Before We Call It Good or Bad

Seeing What Emerges and Why Obvious Causes Mislead Us

Why do we so often blame the obvious cause and miss the hidden patterns that actually drive outcomes?

In both life and organisational life, the consequences of our actions rarely appear immediately or in isolation. From small everyday choices to organisational decisions, what seems obvious in the moment can be misleading over time. Insights from a Zen story, alongside the work of Tina A. Grotzer on complex causality, invite us to pause before judging outcomes and to pay closer attention to what is still emerging, often out of sight, before small issues become big problems.

The Limits of Certainty

With everything happening in the world today, it’s hard to be confident that our choices today will remain the best tomorrow.

Take the humble plastic bag. When it appeared sixty years ago, it was celebrated as a convenience innovation. Today, its devastating impact on ecosystems is painfully clear. The same is true for the internet, our reliance on devices, and ultra-processed foods.

💡 Example: The plastic bag was convenient and cheap, but decades later, rivers and oceans are clogged with it. What seemed beneficial initially became a long-term problem.

Systems have no do-overs. Effects unfold slowly, unevenly, and often far from their origin.

A Lesson from Zen

A Buddhist Zen story illustrates this idea. A farmer’s son falls and breaks his leg. Neighbours call it a tragedy. “Maybe,” the father replies. Later, when all the young men are sent to war, the son is spared, and the neighbours call it a blessing. “Maybe,” the father says again.

💡 Takeaway: The lesson isn’t optimism or resignation: it’s restraint. The world is full of causes and effects we cannot fully predict.

Looking Beyond the Obvious

We often focus on the most visible factor, like being near someone who is sick, while overlooking other variables: viral load, duration of exposure, immune response, ventilation, or prior immunity. Such reasoning looks at things in isolation, missing how factors interact over time.

💡 Example: Two people may sit near the same sick colleague; one falls ill, the other does not. The difference could be time spent, prior immunity, or even airflow in the room.

In organisations, leaders may assume longer working hours automatically improve performance, overlooking skill, teamwork, and a supportive team environment.

💡 Example: Adding hours to a workweek doesn’t automatically boost results; without training, support, and effective process or team coordination, productivity may drop instead.

The Danger of Surface-Level Explanations

After organisational changes like layoffs, leaders often blame declining morale on employees’ attitudes because it’s easy to see. But the real causes are systemic: increased workloads, reduced trust, and loss of support.

💡 Mini-case: At a software company, repeated delays were blamed on one developer. Reviewing workflow revealed the real causes: uneven workloads and unclear project ownership.

It’s not enough to show the iceberg of visible and hidden elements. Most patterns lie below the surface; they need to be interpreted and made meaningful.

The “Look-Inside” Illusion

Organisations often fixate on metrics, charts, or dashboards, attributing problems to individual flaws—“toxic employees” or “more meetings reduce productivity”, instead of systemic issues.

In everyday life, people rely on fitness apps or step-by-step instructions, memorising numbers without understanding the relationships that actually determine outcomes.

💡 Example: Counting steps alone doesn’t ensure fitness; diet, rest, intensity, age, metabolism, and genetics all play a role.

Emerging Consequences

Outcomes ripple through systems in ways that are hard to anticipate. Just like the farmer’s son, what seems like misfortune or a blessing may reveal its meaning only over time. Systems are dynamical, and consequences rarely appear immediately.

💡 Takeaway: By fostering patience and attentiveness, we become aware of changing patterns, approach situations with humility, and learn from what unfolds instead of making hasty judgments.

Learning to Move and Self-Correct

One of the main goals of learning about complexity is to create movement and get unstuck. Understanding causality helps us notice when it’s time to change course. It also makes us aware of how outcomes emerge from the collective behaviour of many, behaviours that are often non-intentional and felt far from their causes.

💡 Example: A team sees repeated delays on a project. Instead of blaming one person, they examine workflow, communication, and workload, then adjust processes accordingly.

Causal Complexity in Focus

Tina A. Grotzer’s work investigates complex causality: how multiple causes and effects interconnect in looping, non-linear patterns that often remain hidden from those who are not trained to recognise them. Recognising these patterns provides insight into the hidden dynamics of systems that are normally out of sight.

David Perkins notes that society has historically been slow to recognise what’s worth learning. Understanding causal complexity helps us spot non-linear patterns sooner, act more wisely, and notice feedback loops, consequences, and subtle relationships that shape outcomes.

A Call to Mindful Action

As I listen to podcasts, watch the news, or chat with colleagues, I notice how often I jump to the obvious explanation. Most outcomes, though, are shaped by hidden patterns quietly unfolding beneath the surface.

This is not just an intellectual exercise; it’s a practical way to stay attentive and responsive.

Call to action: Where have you been seeing only the obvious cause? What might you be missing? Share your thoughts or tag someone who might appreciate this perspective. Let’s start noticing what’s out of sight, together.

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