The Principle of Least Effort, II

Chess is a very good game for understanding human behavior and how to take advantage of it.  Previously I wrote about how the Principle of Least Effort leads us to leap on the first minimally acceptable solution.  Controlling this impulse is the key skill in chess.  At different stages of the game the number of possible moves, though never infinite, can be quite overwhelming.  However, there are always fewer than ten percent of the moves that are good and there is only one best move.  That is the reason that chess players are thinking several moves ahead.  Not to be several moves ahead of their opponent as some would leave you to believe, but simply to answer the question, “And then what?”

There are two simultaneous goals in the game of Chess depending upon the stage of the game and the position you find yourself in their relative primacy changes.  Ultimately and initially, the primary goal is to checkmate the opponent or make the opponent feel that checkmate is inevitable.  The other, generally secondary, goal is to avoid being checkmated.

The Opening Game

In the beginning of a chess match there are twenty possible moves for each player: 16 pawn moves and 2 knight moves.   On the second move there are between 19 and 28 moves depending solely upon what the player’s first move was.  On the third move there are between 19 and 38 but now the actual number for the first time depends not only on the first two moves by the player but this is the first point where an opponent’s move can obstruct a players available moves.  I will leave the math to those so inclined but suffice it to say that there are around 24000 possible combinations for the first three moves for each player.  Thus there are nearly 540 million possible chess openings considering the first three moves available to both black and white.  However, the list of book openings including gambits and variations is much less than 1000.  That is over time it has been established that only 1 in 540,000 opening sequences is acceptable, the criteria being worthy of being remembered and emulated.  Since this combines the moves of both players, it is strongly arguable that there are only around 30, the square root of 900 sequences of first three moves that are acceptable.  Since three cubed equals 27.  One can posit that there are around 3 or four great first moves in chess which can be followed by three or four great second moves followed by 3 or four great third moves.

The Principle of Least effort, unfortunately applies regardless of experience or knowledge.  Thus, although a chess master may find three acceptable first moves, a novice may find all 20 equally acceptable.  Experience and intelligence do not change the principle they merely inform the player.  This is why an expert player can walk up and down an aisle playing multiple players seemingly by magic.  His first three moves are played without thought.  He already knows what his first three moves will be and he doesn’t have to give a lot of thought to what his opponent is doing.  If his opponent is good then his opponent will respond with the expected move.  If an opponent is not good he is very likely to blunder by making technically acceptable moves but which are suboptimal.  That is why experience and knowledge are so valuable in problem solving; when the principle of least effort applies, you want people on your team who are more likely to find the best solution as the first solution.

The Middle Game

Either through knowledge or luck you survive the opening.  Now the game seems much more random.  Most pieces are still on the board but are more distributed which means more pieces are in play and more paths are obstructed by opponent’s pieces rather than your own and so may optionally be taken.  Now the acceptability of options, good moves vs bad moves, are more critical and more complex.  Plus there is a race as two competing strategies are in play and the first one to execute their strategy will win.  This is where the principle of least effort is most detrimental to the primary goal.  Your best move it the one that maximizes the advancement of your strategy and minimizes or obstructs your opponent’s strategy to the greatest extent.  The key is at this point you need to have a strategy of your own and you need to have an accurate read on the strategy of your opponent.  This is the place where the greatest number and most severe selection mistakes happen.  During this middle game you must constantly fight against the desire to select the first, second or even third acceptable solution.  Because at this point your opponent is attempting to do the same thing to you.  If you miss the best move and your opponent finds the best move it can be devastating.  If it happens often enough even a good move opposite the best move will leave you switching to focus on the secondary goal.

In all of this confusion and hyper focus there is a leverage that can be used to throw your opponent off balance.  This is the tactical check.  What is a tactical check?  A move is not expected to lead directly to check mate but forces your opponent to switch their focus from their primary goal to their secondary goal.  If executed at the right time against the right opponent this can reverse the momentum of a game.  Again because the only acceptable moves are the set of moves that prevent checkmate and also place the king in a position to where these tactical checks cease.  If you can integrate this tactical check into your strategy to position your position your pieces for your primary goal so much the better.  But the true reason for doing this especially against a lesser experienced player is to give them an opportunity to choose a suboptimal move by forcing them to take a strategic detour down a path that they haven’t previously been thinking about.  From personal experience, I have seen it worked on me and I end up after finally securing my king from check executing a suboptimal move that I may have even dismissed earlier as suboptimal but now the board has changed I recognize it as something that I had considered before and I see the time ticking down.  Time constraints constantly promote suboptimal moves and create missed opportunities to make the best move.  To combat this the commitment to comprehensive planning and risk assessment with the ability to adapt to change and refocus on strategic goals is key.  Every step involves the opportunity to make the best move or an alternative move.  If you miss the best move often enough, you will lose.

The End Game

At some point in the game, if both players have managed to effectively execute the secondary goal.  All of the choices that were made in the opening and middle games have brought you here.  The best moves that you made and the best moves that you missed are behind you.  There are only a few pieces left.  The strategies are simpler and the options available are diminished.  At this point in the game there only three types of moves; the best move, a bad move and the losing move.  Unfortunately, any of these may be technically acceptable.  If you make it to the end game the differences that were so exploitable between more and less experienced players diminish.  Distractions, such as tactical checks, become much less effective.  Here the specific knowledge of how to execute your objective with the pieces you is the key.  The appearance of acceptability or equality of options must be fought tooth and nail.  Because any move that is not the absolute best move leaves an opening for your opponent to make the best move and take control of the strategy and determine the outcome.  But the nuanced differences between choosing which pawn to advance or the direction in which to move a piece don’t play out on the subsequent move but rather deterministically on the fifth or eighth move.  The prescient player who can make that first best move and follow it with that next best move will dictate the outcome of the match even if the opponent makes the best move available to them.  That first best move is the winning move.  This is definitely not the time to be satisfied with a good move and hope that your opponent is incapable of finding the best move.  With fewer options available, the only strategy is to look at every move the possible counter moves and continue until an outcome is decided.  Once you know the best move that you can make and what the outcome will be the choices are yours; win the game, offer a draw or resign.  The last read on your opponent you will have to make is that if you offer a draw and he declines.  This means one of two things, he doesn’t respect you or he has misread the board.  Continue the game eagerly and wait for him to make the suboptimal move that he thinks will take him to win the game for him.  Then stop, because every suboptimal move an opponent makes opens a new opportunity to victory for you.