From the course: Data-Backed Decision Making
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Correlation and causation
From the course: Data-Backed Decision Making
Correlation and causation
- An editorial letter published in a local newspaper said, "Enough with the wind already. Ever since they installed those big fans on the hill, it's become even windier. Whose bright idea was that? I've noticed that when they're off, we get a nice calm spell. Please turn them off at least on weekends." And yes, the letter was published on April 1st, April Fool's Day. But it does bring to light an important problem that's at the very basis of every conspiracy theory. When we see things in sequence, we often assume a causal connection. Lightning causes thunder, smoking causes cancer. Spicy food causes indigestion. When two things correlate, the mind assumes causation. Correlation is when two things are related, not necessarily connected. The more fire engines you send to put out a fire, the more damaging the fire. The damage is not a result of sending more fire engines, it's the reverse. The more damaging the fire, the bigger the need for more fire engines. A classic example of…
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