David Gaier

Last year I got into a heated debate at dinner with Emily Bell in a very beautiful country house in Oxfordshire, hosted by the wonderful Ditchley Foundation. The thing we were disagreeing about was this: Is nonprofit news funded by philanthropy the only way to save journalism? Or is that orthodoxy (particularly in the US) creating hundreds of journalistically valuable but commercially unsustainable media companies that could fall over the moment a major recession hits or the funders move on - a kind of subprime mortgage crisis of local news? Which is another way of saying: shouldn't we have another proper go at market funded - i.e. reader funded - local journalism in many contexts rather than relying on massive foundation grants? That's the Mill Media approach, and I think it produces a different kind of reporting and a different kind of company. Emily and her co-host Heather Chaplin kindly invited me onto their excellent Columbia Journalism Review podcast to debate that point. They were hoping for a bloody contest but Vanan Murugesan is too polite for that, so we settled for a really interesting discussion. I think this is an enormous issue facing journalism, because if the prevailing orthodoxy is wrong, that will have profound implications. Please have a listen and tell me what you think.

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Trump wants to apply the Venezuela oil blockade model to Iran. But there are fundamental differences that put that strategy into question: - Blocking Iranian oil flows will have economic impact on Tehran, but only in the medium term, possibly as long as 6 months given how its oil is traded. - Iran has weapons and can retaliate by blocking the Strait of Hormuz itself, like it has done since day 1 of the conflict - The dubious reputation of being responsible for blocking a fifth of global oil supplies will now be split between the U.S. and Iran, if not completely shut to the U.S. - is Trump really willing to deprive India and Pakistan of vital oil and LPG? Is he willing to piss if China weeks ahead of a critical meeting with Xi Jinping? - All this suggests to me that a new round of fighting is nearing

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Is the Iran war nearing an end? On October 17th, the below article was posted by the White House. This is when US President Donald Trump doubled down on obtaining $2.00/gallon gas prices. "President Donald J. Trump’s commitment to unleashing American energy production is bringing relief at the gas pump, with gas prices nearing a four-year low across the country," the White House said. What has been happening thus far is the complete opposite of what Donald Trump wanted, especially in a midterm election year. Yields were close to the 4.6 mark, and inflation expectations were shooting. Has all of that, coupled with pressure from the spiking gas prices, coerced the US President to find an off-ramp in order to cool off the conflict and crude? Who would know but oil? And I follow oil prices as the lead indicator for this. For now, both Brent and WTI are down and are staying low. The Maximum Pressure Hypothesis The core hypothesis is that the severe public escalation regarding the Strait of Hormuz is acting as theatrical leverage to force a rapid, back-room agreement with Tehran. During the Spring 2025 trade war, Trump applied extreme economic pressure via massive tariff threats, which China publicly ignored or denied before quietly agreeing to a May 12 deal that rolled tariffs back to a 30% baseline. A nearly identical framework is unfolding now, as Trump just announced a five-day pause on striking Iranian energy infrastructure. He cited "productive conversations" led by envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff with Iran, indicating that despite Iran's defiant public rhetoric, a deal is actively being negotiated behind closed doors. If indeed these are true, one should expect oil to move in tandem, and hence give a lead indication of the times to come. Watch oil, and we will know if there is a resolution.

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This fascinating Local Journalists Index 2025 report from Muck Rack & Rebuild Local News has predictable dark and surprising bright spots: 🌑 DARK: "Less than a quarter-century ago, the United States had about 40 journalists per 100,000 residents on average. Now, the equivalent number is 8.2 Local Journalist Equivalents, about a 75% decline. (Local Journalist Equivalent is a new measure we’re introducing, akin to a Full Time Equivalent or FTE)." 🌑 DARK: "Of the 3,141 counties in the U.S., more than 1,000 counties have less than one Local Journalist Equivalent, leaving a total of 20.6 million people without identifiable local reporting. ...  our search found no local journalists in Boone County, Kentucky, even with a population of 140,000." 🌕 BRIGHT: Lee County, Mississippi, "is in the top 2% of counties nationwide with 52.1 Local Journalist Equivalents per 100,000 residents." 🌕 BRIGHT: In Hooker County, Nebraska, "one intrepid journalist, Gerri Peterson, covers her community so deeply that, in a county of 679 people, the Hooker County Tribune has 726 paying subscribers." My takeaways: - Many people across the country lack reliable information sources. Without paid journalists to cover their communities, they know less about one another in general. That can fray our connections to each other. - When local journalism serves its communities well, people will support it. What are your takeaways? Read the report here: https://lnkd.in/gnuW6rBJ #journalism #media #data #localjournalism

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PR Tips and Tricks for March: "Good quotes sound like real people." Why do so many press releases contain quotes that no human being has ever said out loud? Facts tell a story. Quotes give it a voice. And the more human that voice sounds, the better chance it has of being heard. Here's a little something from the PR shop this month, for a quick read while you're updating your NCAA brackets! Some insights, tips, tricks, and a Q&A with Hearst Connecticut's venerable Dan Haar. Enjoy!

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📣 Minister Rebecca Schulz says Competition Bureau sends the RIGHT signal at the RIGHT time 👏 ✅ fixed it 💪 The Bureau consider ⬆️ more than 400 responses to greenwashing provisions in the new Competition Act, 🫶which states companies environmental claims must be based on adequate & proper testing. 💯 Notice “adequate & proper testing” wasn’t in quotes here. Let’s be clear, no Minister FOR the Environment should take issue with legislation that ensures adequate and proper testing are used in environmental claims. Is she suggesting Alberta doesn’t need a Environment and Protected Areas ministry? Or an Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) either? #compromised #government #resign #schulz #conflictofinterest #fossilfuel #lobby #UCPcorruption #scandal #disgrace https://lnkd.in/gYfWaYFS

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Sen Mike Lee said the BLM’s land-use planning process has become “rigid, slow and often detached” from FLPMA’s guiding principles of multiple use and sustained yield.

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Pensacola ARB approves controversial variances 4-2 for 10-unit development despite packed room of angry neighbors citing parking, density concerns. http://bit.ly/3JLqNQp

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Historian Ms. Kate Epstein argues that tensions between the Pentagon and Anthropic risk weakening the US in the global AI race with China. Drawing parallels with early 20th-century Britain, she warns that political disputes and procurement missteps could undermine technological leadership.

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��I don't expect some demand or proclamation to come out for privatization tomorrow, but the chaos that's created by changing leadership, disrupting the board, I worry,” Stephen Farner, vice president and regional manager for the Laborers’ International Union of North America, told Energy Intelligence. As a publicly owned utility with stable, low-cost financing, government-owned TVA is largely considered an ideal vehicle by investors to support new nuclear energy projects, with help from government and private capital. https://lnkd.in/eATE6Vhg

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Yesterday, a client asked a question that many comms teams are likely grappling with right now: “Given recent events — attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the political climate, the division in how people feel about America — should we post a July 4th message on our company’s social channels?” It’s a great question that speaks to the complex role brands play in public discourse today. Here’s what I'd consider: Know your audience. For this client, the employee base skews conservative, and a 4th of July message is likely expected. Silence could be interpreted as disengagement or even disapproval. For other organizations, the opposite might be true. Start with who you’re trying to reach and what they value. Clarify your intent. Are you celebrating freedom? Expressing gratitude? Supporting those who serve? Don’t post just because it’s on the calendar. Post because it reflects your values and voice. Stay true to your brand. You don’t have to make a political statement, but you do have to be intentional. A message that’s thoughtful, inclusive and human can still honor the holiday without alienating people who may be struggling with what patriotism means right now. Lead with empathy. We’re living through complicated times. Your message doesn’t need to solve that complexity, but it should acknowledge it with care. How are you approaching July 4th messaging this year? I'd love to hear what you're seeing and thinking.

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An excellent article in Defense Opinion reiterating the threat that Chinese dominance of rare earth metals poses to U.S. and allied security, and how vital it is to develop alternatives. https://lnkd.in/eSWx9gev

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Fragmentation might be the most important force influencing communications in 2026. That’s the reductive summary of the first prediction in my 2026 Corporate Affairs Trends Forecast. (Link to the full report in the first comment.) Way back in 2014, my friend Nicco Mele wrote an incredibly prescient book called The End of Big. He foresaw how changing dynamics of communications driven by digital and social would influence society, putting pressure on institutions, enabling populism, and driving polarisation. The result, he suggested, would be greater fragmentation. Applying that thinking, we can see how audiences are becoming smaller, more fragmented, and increasingly gathered around narrow — even niche — interests. Reach, impact, and trust continue to decline for traditional and social media. Audiences are getting smaller, more fragmented, and harder to reach. But niche media — including titles like the FT, Economist, and Wall Street Journal — podcasts, and subscription services like Substack are on the rise. Audiences are fleeing to quality, high-value, trusted outlets, often with greater specialisation. Polarisation and the echo chamber effect are also driving shifts in consumption behaviour. Substack and other subscription platforms are growing swiftly, with paid subscriptions through Substack now totalling an estimated $450 million* while publishers report rapid growth in paid subscriptions. In 2026, fragmentation will accelerate. Trusted, specialised channels and publishers with niche audiences will be as important in corporate communications as more traditional, general audience news sources. Corporate Affairs leaders will need to consider engagement and relationship-building with a wider range of voices, including on platforms like Substack and Tik Tok, where even a creator with a relatively small following could influence the influencers and have disproportionate impact on a communications outcome or reputation. To address this, think practically. Double down on relationship building but go wider than the usual suspects. Focus more on publishers, platforms, and channels with deeper connections into your most critical audiences. Invest in deep understanding of audience channel behaviours and information source preferences. Traditional assumptions are almost certainly, at best, incomplete. This effort can be enabled, hastened, and improved by AI tools. Continue evolving measurement frameworks to value relevant reach and impact among specific audience segments more than traditional, broader reputational metrics. Read more in the full report, and let me know what you think.

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Oct 09, 2025 POLITICO Newsletter Header By Sam Sutton and Nick Niedzwiadek Editor’s note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 5:15 a.m. The federal shutdown is on the verge of ripping a hole in the government’s ability to deliver market-moving reports on inflation and employment. The longer Congress is stuck in a stalemate over government funding, the greater the chance that furloughed Labor Department employees won’t have the data to provide accurate updates on where the economy stands... ...The problem: BLS pegs the monthly jobs report to the week that includes the 12th of the month, which for October means the seven days spanning from this Sunday through the following Saturday. This is so that the measurement period is roughly consistent over time, while accounting for holidays and other calendar considerations. If the shutdown extends into next week, BLS would not be able to collect data from smaller businesses that don’t submit employment information electronically — narrowing the window for what type of employers are included in the monthly survey. The situation would get even dicier if the standoff continues deeper into October, as it would encroach on when the government conducts interviews with tens of thousands of individual households to determine the unemployment rate. It’s not just the jobs report: A prolonged shutdown could also affect the accuracy of this month’s consumer price index, a key inflation barometer produced by BLS. While auto prices, gas prices and other large components of CPI are now submitted electronically by major data providers — and therefore less likely to be impacted by the shutdown — BLS still relies on surveys and shoeleather collection efforts to compile inflation estimates for thousands of food items and other goods. Smaller, less diverse sample sizes make for weaker estimates. A longer shutdown would impede the agency’s ability to gather enough information to produce individual price indexes that feed into CPI, said Omair Sharif, the president of Inflation Insights. And if lawmakers fail to reach an agreement until late October, that could force BLS to scrap its inflation report for October. “If we’re up to October 22, October 23? That — to me — is almost a cutoff point where we should start to think [that] we’re probably not going to have an October CPI,” Sharif said.

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A new Harper’s Magazine investigation examines the outsized – and often overlooked – role of public utility commissions in shaping what Americans pay for electricity and gas. A new Harper’s Magazine investigation reveals how these commissions across the US have been plagued by regulatory capture, revolving doors, ethics scandals, and deep industry influence – leaving customers paying more while utilities rake in profits. https://lnkd.in/gbQhPQEN 

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Sanctions stopped being a moral instrument. They became an oil-price control knob. Meduza summarized the U.S. Treasury license that temporarily allowed sales of Russian oil already loaded on tankers, with a clear public framing: keep global energy prices from spiking. Watch the mechanism. Not the rhetoric. When Washington opens a narrow window like this, it is not “going soft.” It is telling the market: don’t panic, supply will not vanish overnight. That is crisis management logic, applied at state scale. The part that should interest businesses and investors is how fast the sanction regime now behaves like a liquidity facility. Authorities can tighten. They can loosen. They can do it in 30-day increments. They can do it without changing the underlying political posture. If you operate across jurisdictions, you cannot treat sanctions as a static list. You need a playbook that assumes policy will oscillate, and that your counterparties will test every seam. That playbook has two jobs: 1) keep you compliant when the window closes, 2) keep you solvent when the window opens. Sources: https://lnkd.in/dQrPXx8n https://lnkd.in/dyNnn4bP

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