Glen Ellyn, Illinois, United States
12K followers 500+ connections

Join to view profile

About

I developed a decision analysis method I call Applied Information Economics (AIE) and it…

Courses by Doug

Articles by Doug

Activity

Experience & Education

  • Hubbard Decision Research

View Doug’s full experience

See their title, tenure and more.

or

By clicking Continue to join or sign in, you agree to LinkedIn’s User Agreement, Privacy Policy, and Cookie Policy.

Publications

  • How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk

    Wiley

    This is the first of a series of planned spin-offs of the original How to Measure Anything book. It explains the flaws in many popular information security risk assessment methods and shows how proper statistical methods can apply even when there seems to be imperfect data, intelligent opponents, and changing technology.

    Other authors
    • Richard Seiersen
    See publication
  • Development Goals Should Enable Decision-Making

    Nature

    This is our "call to action" for improving sustainable development initiatives by using better decision analysis based on probabilistic models. This would replace what (we argue) is an inefficient, arbitrary and easily manipulated set of development goals and deterministic, qualitative, decision making.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities

    John Wiley & Sons

    The Internet contains the largest repository of human knowledge, interests, and activities ever constructed. Yet this powerful tool is still vastly underutilized. Pulse shows how data from millions of daily Google searches, Tweets, and Facebook connections track major economic trends, public opinion and even flu outbreaks in real time—vital information that traditionally costs millions of dollars and lags weeks and months behind the events being measured.

    See publication
  • Problems with Scoring Methods and Ordinal Scales in Risk Assessment

    IBM Journal of Research and Development

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models

    Analytics

    The article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits.

    See publication
  • Modeling Without Measurements: How the Decision Analysis Culture's Lack of Empiricism Reduces its Effectiveness

    OR/MS Today

    In this article my coauthor and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models. Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create. We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed. We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them.

    See publication
  • The Failure of Risk Management: Why Its Broken and How to Fix It

    John Wiley & Sons

    This was my second book and it focused on the quantitative solutions to risk management. I write about how risk management can be measured and how most risk management methods are little more than a placebo. I started writing it at the end of 2007 and by the time the 2008 financial crisis was in full swing, I had already sent the manuscript to the publisher. So the key concepts predated the crisis but were made especially important when the crisis happened.

    See publication
  • It's All an Illusion

    Architecture Boston

    Doug Hubbard reviews his original “anything can be measured” concept for an audience of architects. The message of the reasons why some things still seem intangible or immeasurable are refined and restated in the first article since the release of Hubbard’s seminal book, How to Measure Anything.

    See publication
  • How to Measure Anything: FInding the Value of Intangibles in Business

    John Wiley & Sons

    With all three editions (2007, 2010, and 2014), this book has now sold over 60,000 copies. After seven years, still seems to strike a chord with a lot of managers. I describe why things that seem intangible or immeasurable really aren't if they matter in any way at all to a business or government policy.

    See publication
  • ROIowa

    CIO Magazine

    The State of Iowa implements a new weighted scoring system in this entry in CIO Magazine’s ongoing case study series. While Varon believes weighted scoring methods are a valid decision-making process, Hubbard gives a somewhat more critical view of Iowa’s approach (which is no surprise to Hubbard’s readers).

    Other authors
    • Elana Varon
    See publication
Join now to see all publications

Honors & Awards

  • Fellow

    Royal Society of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce

Organizations

  • Probability Management

    Chair, Decisions and Measurements Practice

    - Present

    Probability Management is the standards organizations for using probabilistic models for representing uncertainty in decision making. http://probabilitymanagement.org/about-us.html

  • American Statistical Association

    Planning committee for “A World Beyond P<0.05: Scientific Method for the 21st Century”

Recommendations received

View Doug’s full profile

  • See who you know in common
  • Get introduced
  • Contact Doug directly
Join to view full profile

Other similar profiles

Explore top content on LinkedIn

Find curated posts and insights for relevant topics all in one place.

View top content

Add new skills with these courses