Daniel Schreiber

Finding "The One" (And Then a Few More): The Marriage Problem and Legal Tech Investing During my years in M&A (where deals were often spoken of as "marriages," where parties obsessed over "compatibility," and we occasionally had to quietly annul a transaction gone wrong), I kept thinking about a problem I had first encountered as an economist. The Marriage Problem. You have a fixed number of candidates, evaluated sequentially, and once you pass, they are gone. Move too fast and you are saying your vows with someone who is mediocre. Wait too long, and your ideal match is already off the market. The optimal search strategy (and I won’t dare to reproduce the math that gets you there in the hallowed halls of LinkedIn) is to spend the first 37% (1/e, for the math aficionados like me) of your search purely observing. That observation set builds your benchmark. Then move when you see something that clears it. It is a heuristic, not a formula, and we are not wedded to applying it mechanically. But watching deal after deal in M&A, I kept seeing it play out in real time. The acquirers who moved too early, anchoring on the first promising target. The ones who deliberated over several deals so long that all opportunities went to other bidders. The rare ones who had done enough deals to know exactly when they found something special. That same instinct shapes how we operate as legal tech investors. We have spent months calibrating before deploying. Taking meetings we did not expect to convert. Watching deals we were not ready to do. The 37%. Now, when the opportunity clears the bar, we can move with conviction. But unlike the classical problem, we are not just choosing one "spouse." We are building a portfolio, which means the benchmark itself evolves with each investment we make, and we lean hard on our Unrivaled Advisory Network (to whom we owe an enormous debt of gratitude!) to pressure-test whether an opportunity is genuinely better than everything we have seen before, or whether we are just getting swept up in the romance of a good pitch. M&A taught me that the best deals feel inevitable in hindsight but require conviction in the moment, and that no deal is so compelling you should not stress-test it with people smarter than you. At GrayHair Venture Partners, we are not wedded to any single business model in legal tech. But we know what we are looking for. And when we see it, we are putting a ring on it. 💍 Oleg L.

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Most people on panels like this are advisors, attorneys, strategists and founders. Deniz Acay is in the seat. As CTO of Karibu.AI, he’s making real-time decisions about what to build, what to secure, what to defer, and what to trust - with a growth-stage team, a real budget, and a product that’s moving fast. Karibu is building a guidance layer for high-stakes workforces in healthcare: turning facility SOPs into conversational AI so agency nurses walk in prepared and facilities stay protected. Having a highly secure platform meeting HIPAA standards is a requirement with their customers. Deniz built data isolation into the architecture from day one - not because he had time for it, but because the alternative wasn’t acceptable. Before Karibu, he co-founded Botanalytics, where he built system architecture capable of processing 40,000 messages per second on a single node. He knows what it takes to build for scale in a secure environment without the luxury of hindsight. He’s on this panel because what founders actually need isn’t more expert opinion from the outside. They need to hear from someone who’s living the same tradeoff decisions they’re facing - right now, with the same constraints - and who’s willing to say exactly how those decisions get made. On May 20th, he’ll share insights on critical cyber security decisions early stage founders need to consider in order not to suffer data breaches that could kill the company. I am excited to be moderating this panel with Deniz, Eric O'Neill, Abhishek K. Bansal and Morvareed Salehpour, Esq. Free. 60 minutes. Register → link in comments.

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*Neoclouds are the weak link in the AI story.* Concentrated suppliers (basically Nvidia) Concentrated customers (OpenAI, Microsoft, Anthropic) Debt-fueled expansion (it’s infra) Weird depreciation — do we really expect this year’s Blackwell GPUs to last 8 years? If there’s ever a slowdown in OpenAI or Anthropic’s ability to hoover up revenue, they’ll be fine. Nvidia will be fine. But the neoclouds — and their debt and equity holders — probably won’t be. Yes, 96% of CoreWeave’s contracts are “take-or-pay,” but it’s only ~70% for Scaleway, for instance. On the positive side, Reuters says they already have ~20% of the GPU market and are projected to grow revenues 7× in the next 5 years. An amazing pivot from Bitcoin-mining to AI. 🔗 https://lnkd.in/gEaReFtt #Neoclouds #AIInfrastructure #CloudComputing #GenerativeAI #Nvidia #CoreWeave #Scaleway #OpenAI #Anthropic #AIEconomy #CapitalMarkets #TechFinance #AIInvesting #GPUs #CloudStrategy

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What is a "buyer-builder"? It's the founder archetype we back at Daring Ventures. Buyer-builders have lived experience and domain expertise on the industries they are building in. They've felt the friction and know which problems to address and who to build for. They don't need to do customer discovery because they've experienced it first-hand. Outsiders spend years and millions figuring out what buyer-builders already know. We started The Builders Series to profile the ones doing it right. This edition: Ara Mahdessian and Vahe Kuzoyan of ServiceTitan. Ara and Vahe did not need to be told that contractors were underserved. They grew up watching it. Their fathers, competent skilled operators, losing hours every week to paper invoices, missed calls, and work that software should have absorbed years earlier. Full piece on Forward This 👇

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"We've become so insular in who we talk to and listen to, and I didn't realize how much that was keeping me in tunnel vision and tunnel thinking." Seth Levine, Co-Author of Capital Evolution and Partner at Foundry, talks about seeking out more diversity of thought on Tech Scenes Unplugged. #venturebacked #vcbacked #venturecapital #leadership #ceo #founder #operatingsystem #peakOS #foundermode

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Important insights on the intersection of app store accountability acts and state privacy laws from my colleagues Justin Yedor and Tucker Sarchio.

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Honored and excited to partner with Drew Baglino and the incredible team at Heron Power as they re-imagine the electric grid for the modern world. Power in America is not zero sum. We deserve access to cheap and abundant electricity and we should win the AI race. And we must build the capacity to manufacture critical technology here at home. When faced with existential challenges, we deploy technology against them. And we win.

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One of my agentic commerce predictions for 2026 in this recent Forbes piece: Matt Nichols, General Partner at Commerce Ventures, notes that the mechanics are already in motion. Looking ahead, he predicts that this year, "Agentic commerce transaction volume reaches meaningful levels as consumers advance from research to buying on AI platforms. 2026 will be the year that transactions are completed in these platforms." To this prediction, Nichols adds another: retailers will be forced to build "super-feeds" specifically for AI platforms. “These data feeds may involve monetary transactions that could include payments to AI platforms or payments to the retailer/brand (depending on balance of power).” https://lnkd.in/g65RAerA

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Big news from the Vermilion Cliffs Ventures portfolio today. Keycard acquired Anchor.dev 🎉 🎉 🎉 🎉 As the talent wars in AI heat up, we’re seeing more early-stage teams join forces in thoughtful, founder-first ways. Not just traditional acquisitions, but combinations of people, product, and vision. When funds stay close to their founders, these outcomes can be incredibly powerful. This acquisition brings two Vermilion portfolio companies together to accelerate autonomous coding agents in production. Anchor brings deep infrastructure experience from places like Cloudflare, GitHub, and Heroku, with a focus on making identity primitives automatic, reliable, and invisible to developers. That expertise now lives directly inside Keycard’s agent-native platform. Together, they’re enabling: Application-layer policy enforcement at runtime: Policy is evaluated per task and per tool call, where agents actually execute actions, rather than at login, the network boundary, or through protocol-specific proxies. Protocol-agnostic support for the full agent toolchain: Agent behavior is governed consistently across MCP workflows, CLI commands, APIs, and agent-generated tools, enabling the long tail of applications and patterns used in modern software development. Explicit tool governance with full visibility: Teams define which tools an agent is allowed to use, and every tool invocation, successful or failed, is evaluated, logged, and attributed to a specific agent and task with support for additional metadata. Identity-bound, task-scoped credentials: Static secrets are replaced with short-lived credentials issued per task and cryptographically bound to the agent and the application being accessed. Portable agent configuration across environments: Agents are configured once and can be used across laptops, sandboxes, and production systems without reconfiguration, using cryptographically attested runtime context. Autonomous workflows with built-in guardrails: Routine actions proceed without human involvement, while sensitive operations can still require explicit approval, enabling autonomy without sacrificing security or control. From my perspective as an investor in both companies, this combination makes perfect sense. Agents are becoming first-class actors in modern software systems, and autonomy without identity, governance, and visibility is a non-starter. Keycard is building the foundation that lets agents move safely from local development into production. Huge congrats to Ian Livingstone, Matthew Creager, Jared Hanson, and the Keycard team, and to Wesley Beary, Ben Burkert and the Anchor crew. Proud of both teams and excited to see what they build together. And thank you to Kyt Dotson at SiliconANGLE & theCUBE for the great coverage! https://lnkd.in/gH-i8vRu Onward. 👯‍♀️

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Welcome back to #MathMonday. It's pretty clear to us at Veteran Ventures Capital that we're back in conflicts of attrition—something many of us thought was buried in the dustbin of history after the "precision" war against #Iraq in 1991. Two things drove that home this weekend. 1. The exchange rate is breaking #math. Robert #Magyar Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, recently put a price tag on the new way of war: roughly $878 in matériel to kill a single Russian soldier. The exchange ratio is a staggering 400 Russians lost for every one Ukrainian (according to Brovid). Drones now account for 70–80% of all battlefield casualties on that front, and FPVs alone struck 33,019 Russian troops in December 2025—the first month verified Russian losses from Ukrainian drones exceeded Russian recruitment. Some context on how unprecedented those numbers are: - #WWII U.S. Army Ordnance estimates: ~25,000–50,000 small-arms rounds per enemy combatant killed. - #Vietnam: cited figures climbed past 200,000 rounds per kill. - #British heavy AAA early in the V-1 campaign: roughly 2,500 shells per rocket downed—before the proximity fuze collapsed that ratio to around 100. The cost-per-casualty curve has been bending the wrong way for eight decades. #Ukraine just bent it back—violently. That's why it's a good thing the U.S. is sending more soldiers into Ukraine to learn from them firsthand. 2. Even the "losses" are wins. Ukrainian milbloggers have begun counting it as a kill when an FPV is destroyed by an incoming missile—on the logic that both pieces of hardware are gone, and the exchange still favors them. Makes sense when the Russians have to expend a $100K missile to take down a $1K drone. They're right, and the self-reflection of that math is sobering. We're firing $3M+ Patriot PAC-3 interceptors at $35K Shaheds, resulting in us running a ~100-to-1 deficit—and the Middle East burned through 800+ PAC-3 MSEs in three days in last year's engagement. Unknown what a good unclassified estimate for the current conflict, but it's a big number. Two takeaways: 1) As I've said often, the old adage needs an update. "Amateurs talk tactics, experts talk logistics" should now read: Amateurs talk war, experts talk supply chain. Ukraine is producing over 8 million FPVs per year. Russia claims up to 19,000 drones per day. Whoever scales their factories—and protects them—wins. 2) Cheap defense at single-digit percentages of offense cost is a brand-new kind of deterrent. Being on the wrong side of the cost curve may look good in the short term, but it's really a depletion race to the bottom of your own checkbook. The strategists, operators and investors who internalize this shift first will own the next decade of defense. #MathMonday #VeteranVenturesCapital #DefenseTech #DroneWarfare #AsymmetricWarfare #DefenseInvesting #NationalSecurity #FutureOfWarfare #MilitaryInnovation #SupplyChain

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Figma's stock surge in its IPO, rapidly reaching a market cap of $45B, showcases the immense appetite for innovative design tools in today's digital landscape. This instant success reinforces the importance of evaluating market demand and user engagement in investment strategies. At ElevenX Capital, we emphasize understanding the long-term trajectory of disruptive technologies as part of our approach. As the landscape evolves, how do you assess the sustainability of such rapid valuations? #investing #innovation #venturecapital #entrepreneurship

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In our view, the potential combination of CMCSA and WBD would solve for two structural issues that have constrained Comcast's DTC execution: (1) it adds true IP density through HBO's brand and the Warner/DC libraries and (2) it scales global DTC efficiently by layering Max's subscriber base and product maturity into Peacock's/Sky's footprint. As a combined company, WBD and Comcast would have the potential to be a true global juggernaut supported by premium sports, general entertainment and children's content.

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Every #VentureStudio GP knows some portfolio bets won’t hit. That's expected - and it's one of the reasons studios are such a powerful vehicle for innovation. And while a venture's failure might be what's visible to the outsider, what keeps them up at night isn’t failure at the venture level — it’s failure at the systemic level within the studio. One bad entity design. One IP misstep. One governance gap. That’s how studio operations fall apart. We break down how to spot (and fix) these cracks before they turn into fault lines in our latest paper, "The GP Dilemma" - DM me and I'll send you a copy!

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One of my favorite celebrity x AI collaborations lately has been the McConaughey/BroadLight Capital investment and partnership with ElevenLabs, an AI startup leading in virtual vocal replicas and text-to-audio technology. However, The Wall Street Journal article below shows that McConaughey and his team have developed a deep AI strategy that goes well beyond simply gaining investment exposure to AI tools.   On its surface, the investment and partnership looks like a strong on-brand pairing. McConaughey’s voice and persona have been culturally embedded for decades. ElevenLabs wants to work with people who have real visibility and brand recognition to help develop products that can achieve meaningful scale and adoption.   The investment alone is smart. Getting in early with an AI company you trust helps preserve control over narrative and rights. It also gives McConaughey and his family a path to monetize this emerging category of AI licensing income for decades to come.   But they did not stop there. McConaughey's team has systematically pursued trademark filings tied to his name, likeness, and voice in an effort to deter, or at least slow through enforcement pressure, widespread unlicensed use across major AI platforms. They openly acknowledge the legal uncertainty around whether trademark law alone can prevent unauthorized McConaughey replicas on AI platforms. Even so, at a time when NIL and AI legislation is still evolving at both the state and federal levels, this approach provides a practical blueprint for how public figures can actively push back against open, unlicensed exploitation of their persona.   There is also a takeaway for AI startups here. ElevenLabs was smart to align with a public figure who brings real buy-in as an investor, partner, and ambassador. With the right alignment, companies can build credibility with the market and with other talent, and create the potential for a defensible moat around trusted, permission-based celebrity licensing.   https://lnkd.in/g7KvwrFf

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Most founders treat warm intros like a nice-to-have. They think if the deck is strong enough, the right investor will notice. They’re wrong. Investors don’t have a filtering problem. They have a trust problem. Every week, they see hundreds of decks. Some great. Many decent. A few even brilliant. But that’s not the bar. The real question isn’t “Is this startup promising?” It’s “Do I trust this founder enough to take the call, stake my reputation, and possibly invest?” That’s what a warm intro solves. It reduces the trust gap. When a credible founder, respected operator, or trusted LP vouches for you, you’re no longer a stranger in someone’s inbox—you’re a filtered signal from someone they already believe in. • Without that credibility transfer, the burden of proof falls entirely on your deck. And no matter how strong it is, most investors won’t roll the dice if no one is standing behind it. But here’s the part most people miss: You don’t get warm intros. You earn them-long before you need them. Because warm intros aren’t just about access. They’re about shared experience, long-game relationships, and quiet reputational equity. The founders who raise well are the ones who tend the garden: They help others before asking for help. They’re kind when no one’s watching. They make time for feedback, referrals, second looks. They show up generously—and consistently. Fundraising isn’t a visibility game. It’s a credibility game. And credibility isn’t built in the room. It’s built over time. This post is a primer on that blind spot: What warm intros actually signal to investors. Why founder-to-founder intros beat cold outreach every time. How to turn a “no” into long-term trust. Why using brokers or “fundraising middlemen” almost always backfires. How to build a reputation that makes capital feel like a shared bet—not a leap of faith. If you want to raise smarter-and faster-understand this: Warm intros aren’t about playing favorites. They’re about reducing friction in a world where trust is scarce and time is shorter. And the best time to start building trust? Before you need it. #startups #fundraising #venturecapital #warmintros #founderlife #networking #trustdriven

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Ruthless velocity is our core cultural value. We will work more and more efficient hours than anyone. Nobody gets hired unless they were the psycho who outworked everyone at their last job. These hours become ever more efficient as the AI dev tools, such as Claude Code, continue to mature. Great feature here of Vulcan Technologies’s use of AI not only in product but in dev. Our completely non-threatening “opponents” still code the old fashioned way or worse offer only laughably slow and expensive non-technical consultants. We offer a team of consultant engineers, all trained at the top schools and firms, and now also equipped with the top tools.

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🚨NEW EPISODE: Recorded live at FUTURE TITANS 2026 - Jeff Perry of Carta sat down with the iconic Seth Levine, co-founder of Foundry. Seth has been in venture for 25 years, built Foundry from scratch as an emerging manager himself, and has backed about 50 emerging manager funds through his fund of funds. He has genuinely seen every side of this table. They went deep on building Foundry, why VCs are in the influence business, not the decision business, and why the concentration problem in venture is not only bad for LPs, but also for the innovation ecosystem overall. And why Seth's new book, Capital Evolution, is so important for the future of America. 🎧 Links to listen... Apple: https://lnkd.in/ehQUQ2EM Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eU4FExpg

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Most people see AI for kids as personalized stories. That framing is too small. The bigger opportunity is persistent character memory, evolving worlds, and children as creators instead of passive consumers. The generative AI opportunity is to create less to consume. When a story remembers you and grows with you, it becomes a generative platform. John Kobs and the Giant team understand this deeply. As a girl dad, he lives the customer experience every day, at home, on playgrounds and at school pickup. It’s a conversation we parents have everyday about preparing our kids for the world of AI. That perspective shows up in the product and in the ambition behind it. As a girl dad, I can relate. That is why we backed Giant. AI native storytelling will create the next generation of media franchises, built interactive from day one.

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Hexcel Adds Independent Director in Deal With Activist Investor "Hexcel added a new independent director to its board in a move that avoids a potential proxy fight for the aerospace materials company with activist investor Vision One Fund. "As part of an agreement between the two sides, Vision One will withdraw their nominees to the board that were to be voted on at the company's annual shareholder meeting. Vision One will also support Hexcel's board nominees, and agree to certain standstill restrictions and mutual non-disparagement provisions, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday. "The new director, former Kaman Chief Executive Officer Neal Keating, was appointed effective Tuesday." Keating's experience in aerospace may make him an ideal director choice. Yet from a bigger picture perspective, I wonder if this settlement is the right move for investors. More and more activist campaigns are settling rather than running the full process of a proxy fight with typically a greater number of directors nominated by the activist. Hopefully, activists are becoming like the public company boards they battle, i.e. more focused on reaching consensus than big results. #governancearbitrage #proxyfights #corporategovernance #activistinvesting #valuecreation https://lnkd.in/gazBUGFp

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