Asymmetric Consequences - Lifelong Impact from Small Mistakes

In this article I want to discuss a belief I have developed over time, which I call Asymmetric Consequences. The idea is that in some cases a short term decision, a moment of inspiration, or a second of inattention can lead to very long term impact on your life, good or bad. While some of these consequences are not avoidable or controllable, others are. This article first defines the difference between predictable (what I would call symmetric) consequences and asymmetric impacts. Then we'll explore which you can control.

Symmetric consequences are those that I feel are predictable. On the negative side, if you smoke all your life and then contract mouth, throat, or lung cancer, this is a predictable, if uncertain, consequence. Similarly, if you are overweight all your life and do not exercise, then develop diabetes or heart problems, this too is reasonably predictable. On the positive side, if you work hard, live within a budget, and ultimate increase your savings, this is predictable as well.

It is important to note that predictable consequences are still not certain. Some people smoke all their lives and die in their sleep of other causes. Some people work hard and try to save money, but other events or choices leave them without savings. For this purpose, I am defining a symmetric consequence as having three properties. First, the actions that lead to the consequence take place over a long period of time. Second, the likely consequence of those actions, though not certain, is well known in advance and supported by scientific statistical evidence that it is likely to occur. Third, the cause that results in the consequence (years of smoking, a large paunch, a growing savings account) tend to accumulate visibly and in plain sight. In such a situation, it is comparably easy to plan. Exercise and eat a healthy diet, and you can be said to be planning to avoid heart disease (even though you may not be successful in doing so).

With this definition, let's move to asymmetric consequences. An asymmetric consequence is something that happens quickly and is irreversible once it occurs, even though the action that led to it may be part of a repeating pattern. My favorite example here is texting while driving. You can text many times. If nothing happens, you have accumulated no consequence. This is different from gaining weight or saving money, where even if you later change behavior you must either lose the weight or you have money to spend if you shift to over spending. The texting driver has no consequence... until he looks down at the wrong time and hits another car. At this point, the texting driver has instantaneous and irreversible consequences. At a minimum, the cars are damaged. More severely, the driver or others may be hurt or killed. There is no way to "undo" those consequences completely. Cars can be repaired, and people may sometimes fully heal. But not always.

Asymmetric consequences can be positive as well. The most obvious is the purchase of a winning lottery ticket - a momentary decision and a trivial expense can lead to great wealth. But at work, making the right decision in a crisis, getting moved under a great new boss, or switching to join a company right before it goes public could be considered circumstances where a short term choice or action lead to long term positive consequences. In my own life, for example, I chose to join Amazon when it was still known only for the sales of retail goods. As a result, I've gotten to enjoy Amazon's expansion into digital media (my own area) and Amazon Web Services based on my choice to take a job with what was then a somewhat questionable "dot com" era company whose future was hotly debated. At the time no public commentator predicted what Amazon has become.

Now we arrive at the key question - if symmetric consequences are predictable, are asymmetric consequences predictable as well?

My answer to this is "sometimes." You might develop a terrible disease tomorrow. Or, you might be driving and be hit by the texting, distracted driver even when you are driving safely yourself. I have a good friend who was hit by another driver. His foot was crushed and he has walked with a limp for ever after. While lots of readers can point out impractical theoretical ways to avoid this, like never driving, sometimes things happen that we cannot reasonably avoid. Consequences arrive in our lives and our only choice is to manage them; we cannot avoid them.

However, importantly, many asymmetric consequences are in fact highly predictable in the long term. Do enough texting while driving, you cannot be surprised if you hit someone. The same is true at work. Slide into work late frequently, cleverly avoiding the boss, and don't be surprised if you get caught. On the positive side, take on extra work or study new skills at night, and you may "make your own luck" when a promotion or better assignments come to you. We tend to call things "luck" that are actually the predictable outcome of enough wise or unwise actions.

The way apply this theory to your life and career is to think through the potential consequences. You cannot be sure if or when you will realize them, but you can know that they exist and either take actions (not texting while driving) to avoid them or (volunteering when asked to step up at work) to enhance them, you have better chances of a positive outcome.

I get that it is easier to envision negative consequences, such as car wrecks, than practical positive ones. But I believe positive asymmetric consequences do exist. Early in my career at Amazon I was in a crucial meeting where we were deciding on whether or not to pursue a partnership with TiVo. My boss and his boss where there, along with both my peers and my boss's peer. The big boss, our SVP, was against the deal, stating that it had some drawbacks. However, he also said that no deal was perfect and that he would leave it to us if we wanted to go forward. I felt the deal was a good one and my boss had been pushing me to take more ownership of the product roadmap. Towards the end of the meeting, I stated, "This project will take only 7% of my team's resources for the year to implement. Unless you order me not to, I'm going to complete this partnership."

To this day I cannot tell you exactly why I picked these somewhat unusual words. But, no one objected and we went forward with the partnership, which turned out to be much more of a success than anyone expected. Other companies started working with us based on seeing the results of the partnership in public. I was promoted, and when I later was given a copy of my promotion document, my decisive stance to pursue the partnership was cited as the main evidence of my leadership that indicated that I was ready to do more within Amazon.

In some sense my entire career at Amazon flows from that one decision, that one spoken assertion, in that single meeting in early 2007. About the time I was promoted I had received an offer from an external startup. The offer was for a lot less money than I was paid after my promotion and the company didn't do as well as Amazon has done in the time in between. But without the decision I would not have been promoted and I likely would have taken the external offer.

Were the consequences of my choice predictable? Well, at least directionally. I had done my homework and knew how much effort the project would require. I had made a habit of being decisive (bold) in what we did. I had listened to my boss in his direction of how he wanted me to lead (take more ownership of the product) and so I could quote his direction back to him in the meeting. As in the negative case of texting while driving, I could not know which well-considered bold decision would have good results, but I could reasonably predict that by being prepared and taking chances, eventually one would pay off.

At the same time, I have tried to be careful to avoid negative consequences from inappropriate humor. While I am sure I have not been at all perfect at this and I am also sure that I have bypassed many cases where I could have safely gotten a laugh from someone, by trying to minimize potentially offensive jokes (apologies now to anyone with whom I failed to do this), I have avoided creating serious blow back when a joke is taken wrongly or causes true offense. I think of this as texting while driving. You might get away with it 100 times or 1000. But in the one case where you do then cause serious offense, it will be too late.

In summary, you can apply the theory of asymmetric consequences to your own life and career in both the positive and the negative. Look at your habits, both good and bad. Those that are bad but that have a chance of a real, instantaneous downside, you work to stop before they bite you in a lasting, irreversible way. For the good ones, you stay at them, patiently playing the odds over and over until the good reward comes through.

Simply being aware that circumstances exist where a momentary choice can make or ruin a career or a life can be valuable. Humans are generally poor at being disciplined when consequences are not immediate. When consequences are in the future and are uncertain to occur, we struggle to believe in them and to act accordingly over the long term. Be wiser than this. Understand that uncertain does not mean unpredictable. Gamble enough times, good or bad, and a payoff is likely. The payoff is uncertain because we don't know when it will happen, not because it will not.

Good luck!

The EZ Coach

www.theezcoach.com

P.S. Each time I publish an article, after the fact I think of things I wish I had said better, so I am adding this as a post script.. The reason I call most things "symmetric" consequences is that you do a lot over a long time to create the consequences, which then take place over a long time as well. Thus, the effort you put in appears symmetrical with the results you get. Asymmetric Consequences fascinate me because something can happen in an instant that changes your life. 

A couple of years ago I was skiing on a very easy slope. I came around a small tree, pulled up to a stop (in a way I have done hundreds of times before), and lost my balance just a bit. Rather than fight it, I sat down to the side of my skis (a kind of soft fall). But, this time the angle was just enough wrong, with the result that the meniscus in my knee tore. While I can live with the damage, I have pain in that knee any time I twist it just a bit or walk on it too far. I can have surgery, but the outcomes from such surgery are pretty mixed. Some people are better, some are worse, many are in the middle. The point is though, that one instant, literally a split second decision to plop down rather than fight falling over, has resulted in two years of discomfort so far and likely lifelong pain and knee damage. That's asymmetric. Compare that to say disciplined eating or spending, where you put in effort every day and you see fitness and savings every day. That's what I call symmetric.

I want to acknowledge Raffaele Canizzaro pointing out that Nassim Taleb has books on this subject. Raff recommends Antifragile. However, Taleb's less-well-rated book, "Skin in the Game" actually is subtitled "Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life," which from the sound of it appears to focus on the exact same thing I am discussing. I've added both to my endless reading list.