, recently trading above $13,000 per tonne. The move reflects mine disruptions, deficit concerns, and, critically, a sustained pull of metal into the U.S. ahead of potential tariffs on refined copper. At the same time, Chinese imports have softened and physical users are increasingly price-resistant. This has revived talk of demand destruction. But that assumes spot consumption still sets price. It does not. Today’s price is set by actors hedging future execution difficulty: traders, funds, and strategic inventory holders seeking protection from policy risk, supply disruption, and macro uncertainty. When end-users delay purchases, copper is not removed from the system. It is displaced in time and geography. Inventory Exists — Availability Does Not Headline LME stocks sit near 145–146 kt. On paper, this looks comfortable. In reality, roughly 35% is cancelled, already earmarked, in transit, or otherwise unavailable. What remains is fragmented by location, brand, warrant status, financing constraints, and deliverability rules. Inventory on paper is not supply in practice. Deliverable inventory is supply. That is why prices rise even when stocks do not collapse. Scarcity is now defined by what can be delivered, where, under which contracts, and within which policy regime. Outlook: Copper as an Execution Asset The key question is no longer where demand weakens, but where execution failure becomes intolerable. Even with softer spot demand, the system remains tight because alignment across mining, refining, logistics, financing, and policy has little margin for error. Copper has not run out. Slack has. Price will continue to reflect future difficulty rather than present comfort. Volatility will persist. Inventories will mislead. This is not a distortion. It is a structural shift. Copper is not just a commodity anymore. It is an execution asset. London Metal Exchange CME Group Fastmarkets Metals and Mining CRU Benchmark Mineral Intelligence International Copper Association #Copper #Metals #ExecutionRisk #Commodities #LME #Volatility #IME

We are witnessing a bit of profit booking in gold and silver but it looks like the story is far from over. Gold is down about 5%, while silver has corrected nearly 10% from its recent peak. Both metals have been on a remarkable run this year, hitting record highs before easing slightly in recent days. But short-term price moves only tell part of the story. Underneath, the forces driving this rally remain firmly in place. Even after this pullback, the gold-to-silver ratio remains elevated at around 84, more than one standard deviation above its long-term average. In simple terms, it now takes 84 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold, compared to the historical average of 65–70. A level one standard deviation above the mean means this gap is wider than what’s been typical for most of the past 50 years, statistically unusual. Gold continues to hold a premium, reflecting how investors are still paying up for stability in a world of fiscal strain, geopolitical risk, and currency volatility. Central banks have reinforced that trend, adding record tonnes of gold to their reserves as they diversify away from the dollar. Silver, meanwhile, is quietly catching up, powered by industrial demand from solar energy, electric vehicles, and electronics. Each gigawatt of new solar capacity alone consumes roughly 25 kilograms of silver, and global installations are projected to double by 2030. The buying isn’t limited to industry either. Several Saudi banks and Asian institutions have been adding physical silver to reserves as part of broader diversification away from dollar assets. Historically, the gold-to-silver ratio has mirrored investor psychology.When fear dominates, the ratio widens as gold outperforms. When confidence and industrial activity return, silver narrows the gap. This interplay between trust, growth, and liquidity is what makes precious metals such a fascinating part of the global asset cycle. In last week’s edition of  Create Wealth newsletter, I’ve explored this in detail — what’s driving the re-rating in gold and silver, and how these timeless assets fit into a modern portfolio. 🔗 Read the full edition: https://lnkd.in/dwkUJmSV #CreateWealth #WealthManagement #Gold #Silver #Investing #Dezerv