As we've making these A.I. arguments and speaking with investors bullish about the insurance brokerage industry, the most common pushback is that artificial intelligence is going allow the insurance brokers to lay off significant thousands of employees and increase their margins dramatically. When hearing these arguments, it seems to imply that insurance brokers benefit more from A.I.-induced mass layoffs than any other industry. We would instead argue that artificial intelligence seems to be a deflationary multiplier, if the staffing needs to supply better service to customers are lower with the barriers to acquiring those services increasingly cheaper to build, how does one negotiate for higher prices for one's services? In fact, it may be that large customers who are in the midst of their own layoffs and feeling cost pressure from their customers will demand price cuts for services. A company like Willis has long coveted the seemingly unassailable perch of the Marsh/Aon duopoly. Does AI flatten out the way to making that perch attainable? Could Gallagher also ascend? While AI poses disintermediation risk on the lower end of policy size, we are less concerned about this for large policies, but we do have questions about the durability of the brokers pricing power as itself services provided appear to come at a lower cost.
AI Impact on Insurance Brokerages: Deflationary Multiplier or Disintermediation Risk
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