🛑 SCOTUS rules that IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs. My view on what comes next.. 🏛️ How will the White House respond? The White House has planned for this outcome and has a strategy that will rapidly be brought into exection. I expect Executive Orders to come out in short order outlining further action under existing authorities. Specifically, I would expect Section 122 to be used as an immediate stop gap to continue to collect additional tariff reveue. In parallel, my guess is additional 232 investigations will also be announced, though due to procedural process the soonest we can expect these to take effect would be 3-4 months. Section 301 could also be used, but given the longer procedural window (6+ months) it may be less likely to be used. Sec 201 or 338 are possible, but in my view I think the administration has enough tools between 122/232/301 to accomplish their policy objectives. ❓ The Billion Dollar Question- What will happen with refunds? This is anybody's guess. My personal opinion is that for entries that have liquidated, at a minimum we'll likely see refunds for importers that filed a lawsuit under 28 USC 1581(i) at the U.S. Court of International Trade (USCIT). SCOTUS confirmed today that the USCIT has exclusive jurisdiction over IEEPA lawsuits and the USCIT confirmed last year that lawsuits filed under 1581(i) are the proper way to receive IEEPA refunds on liquidated entries. As for unliquidated entries, the clearest remedy is to file a Post Summary Correction. But again, too many unknowns and too soon to tell. If refunds are issued, there is a question on mechanism and timing. At this scale the sheer administrative effort will be crushing to CBP. They may impose some conditions or prioritize refunds that are most easily refundable (those with ACH accounts for example). Long story short, don't hold your breath for your refunds anytime soon. Tune in to NewsNation at 5p ET to hear Exiger CEO Brandon Daniels share his thoughts on the decision and what comes next. https://lnkd.in/ec-43DE3
