May 2025 Labor Market Summary: Hiring Slows, but Opportunities Remain

There are some great insights on the evolving landscape of employment and payroll in the latest edition of the Family owned, privately owned and owner-managed business survey by Armstrong Watson. Key takeaways include: 💡78 per cent of respondents nationally reported difficulty with recruiting new talent, with 54 per cent citing a lack of skilled candidates. 💡While salary sacrifice remains a viable option for employers to structure employee pay and benefits tax efficiently, more than half of the respondents surveyed have decided not to implement such schemes, potentially due to uncertainty around Budget reforms. 💡Increasing costs are the biggest concern for businesses over the next three years - particularly those who operate on tight margins such as construction and manufacturing businesses. 💡18 per cent of business owners are looking to exit their business over the next two years - an increase from 15 per cent in the previous survey. There’s a link to download the full report in the attached article: https://lnkd.in/eyuPCEaU Stephen McCullough Tom Austin

Private company data will have to do US private sector employers lost about 32,000 jobs last month, according to a report from payroll-processing giant ADP, which is likely to be the only data we get on the state of the labor market until the government shutdown ends. The September drop continues a troubling trend, as ADP’s revised numbers show a loss of 3,000 jobs in August. Economists had hoped for an increase of close to 45,000 jobs in September. Some key areas: The leisure and hospitality sector lost 19,000 jobs, likely due to vacation season wrapping up. Meanwhile, professional and business services fell by 13,000 roles. The overall decline was concentrated in the Midwest. Smaller companies (with under 500 employees) seem to be shedding the most workers. This data…is fine Jobs data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics is regarded as the gold standard. Its September report was due to be released on Friday, but yesterday, the US government locked its big, ornamental doors and didn’t bring any work home. That could mean the Fed will have to make its decision about whether to further cut interest rates in a few weeks without the benefit of the most recent data to guide them. Still, ADP is pretty reliable. The company collects data about the 26+ million workers employed by companies that use ADP’s payroll management system. That’s a significant chunk of the US’ nearly 136 million private-sector workers. While ADP’s report is sometimes far off from initial BLS numbers, the company has revamped its process to make its reports more accurate, and recent ones highlighted declines in the labor market before the BLS data did. When will we know more? If the shutdown doesn’t drag on, BLS should be able to get September’s jobs report and new CPI numbers out pretty quickly, even though it’s short-staffed from layoffs and President Trump recently fired its head. But if we experience a repeat of the 16-day break from 2013, future data could also be delayed. And lawmakers don’t have a plan to end this shutdown yet.

The October 2025 jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has not been released due to a government shutdown, as the usual Employment Situation report was delayed from its scheduled release on October 3rd. In the absence of official data, private-sector reports indicate a weakening labor market, with ADP's National Employment Report showing a loss of 32,000 private-sector jobs in September. Private companies are hesitant to lay off workers but are also reducing hiring plans, creating an uneven market where certain sectors, such as healthcare, still add jobs, while others lag. Learn more from the ADP Employment Report

Did you know? Many Employer of Record (EOR) providers in the market aren’t designed for staffing firms, particularly those operating in the U.S. market. This oversight can lead to hidden costs, compliance issues, and operational inefficiencies for your recruitment business. For staffing firms, choosing the right EOR is critical. Most EORs cater to end clients directly and are not equipped to handle contingent-style, hourly work or offer necessary services like payroll funding. Without these key features, staffing firms may face hurdles that could jeopardize their growth and profitability. Our article breaks down the essential factors staffing firms must consider when selecting an EOR. From avoiding potential conflicts of interest to ensuring comprehensive workers’ compensation coverage, we guide you through the decision-making process with practical insights and industry-specific advice. Here’s a quick rundown of what you’ll learn: 1. The difference between Enterprise EORs and Staffing EORs 2. Why payroll funding is essential for staffing firms 3. Red flags to watch for when EORs also operate as staffing companies 4. The importance of evaluating an EOR’s tech platform for seamless integration Explore our full article to uncover actionable strategies and make an informed decision. https://lnkd.in/e4CS6NEy

📉 ADP Jobs Report — September 2025 Highlights ADP's latest Jobs Report states the U.S. private sector shed 32,000 jobs in September, the steepest decline in over two years. At the same time, wages continued to rise, highlighting the ongoing mismatch between labor supply and demand. 🗝️ Key Highlights: 🔹Pay growth: +4.5% for job-stayers; +6.6% for job-changers. 🔹Goods-producing sector: -3,000 jobs [Manufacturing -2,000, Construction -5,000, Mining +4,000] 🔹Service-providing sectors -28,000: [Education & health services was the standout, adding +33,000 jobs] 🏢 By establishment size: Small firms: -40,000 jobs Medium firms: -20,000 Large employers: +33,000 jobs 🔎 The slowdown suggests employers, especially smaller firms, are continuing to pull back. Wage pressures remain, particularly in high-demand skill areas, signaling a tighter labor market even as overall hiring cools. 👀 And with a government shutdown delaying BLS releases, we’ll need to watch the ADP data even more closely in the weeks ahead. 👉 https://lnkd.in/gtw8Xcu4 #180Engineering #ADP #ADPjobsreport #JobsReport #Labormarket #Jobs #hiring #workforceplanning #economy

U.S. Labor Market Snapshot — September 2025 With the BLS pausing its monthly nonfarm payroll / unemployment release, we lose our usual high-visibility labor benchmark. But we still have strong signals from private and turnover data to help us read the market’s pulse. What the data tell us... • ADP (Sept 2025): Private sector lost ~ 32,000 jobs. • Wages (ADP): Up ~ 4.5% year-over-year. • JOLTS (Aug 2025, latest): Job openings steady at 7.227 million, openings rate at 4.3%. • Turnover (Aug): Hires, quits, and layoffs all largely unchanged. What it suggests... • The labor market appears to be losing traction. A drop in private hiring, especially in smaller firms, could signal weaker momentum ahead. • Employers are not aggressively expanding headcounts—job openings have plateaued at the moment. • Wage growth remains positive, though moderation in hiring could ease labor cost pressures down the line. Caveats to Consider... • ADP excludes public sector and may diverge from eventual BLS totals. • JOLTS is backward-looking (August), and the next release (September) is still weeks away. • These are proxy signals...not perfect substitutes for comparing to the BLS nonfarm payroll report. What to watch next... • The BLS’s return to publishing the monthly employment report • The September 2025 JOLTS release in early November • Corporate earnings / hiring commentary in November – December • Revisions to earlier months when BLS resumes full reporting Bottom line... Even without the official BLS “jobs report,” the signals from ADP and JOLTS are pointing toward a cooling labor market, rather than a continued “boom.” The “job engine” may be sputtering, and the next few months will be key in confirming whether this is a soft patch or the start of a deeper slowdown.

ADP National Employment Report - Private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September, with smaller to mid-sized businesses having been cautious with hiring across most sectors. https://lnkd.in/eY36REAX

ADP EMPLOYMENT, September 2025 JOB LOSS: U.S. private employers lost a total of 32,000 jobs in September. DATA ADJUSTMENT: A preliminary "re-benchmarking" of the data by ADP, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, led to a reduction of 43,000 jobs compared to pre-benchmarked figures. REVISED AUGUST DATA: The report also showed a downward revision for August, with businesses now reported to have lost 3,000 jobs, rather than the previously estimated gain of 54,000. SECTOR BREAKDOWN: The Leisure and Hospitality sector LOST the most jobs (19,000), while the Education and Health Services sector GAINED 33,000. COMPANY SIZE: Small firms (under 50 employees) shed 40,000 jobs, while large firms (500+ employees) added 33,000 jobs. WAGE DATA: Annual pay for job-stayers was up 4.5% in September, while pay for job-changers slowed to 6.6% from 7.1% in August. CONTEXT SHUTDOWN IMPACT: The report provides critical data amid a U.S. government shutdown that is delaying the official September jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. WEAKENING TREND: The ADP data reinforces a trend of weakening job creation across most sectors and a generally cautious approach to hiring by employers. #AdpEmploymentSeptember2025

While job seekers are stepping up their negotiation game, employers are worried about keeping up. 💪 88% of professionals feel confident negotiating salary. 😰 74% of hiring managers are worried about meeting those compensation expectations through 2026. 😐 At the same time, starting salaries have generally been leveling off over the past few years – not going up. So, what’s going on? Professionals with high-demand skills are confident about getting what they want, while many employers have been waiting to fill key roles until the need is critical. Here’s our advice for moving forward. 👉 Job seekers: Understand your value in terms of your skills, experience, and location. Check the market data, and be clear on the assets you will bring to a potential employer. Preparation and confidence can be your superpowers. But expect negotiations to be tougher now than they may have been 3-4 years ago. 👉 Hiring managers: If you’ve been struggling to fill key roles for a long time, you may need a reality check on how your compensation stacks up against other employers. Remember that the total compensation package is what matters, including perks, benefits, bonuses, PTO and everything else. So if your budget for salary is coming up short, think about what else you can offer. Check out the brand new 2026 Salary Guide to get ahead of the trends now and set yourself up for success in Q4 and beyond! https://lnkd.in/eHT-WBX6 #SalaryGuide #RHSalaryGuide #RobertHalf