Danny Mintzer

So PJM capacity prices hit the price cap again, which was a surprise to no one who has been observing the market. As we've written about extensively, the only solution to the cost problem while also getting new supply online is to channel revenues to new entry without providing revenues to the rest of the supply stack. A few notes: * To those talking about extending the price caps: you fundamentally cannot implement a price cap below the cost of new entry and then ask why new entry isn't coming into the market * To those listening to what the IPP and generation associations are saying: they have a clear incentive to keep capacity prices high, so you need to read their comments through that lens. * To those assessing the future revenue potential of generation assets in PJM: you need to be aware that it is politically untenable for prices to rise to the cost of new entry and stay there. * To those blaming datacenters: load growth was coming and this was going to happen no matter what...datacenters just accelerated the underlying reality. Even with sufficient new supply to meet demand, capacity prices STILL have to rise to the level needed to support the new supply. SUMMARIZING: high capacity prices are both necessary to incentivize new generation and unavoidable in an era of load growth. And it is politically unpalatable to allow prices to stay high, but economically impossible for them to stay low. The only solution is to provide direct financial support to new entry outside of the capacity market. https://lnkd.in/gXKXe4Ck

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NY prices $950M bond offering to fund Power Authority electricity supply Noah Schwartz • Commodity Insights Thursday, July 17, 2025 1:58 PM ET The New York Energy Finance Development Corporation is issuing $950 million in bonds to fund a 30-year supply of electricity for the New York Power Authority. The deal is the first time New York has used a prepayment transaction for power purchase agreements, New York Power Authority (NYPA) President and CEO Justin Driscoll told Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, in a statement. NYPA officials said on July 16 that they expect the deal, under which the public power authority will then purchase electricity from the Energy Finance Development Corporation, will provide its customers savings on renewable energy. "We will achieve 10% savings for our renewable energy purchases for our customers from now into the future, and it will make it more affordable for our customers to enter into renewable projects, knowing that they can achieve this 10% savings on top of whatever price they are being offered," NYPA CFO Adam Barsky told Platts. NYPA originally hoped to make the deal in March or April, but the market conditions after the announcement of President Donald Trump's tariffs proved unfavorable, according to Barsky. "We had to sideline the deal until markets became more favorable, which only occurred in the last few weeks. We were all set up ready to go," Barsky said. NYPA officials said these types of prepaid transactions could play a larger role in the state's energy transition, as policymakers such as Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) have stressed the importance of reaching the state's climate goals affordably. "We've done a lot to diversify our credits and ways in which we access the market to be innovative to come up with different types of financings that either result in allowing NYPA to do larger transactions or enter into more projects," Barsky said. "This is just a continuation of that, just looking for better ways to achieve the goals for New York and the energy transition. Making sure this all remains affordable is really at the top of the list." The deal could also serve as a way for the state to ensure that it can still finance renewable projects after the federal budget enacted July 4 terminated the Inflation Reduction Act's Section 45Y clean electricity production credit and Section 48E clean electricity investment credit for those projects. "We need solutions like this to offset the loss of the federal support in order to have these projects remain affordable so that they can keep going on," Yamini Kalidindi, vice president of NYPA's enterprise portfolio management office, said. The public power utility has expanded its role in New York's energy transition after state policymakers passed the Build Public Renewables Act in 2023 as part of the following year's budget, allowing NYPA to build, own and operate renewable energy projects.

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The PJM’s fast-track interconnection process has drawn in 26.6 GW of proposals from 94 different applicants. ⚡️ Why is this important? The PJM Interconnection’s Reliability Resource Initiative (RRI) is an attempt at fixing thinning power supply margins, which are largely due to power plant retirements and increased electricity demand. If not addressed, PJM is in danger of having capacity shortfalls as soon as next year. The RRI will allow PJM to add up to 50 projects to the new interconnection Transition Cycle 2. Proposed projects include both new and updated nuclear facilities, natural gas-fired power plants, and battery storage sites. 💡 Specific proposals include 700 MW of capacity from LS Power and 450 MW of power uprates from AlphaGen. 👍 How do you think PJM can best fill in the gaps? Share your thoughts below. ⬇️ Source: Utility Dive, 3/27/2025 Disclaimer: This post is made for entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this post constitutes investment advice. #powergrid #energytransition #electricity #technology #innovation

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Gridlock at the Gate: PJM, ERCOT & the Interconnection Bottleneck The largest grid operator in the U.S., PJM, has over 3,000 active projects in its interconnection queue—more than four other ISOs combined. And while ERCOT was once the fast lane for developers, it’s now facing the same gridlock as the rest of the country. In this Power Plays episode, Spearmint Energy’s Andrew Waranch and Gina Wolf break down what’s really happening behind the scenes: ⚡ Why interconnection delays are growing ⚡ How Texas is no longer the exception ⚡ What it takes to build ISO supply in today’s market 🔗 Tune in now to hear how developers are navigating the new normal: https://lnkd.in/gwhNAzAK #PowerPlaysPodcast #PJM #ERCOT #CleanEnergy #Infrastructure #CoBank

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I’m a cup-half-full sort, so after a rough month, ICYMI here are a few great clean energy stories from the week: 1) largest hydro deal ever —3 GW— from Google; 2) electrolyte breakthrough from 24M Technologies that could pave the way for 1,000-miles-per-charge lithium ion batteries; and fusion may be closer than we think— try 2027 for first net energy delivery and early 2030s for adding fusion to the grid, per Commonwealth Fusion Systems.

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Evercore senior managing director Jonathon Kaufman recently spoke at the Aurora Energy Transition Forum: U.S. Energy at a Crossroads – Dominance or Disruption? The forum brought together senior leaders from across the U.S. energy sector to discuss the risks and realities shaping the future of energy transition. Jonathan joined fellow industry experts to share insights on the evolving dynamics of innovation, policy and investment driving change across the sector. Thank you to Aurora Energy Research for an insightful discussion on the transformation of U.S. energy!

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Today, the Commission approved the next phase of the NY-Sun Program, acknowledging that we are on track to meet our ambitious 10 GW distributed solar target and doing so under budget, saving ratepayers $421 million. New York’s distributed solar market has matured over the last two decades from the launch of the Renewable Portfolio Standard to the NY-Sun Megawatt Block Program. Form the start, the Megawatt Block program was intentionally structured to scale down incentives over time, supporting the growth of a self-sustaining solar market in New York. The Commission’s action today reflects this progress and is proof that measured, thoughtful planning can yield financial dividends for New Yorkers. To provide continuity and gradually phaseout the current incentives, $150 million of the surplus funding will be directed towards projects that serve low-income customers, supporting 500 MW of solar beyond the 10 GW target. The remaining funds will be used to provide relief to ratepayers for other clean energy programs pending before the Commission and offset other State initiatives including those for building electrification and energy efficiency. The Commission remains committed to supporting the solar industry and New Yorkers alike through programs like Statewide Solar for All and the Value of Distributed Energy Resources (VDER) tariff. Today’s action builds on NY-Sun’s proven model and highlights the Commission's commitment to energy affordability while ensuring a strong solar market in New York. Read more about the Commission's action here: https://lnkd.in/eTray_ic

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Dominion Energy’s latest filing says a lot about where the energy market is headed — the company is seeking proposals for nearly 20 new solar, wind, and storage projects across Virginia and North Carolina. That kind of request matters. It shows that utilities want renewables — not just for sustainability, but because they make sense for reliability, affordability, and meeting growing demand. The good news? The market momentum is strong. Utilities are leaning in. Policy just needs to keep pace. https://lnkd.in/gYVc3Det #RenewableEnergy #CleanEnergy #EnergyPolicy

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Brookfield’s latest report, ‘From Speed to Scale: The Next Decade of Power’, highlights a defining market trend: electricity demand is accelerating faster than at any time in modern history and it’s creating durable, long-term opportunities across our portfolio. Key themes our portfolio companies are leaning into over the next five years include: ⚡Global electricity demand, driven by electrification, industrial growth, and AI, has been faster than expected, with a 25% increase occurring in just four years instead of the decade forecast, leaving supply struggling to keep pace. This creates a significant opportunity for developers of power with strong ready to build pipelines. 🤝Large corporates are now anchor buyers of clean power, driving long-dated PPAs and contracted cash flows. Our platforms, working together, can deliver scale and certainty for the largest and most sophisticated buyers of power. ☀️Renewables are now the cheapest and fastest form of new generation in most markets — enabling rapid deployment and repeatable development investment opportunities for our developers, regardless of the political climate. 🌊No single solution can meet today’s growing customer demand – an ‘any and all’ approach to energy is required. Value is unlocked by integrating different technologies including renewables, storage and hydro to form resilient, diversified power systems. 🏭As demand grows, reliable low-carbon baseload becomes essential. Technologies - including nuclear and CCS + gas - can deliver reliability alongside decarbonization will be critical. The next decade isn’t just about the energy transition, it’s about scaling power systems that match real-world demand, while also building infrastructure that can still meet our global needs post-2050. Our portfolio companies are well positioned to lead where capital, capability, and operational excellence matter most. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/efGiiNFc

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The BNEF Summit San Francisco is one of my favorite conferences as it brings together excellent content with an impressive list of speakers and attendees. On day 1 of this year’s event, most of the conversations revolved around the increased demand for data centers caused by AI. Topics discussed: · Energy and Technology in the 21st Century: From Innovation to Prosperity · The Energy Transition Under Pressure - Power Demand, Politics and What Comes Next · Can the Grid Keep Up with Rising Power Demand? · Power Surge: What’s Driving US Electricity Demand · Powering the Cloud: Evolutions in Energy Procurement · 24/7 Clean Power – Scaling the Next Wave of Energy Technologies · Capital at Scale: Funding Hyperscale Data Center Expansion Key takeaways: · Big Tech borrowed more to fund data centers in the last four months of 2025 than in prior three years to fund data center build out  · During the dot-com period, coal companies expected a similar electricity boom, which led to overcapacity and bankruptcy  · Efficiency of data center software and system architecture is a current focus, whereas in years past it was on hardware  · Data center efficiency will quadruple each year, which could lead to overcapacity and failure as they will not get enough customers and make less revenue and profit than projected · Despite the low prices, natural gas is not the solution as there is a multi-year waitlist to purchase new gas turbines · Data centers are investing in energy storage, and renewables, as well as seriously considering microgrids, recommissioning nuclear power plants and/or building new geothermal and nuclear power plants · Nuclear power is unlikely to be the panacea as no SMRs have been built yet and fusion is still far into the future  · Other renewable options face major challenges, including timing to received environmental permitting and grid interconnection · North Dakota, Nebraska and New Mexico have made investments to increase power supply and replace coal with cheap wind, leading to lower customer prices · Electricity affordability is a key focus for consumers and politicians, which will lead to pressure on regulators to implement a tariff structure that ensures data center operators pay at least their fair share, if not more, for electricity  · Hyperscalers have the capital to fund the upfront electricity infrastructure buildout and often are delivering data center proposals with energy contracts to cover their power load   · However, in addition to take-or-pay contracts, data center operators should provide surety bonds to prevent other customers from being saddled with the energy buildout costs, should data center operators go bankruptcies and not be able to pay the full infrastructure costs #ai; #datacenters; #hyperscalers; #infrastructure; #power Bloomberg BloombergNEF EcoTech Capital Cy Obert Jeffrey Lipton Albert Cheung Demian Flowers Jon Baker Paul Benjamin https://lnkd.in/ggJWdbm4

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⚡ New ACP analysis on PJM sends a clear signal: Failing to add new clean power will significantly raise electricity costs and strain grid reliability across the PJM region. The report shows that without timely deployment of clean energy and storage, households and businesses could face thousands of dollars in higher power bills, driven by reliance on older, higher-cost generation as demand accelerates (data centers, electrification, advanced manufacturing). Clean power isn’t just a climate issue — it’s a cost, reliability, and competitiveness issue. 📄 Worth a read: https://lnkd.in/gna_iFM8

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