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Courses by Doug
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How to Measure Anything in AI: Quantitative Techniques for Decision-Making46m
How to Measure Anything in AI: Quantitative Techniques for Decision-Making
By: Doug Hubbard
Articles by Doug
Activity
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Thank you, Ricardo. It was a privilege to have you write the preface, and I’m glad the book has finally arrived.
Thank you, Ricardo. It was a privilege to have you write the preface, and I’m glad the book has finally arrived.
Liked by Doug Hubbard
Experience & Education
Publications
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How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk
Wiley
This is the first of a series of planned spin-offs of the original How to Measure Anything book. It explains the flaws in many popular information security risk assessment methods and shows how proper statistical methods can apply even when there seems to be imperfect data, intelligent opponents, and changing technology.
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Development Goals Should Enable Decision-Making
Nature
This is our "call to action" for improving sustainable development initiatives by using better decision analysis based on probabilistic models. This would replace what (we argue) is an inefficient, arbitrary and easily manipulated set of development goals and deterministic, qualitative, decision making.
Other authorsSee publication -
Pulse: The New Science of Harnessing Internet Buzz to Track Threats and Opportunities
John Wiley & Sons
See publicationThe Internet contains the largest repository of human knowledge, interests, and activities ever constructed. Yet this powerful tool is still vastly underutilized. Pulse shows how data from millions of daily Google searches, Tweets, and Facebook connections track major economic trends, public opinion and even flu outbreaks in real time—vital information that traditionally costs millions of dollars and lags weeks and months behind the events being measured.
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Problems with Scoring Methods and Ordinal Scales in Risk Assessment
IBM Journal of Research and Development
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Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models
Analytics
See publicationThe article I coauthored with Doug Samuelson in Analytics Magazine just came out with the fall issue. “Analysis Placebos: The Difference Between Perceived and Real Benefits of Risk Analysis and Decision Models.” explains why many popular analysis methods and models may have entirely illusory benefits.
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Modeling Without Measurements: How the Decision Analysis Culture's Lack of Empiricism Reduces its Effectiveness
OR/MS Today
See publicationIn this article my coauthor and I point out a general lack of willingness to measure the actual effectiveness of many quantitative models. Just as doctors are often the worst patients, quants are often the last to measure their own performance or the performance of the models they create. We argue that this leads to the unquestioned and continued use of many models that are deeply flawed. We discuss several sources of those problems and what to do about them.
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The Failure of Risk Management: Why Its Broken and How to Fix It
John Wiley & Sons
See publicationThis was my second book and it focused on the quantitative solutions to risk management. I write about how risk management can be measured and how most risk management methods are little more than a placebo. I started writing it at the end of 2007 and by the time the 2008 financial crisis was in full swing, I had already sent the manuscript to the publisher. So the key concepts predated the crisis but were made especially important when the crisis happened.
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It's All an Illusion
Architecture Boston
See publicationDoug Hubbard reviews his original “anything can be measured” concept for an audience of architects. The message of the reasons why some things still seem intangible or immeasurable are refined and restated in the first article since the release of Hubbard’s seminal book, How to Measure Anything.
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How to Measure Anything: FInding the Value of Intangibles in Business
John Wiley & Sons
See publicationWith all three editions (2007, 2010, and 2014), this book has now sold over 60,000 copies. After seven years, still seems to strike a chord with a lot of managers. I describe why things that seem intangible or immeasurable really aren't if they matter in any way at all to a business or government policy.
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ROIowa
CIO Magazine
The State of Iowa implements a new weighted scoring system in this entry in CIO Magazine’s ongoing case study series. While Varon believes weighted scoring methods are a valid decision-making process, Hubbard gives a somewhat more critical view of Iowa’s approach (which is no surprise to Hubbard’s readers).
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Honors & Awards
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Fellow
Royal Society of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce
Organizations
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Probability Management
Chair, Decisions and Measurements Practice
- PresentProbability Management is the standards organizations for using probabilistic models for representing uncertainty in decision making. http://probabilitymanagement.org/about-us.html
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American Statistical Association
Planning committee for “A World Beyond P<0.05: Scientific Method for the 21st Century”
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