TimesFM-2.5: A New Standard for Zero-Shot Forecasting

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We have released TimesFM-2.5, the new leader in the GIFT-Eval on all accuracy metrics among zero-shot foundation models. This improved foundation model is now available on Hugging Face, with an upcoming release on GCP's BigQuery and Model Garden. This release represents a significant advancement. TimesFM-2.5 outperforms TimesFM 2.0 on leading benchmarks by up to 25%, while using half the number of parameters (200M). It also features a longer maximum context length of 16K. 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲-𝗦𝗲𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴? Time-series analysis is the process of studying data points collected over time to make predictions and identify trends. It is a critical tool for a wide range of applications, like: ➡️ Forecasting future product demand. ➡️ Tracking weather and precipitation ➡️ Optimizing supply chains and energy grids. 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗶𝘁 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗶𝗻𝗴? Time-series forecasting is difficult because data patterns are often complex, can change over time, and are influenced by numerous factors. Developing a single model that can perform well across diverse datasets without being explicitly trained on each one has been a major challenge. 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀𝗙𝗠-𝟮.𝟱: 𝗔 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗭𝗲𝗿𝗼-𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘁 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 TimesFM-2.5 sets a new standard for a decoder-only foundation model trained on a large time-series corpus. 🤗 Leading Performance: TimesFM-2.5 holds the top position on the GIFT-Eval leaderboard for point forecasting accuracy (MASE) and probabilistic forecasting accuracy (CRPS). 🤗 Efficiency: The model's efficiency is a key feature, with a small parameter count that makes it practical for a wide range of production environments. 🤗 Longer Context: The increased context length allows the model to process more historical data, leading to more accurate forecasts. This work reiterates that building a single foundation model for time series forecasting is possible. Google Research keeps pushing forward the frontier of time series forecasting research. We are grateful to our community and customers who have provided feedback and deployed TimesFM in production. We are interested to hear more about how you are using TimesFM. Read more in our repository and see the leaderboard. GiFT-Eval: https://lnkd.in/dAwAcKA7 GitHub: https://lnkd.in/dWXH7BAm  Hugging Face: https://lnkd.in/dtx9iMHE To learn more about the foundational model read the Paper: https://lnkd.in/dRw3zzXT

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Thank you for the wonderful recognition, Yossi Matias! Incredibly proud of the amazing research team that continues to push the frontier. Huge congratulations to Abhimanyu Das, Rajat Sen, Yichen Zhou! This milestone is also a testament to our fantastic partners in Google Cloud. A special thank you to Vaibhav Sethi, Haoming Chen, and the entire BigQuery team for making it so easy for countless customers to benefit from this world-class forecasting technology right within their BigQuery workflows. On a personal note, I always enjoy hearing from customers how TimesFM helps them solve real-world problems and make their businesses more efficient. It's exciting to see this work has such an impact.

Impressive leap in forecasting accuracy with fewer parameters—TimesFM-2.5 is game-changing!

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Looking forward to try it out! Earlier version has shown promising results in prediction of some metrics in app analytics domain!

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Super valuable, thanks for shring Yossi Matias !

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Amazingly powerful tool!

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