Skills momentum shifts as hiring momentum stalls

By Kory Kantenga, Head of Economics, Americas, at LinkedIn

Global hiring appears to have hit stall speed so far in 2026, with little sign of a rebound. As a result, many labor markets continue to favor employers, offering limited relief for job seekers. Even so, the broader labor market is not static, as demand for skills continues to shift toward AI enablement and operational efficiency.

In this edition, we examine how the hiring slowdown differs across regions, how competition is shifting as job seekers pull back unevenly, and which industries continue to see hiring momentum. We also examine today’s fastest‑growing skills, pointing to a labor market shaped less by recovery and more by reallocation.

Hiring momentum remains subdued amid uneven regional trends

Global hiring remains weak and uneven. In advanced economies, hiring continues to trail last year’s pace and sits well below pre-pandemic levels. Compared with January 2020, hiring is about 20% lower in the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and Germany, and more than one‑third lower in France and the Netherlands. Although the slowdown appears to be stabilizing, there is little sign of a sustained recovery. Most markets continue to decelerate year-over-year, highlighting the lack of a broad‑based rebound. Strength in several emerging markets continues to contrast sharply with persistent softness across the US, Europe, and parts of Asia Pacific.

In the Americas, hiring appears to be stabilizing in the US and Canada but deteriorating in Mexico and Brazil. In the US, hiring remains 20% below January 2020 levels but only down 3% year-over-year. Although US economic growth exceeded expectations in 2025, it led to a slower deceleration—not sustained labor‑market momentum—as reflected in a modest rise in unemployment. Canada and Mexico share a similar long‑run pattern, with hiring more than 20% below pre-pandemic levels. More recently, however, Mexico has decelerated more sharply: year-over-year hiring is down 15%, compared with 7% in Canada. This deceleration is continuing, with month‑over‑month hiring down nearly 4% in Mexico versus modest changes in Canada (–0.4%) and the US (+0.4%). Brazil stands out for a smaller decline relative to pre-pandemic levels (–9%), but a double-digit year-over-year drop in hiring (–14%) signals that labor‑market momentum has turned negative.

In Europe, hiring momentum remains particularly subdued and continues to weaken. France and the Netherlands are now down roughly one‑third from January 2020, while Germany and the UK remain about 20% below their pre-pandemic baseline. Year-over-year declines of 15% across France, Germany, and the Netherlands point to sustained softness, and month‑over‑month declines suggest further near‑term softening. Modest growth prospects across the region limit the chances of a strong rebound in hiring momentum in Europe’s largest economies this year.

The Asia‑Pacific region presents a more mixed picture. Australia and Singapore remain well below pre-pandemic levels (–20% and –18%, respectively), though year-over-year declines have moderated. India remains a clear outlier: hiring is more than 30% above its January 2020 level and continues to sustain momentum. Along with the United Arab Emirates—where hiring is also well above pre-pandemic levels—momentum remains concentrated in a narrow set of emerging markets.

The global hiring slowdown has moderated substantially but has yet to turn meaningfully upward. In advanced economies, hiring remains subdued, giving employers more leverage. Emerging markets show more uneven performance: momentum continues to deteriorate across Latin America while holding up in large Asia‑Pacific emerging markets. Overall, the latest hiring trends indicate that global labor‑market conditions are likely to remain tight for job seekers in the near future.

Competition shifts unevenly as job seekers pull back

Over the past year, shifts in labor‑market balance have followed a familiar but uneven pattern: job postings per applicant declined across most countries, while job seeking intensity diverged by region. In many markets, softer labor demand coincided with falling application activity, suggesting that rising competition is testing job‑seeker persistence rather than prompting greater effort.

Europe experienced some of the steepest declines in job postings per applicant. Postings per applicant fell by double digits in Germany (–17%) and the Netherlands (–13%), alongside a notable drop in France (–8%). Job seeking intensity also weakened, with applications per applicant down in France (–7%), Germany (–5%), and the Netherlands (–2%). Together, these trends point to mounting application fatigue as opportunities narrow. Anglophone markets showed a similar but less pronounced pattern. In the US and UK, postings per applicant declined modestly (–4% and –5%), while applications per applicant fell more sharply (–11% in both), signaling a pullback in effort driven by discouragement rather than improving conditions. Australia followed a comparable trajectory, with declines in both postings per applicant (–4%) and applications per applicant (–8%).

Elsewhere, labor market dynamics were more mixed. In Canada and Singapore, job postings per applicant rose (+6% and +8%), while job seeking intensity fell (–9% and –2%), easing competition among workers. By contrast, competition continued to intensify across several emerging markets. Job postings per applicant declined sharply in India (–18%) and fell in Brazil (–6%) and Mexico (–8%), even as applications per applicant increased or held steady. These patterns suggest that job seekers in emerging markets remain engaged despite tightening conditions. The United Arab Emirates experienced only a modest decline in job postings per applicant (–3%) alongside stable job seeking intensity, pointing to relatively balanced labor market conditions.

These patterns point to a labor market increasingly shaped by withdrawal rather than escalation. In advanced economies, declining application activity suggests that fatigue is now offsetting rising competition, setting the stage for competition to level out as labor demand weakens. In emerging markets, sustained effort amid intensifying competition indicates that job seekers continue to see value in intensifying their search, shifting leverage to employers.

Structural demand sustains hiring in a small set of industries

Despite the absence of a broad‑based hiring recovery, the slowdown has been uneven relative to pre-pandemic benchmarks. A comparison of LinkedIn’s hiring rate in January 2026 with January 2020 shows that only a narrow set of industries have maintained—or exceeded—their pre-pandemic hiring intensity across countries. This resilience reflects structural demand rather than cyclical momentum, with essential services and publicly supported sectors consistently outperforming the broader labor market.

Across regions, health care and education emerge as the most globally resilient industries, ranking among the top three in a majority of countries. Health care stands out in Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, India, Singapore, and the Netherlands, while education features prominently in Australia, Canada, India, Singapore, and the UK—patterns consistent with demographic pressures, service backlogs, and persistent staffing needs.

Elsewhere, consumer services remain relatively strong in the US, Canada, France, and the UK. Construction and utilities feature prominently in the US, Germany, and parts of Europe, supported by large infrastructure and defense investments. Logistics stands out in Brazil and Mexico, while real estate and construction hiring are buoyed by development in the United Arab Emirates. Overall, industry trends point to a labor market defined less by recovery than by reallocation toward sectors with durable, long‑run demand.

From July 2025 to January 2026, the strongest hiring momentum concentrated in a small set of recurring industries. Oil, Gas, and Mining led most clearly, ranking first in Brazil, Canada, France, Mexico, and the UK, signaling a broad‑based rebound in energy hiring. Accommodation and Food Services also stood out, showing the strongest momentum in the Netherlands and Singapore amid continued strength in travel and consumer demand. Momentum in Real Estate and Equipment Rental Services points to expanding activity in Brazil, Germany, and the UAE. Technology, Information and Media maintained momentum in Canada and the US as tech hiring stabilized across North America.

Workforce confidence reflects unevenness in labor market momentum

Workforce confidence rebounded across many major markets at the start of 2025, though trends remain uneven. In the US and the UK, confidence improved after reaching record lows earlier in 2025 amid heightened economic uncertainty and is now broadly in line with 2024 levels. Australia similarly saw confidence recover to levels consistent with the past three years after a dip driven by uncertainty in 2025. France entered the year with a rebound and has largely held steady, continuing a pattern of relative stability despite several sharp confidence declines during 2025. In contrast, Canada’s recovery from record‑low confidence has stalled, with sentiment continuing a gradual decline that began in early 2023. In Germany, workforce confidence has shown little improvement since 2024 and remains near historic lows, highlighting persistent economic challenges relative to peers.

AI implementation and operational efficiency dominate the fastest‑growing skills

Although hiring momentum appears to have stalled, labor demand continues to shift in meaningful ways. As AI adoption moves from experimentation to implementation, demand is rising for both technical and strategic AI skills. On the technical side, the fastest‑growing skills include working with large language models (LLMs), prompt engineering, PyTorch, and the applied use of tools such as ChatGPT. As organizations integrate AI into core products and processes, demand is also increasing for skills in AI business strategy, data and software architecture, data‑driven decision‑making, and general AI literacy.

Beyond AI‑specific skills, companies are placing greater emphasis on leadership, operational, and risk‑related skills to support transformation at scale. People management, cross‑functional collaboration, and stakeholder communication are among the fastest‑growing skills. Business development, go‑to‑market strategy, and revenue growth skills are also increasing, alongside operational efficiency, process optimization, and workflow management, as employers navigate a more uncertain economic and policy environment. These trends are reinforced by rising demand for governance, risk, compliance, and cybersecurity capabilities to ensure that technology adoption aligns with regulatory, ethical, and security requirements.

For more insights on skill trends, including by job function, check out LinkedIn’s 2026 Skills on the Rise report.