Tropical Storm Nate

Tropical Storm Nate is curremtly located in the Gulf of Honduras with sustained winds of 45 mph. He is currently moving towards the north-northwest at 12 mph towards anomalously warm water which should promote strengthening. Nate could be very close to hurricane status by the time he reaches the Yucatan in the next 12 hours. Depending upon the exact path, interaction with the Yucatan landmass may weaken the storm somewhat, but it is expected to intensify again after entering the Gulf of Mexico. One of the intensity models has indicated a good chance for an additional 75 mph of intensification. Regarding a US landfall, the model spread has become increasingly tight with the center being coastal SE LA and onward to MS.  

Regarding the energy industry, I would expect some temporary shutdowns of Gulf production as Nate passes through. This may spur some temporary NG price increases. As for the PJM, ISONE, and NYISO power markets, Nate will most likely be drawn northeastward by a passing upper-level trough in SE Canada within the next 36 hours, thus passing through (as a depression) those deregulated electricity markets early next week. Expect warm/humid conditions, precipitation, and moderate wind gusts. Of course, those areas prone to overhanging limbs will suffer power outages. 

For those clients for whom we schedule, we will update your nominations over the weekend to capture any load changes due to weather forecast changes. For those clients who do their own nominations, I highly recommend updating your nominations over the weekend as there is quite a bit of uncertainty regarding Nate's inland path and speed/timing.